Sunday, November 4, 2012

KTFX [050300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 050300
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
759 PM MST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/04/2012 M52 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH WAS REPORTED ALONG WITH THE
GUST TO 52 MPH.


&&

$$

CZ

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KTFX [050255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 050255
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
755 PM MST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0721 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/04/2012 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS AT 42 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH.


&&

$$

CZ

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KLIX [050147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLIX 050147
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1108 AM HAIL 3 NNE SLIDELL 30.32N 89.75W
11/04/2012 E0.88 INCH ST. TAMMANY LA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CONVEYED TO PEARL RIVER FIRE DEPT AND NOTIFIED VIA
NWSCHAT. REPORTED TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE WHISPERWOOD
SUBDIVISION NORTH OF I-12 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 11.


&&

$$

24/RR

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KLIX [050140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 050140
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
740 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1108 AM HAIL 3 NNE SLIDELL 30.32N 89.75W
11/04/2012 E0.88 INCH ST. TAMMANY LA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CONVEYED TO PEARL RIVER FIRE DEPT AND NOTIFIED VIA
NWSCHAT.


&&

$$

24/RR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ATLANTIC STATES...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE PROMINENT
POSITIVELY-TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z MON. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES WERE DETECTED BY SATELLITE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITHIN WLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH AND A SUB-TROPICAL JET
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TO NRN FL. A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN SC EARLY THIS EVENING AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH
NERN SC ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND OFFSHORE BY MID EVENING.
A TRAILING BOUNDARY THROUGH SRN GA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL
ADVANCE SEWD INTO NRN FL AND THE NERN GULF TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE SOON AND THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER LAND AND THE ATTENDANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GREATLY THIS EVENING. A
SMALL AREA OF LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY /5%/ IS ALL THAT REMAINS
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH THIS LOCATED OVER NERN SC AND
FAR SERN NC WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING. THE STRONGEST REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 02-03Z.

...SWRN MO/ERN OK/WRN-SRN AR...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS IT DIGS SSEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN KS EARLY
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD REACHING WEST CENTRAL MO BY
12Z MON. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND E OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE KS/MO LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER SWRN MO INTO FAR ERN OK/WRN AR
WHERE ASCENT/MIDLEVEL COOLING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PLAINS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 100-350 J PER KG/ AND
EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 11/05/2012

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KCHS [050015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 050015
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
715 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE CHARLESTON 32.75N 79.87W
11/04/2012 M41 MPH AMZ330 SC MESONET

36 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT FORT SUMTER.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200805

$$

BDC

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KCHS [050014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 050014
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE CHARLESTON 32.75N 79.87W
11/04/2012 M41 MPH AMZ330 SC MESONET

36 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT FORT SUMPTER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200805

$$

BDC

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KILM [050010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 050010
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
710 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.05W
11/04/2012 E1.75 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

COVERED CAR AND TOOK TREE LIMBS DOWN ON WACHESAW RD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200386

$$

RGZ

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KILM [050003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 050003
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
703 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 2 W MURRELLS INLET 33.56N 79.08W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF BROOKGREEN GARDENS


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200385

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042356
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 2 WSW MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.08W
11/04/2012 E1.75 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

NEW RIVER RD AND OLD RIVER RD OFF OCEAN HIGHWAY


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200384

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042351
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.05W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

COVERED GROUND ABOUT 2 INCHES THICK ON WACHESAW RD NEAR
PRINCE CREEK


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200383

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042345
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL GARDEN CITY 33.59N 79.01W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC

SOUTH BUSINESS 17TH AND SALTERS COVE


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200382

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042337
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.05W
11/04/2012 E1.75 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

HIGHWAY 17 IN MURRELLS INLET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200381

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042327
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 1 SSW MURRELLS INLET 33.54N 79.06W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200380

$$

RGZ

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KILM [042322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042322
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 4 SW BRIARCLIFFE ACRES 33.76N 78.80W
11/04/2012 E0.75 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200379

$$

RGZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2100

ACUS11 KWNS 042310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042310
TXZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042310Z - 050045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS FROM NRN STARR COUNTY INTO SRN BROOKS COUNTY
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND ALSO
IMPACT HIDALGO COUNTY. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AMIDST 1.5-1.75-INCH PW VALUES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME UPTICK IN
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CNTRL/SERN
DUVAL COUNTY TO NERN BROOKS COUNTIES INTERACTS WITH THE CONVECTION.
DESPITE MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OWING TO STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...THE FLOW WITHIN
THE 0-6-KM LAYER IS AOB 25 KT PER BROWNSVILLE VWP DATA...WHICH WILL
LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ANY SVR THREAT.
REGARDLESS...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS BEFORE NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION INCREASES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 11/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON 27139808 26639782 26289793 26129817 26139862 26369901
26669927 27049925 27189868 27139808

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KCHS [042302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042302
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
602 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W WALTERBORO 32.90N 80.74W
11/04/2012 COLLETON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTH CAROLINA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
CYPRESS POND ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200804

$$

BDC

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KCAE [042248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 042248
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
546 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL 1 SW SOUTH CONGAREE 33.90N 81.15W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC



&&

$$

HC

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KCAE [042224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 042224
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL MONETTA 33.85N 81.61W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH SALUDA SC PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTING 20 TO 30 SECONDS
WAS REPORTED OVER THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 23
AND HWY 39 IN MONETTA.

&&

$$

WLR

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KCHS [042212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042212
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
512 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE LAKE WARREN STATE 32.80N 81.16W
11/04/2012 HAMPTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTH CAROLINA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT
US 601 S AND CLIFTON DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200803

$$

JAQ

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KILM [042212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042212
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
512 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL 2 N FORESTBROOK 33.75N 78.96W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200378

$$

BJR

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KILM [042206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042206
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
506 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0459 PM HAIL 5 NE FORESTBROOK 33.77N 78.91W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200377

$$

BJR

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KILM [042203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042203
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
503 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL 3 SE RED HILL 33.76N 78.98W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200376

$$

BJR

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KCHS [042201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042201
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
501 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 2 SSE SUMMERVILLE 32.99N 80.15W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON BLACK RIVER
DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200802

$$

BDC

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KILM [042157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 042157
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
456 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 5 WSW CONWAY 33.80N 79.14W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200375

$$

BJR

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KBIS [042134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 042134
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM SNOW 2 SSE BISMARCK 46.78N 100.76W
11/04/2012 M1.0 INCH BURLEIGH ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AFTERNOON SNOWFALL AT BISMARCK NWS.


&&

$$

RK

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KCHS [042127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042127
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE CANADYS 33.03N 80.59W
11/04/2012 COLLETON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTH CAROLINA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
ROUND O ROAD...SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 61.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200801

$$

BDC

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KCAE [042029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 042029
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
328 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM HAIL 6 WSW SWANSEA 33.69N 81.20W
11/04/2012 E0.75 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

HC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041955
SWODY1
SPC AC 041953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND
SC...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...SEE MCD 2099.

..BROYLES.. 11/04/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012/

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EAST TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE LA/SRN MS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST INTO AL/GA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST GA/WEST SC BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD/OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. THIS REGION WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2099

ACUS11 KWNS 041934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041934
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN GA...CENTRAL/SRN FL
PANHANDLE...ERN/SRN SC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041934Z - 042200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AS PEAK PERIOD OF
DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED
WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER LIFT. A FEW STG-SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOWS OVER OUTER
BANKS AND WRN/UPSTATE SC...CONNECTED BY WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SC AND SERN NC. FARTHER W...FRONTAL ZONE
IS EVIDENT IN TWO SEGMENTS...NRN ONE HAVING STRONGER BAROCLINICITY
BUT SRN ONE BEING MOST INFLUENTIAL ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SRN
FRONTAL SEGMENT WAS DRAWN FROM CENTRAL SC SWWD OVER SWRN
GA...EXTREME SERN AL AND WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE. CAROLINAS FRONT
AND LEADING GA/AL/FL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. VIS SATELLITE ANIMATIONS DEPICT
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER WARM SECTOR -- PRIMARILY
CORRESPONDING TO SERIES OF NARROW/PARALLEL CORRIDORS WHERE
HORIZONTAL BOUNDARY-LAYER ROLLS INITIATE TOWERS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE
MLCINH. VEERED PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MASS
CONVERGENCE...SO TSTM GROWTH/EXPANSION SHOULD REMAIN GRADUAL.
DEEPEST DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN WHERE SRN FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES
ON THOSE ROLLS OVER ERN/SRN GA...ROUGHLY FROM ABY AREA TO EMANUEL
COUNTY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME ENEWD AND SWWD
EXTENSION OF DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS IN PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE TO ITS E.

PRIMARY TSTM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH CLUSTERED TO
QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES...THOUGH BRIEF/WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXISTING 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER REGION MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APCHS FROM CENTRAL GULF
COAST/MS DELTA REGION. PRECONVECTIVE/WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE SHOULD
INCREASE INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. MAIN FACTORS LIMITING GREATER
CAPE ARE LACK OF ROBUST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC MIXING/DRYING
THAT HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F RANGE IN
IMMEDIATE PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT PROCESS ALSO HAS INCREASED DCAPE AND YIELDED SUBCLOUD
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE SUITABLE TO MAINTAIN STG-SVR
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 11/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 33807864 33537898 33137921 31958088 30968145 30558315
29578498 29698518 30438572 31678373 32668233 33408158
33968050 33807864

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041721
SWODY2
SPC AC 041720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX AND SW
LA...

A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS KEEP SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AND DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM AROUND HOUSTON EWD TO LAKE CHARLES LA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
EXHIBIT ROTATION. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS...IT
APPEARS THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX AND SW LA.

..BROYLES.. 11/04/2012

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KHGX [041648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 041648
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TSTM WND DMG LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO HOMES. CAR MOVED FROM FRONT OF STREET INTO
FRONT YARD OF HOME.


&&

$$

BHAINES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041606
SWODY1
SPC AC 041603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EAST TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE LA/SRN MS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST INTO AL/GA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST GA/WEST SC BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD/OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. THIS REGION WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

..HART/BOTHWELL.. 11/04/2012

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KIND [041316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIND 041316
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM SLEET PURDUE UNIVERSITY 40.43N 86.91W
11/03/2012 U0.0 INCH TIPPECANOE IN ASOS

ICE PELLETS REPORTED AT PURDUE UNIVERSITY AIRPORT.

1030 AM SLEET BATTLE GROUND 40.51N 86.84W
11/03/2012 U0.0 INCH TIPPECANOE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SLEET OR GRAUPEL FALLING IN NORTHEAST TIPPECANOE
COUNTY.

1110 AM SLEET BROOKLYN 39.54N 86.37W
11/03/2012 U0.0 INCH MORGAN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL SLEET OR GRAUPEL FALLING.

1110 AM SLEET NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W
11/03/2012 U0.0 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL SLEET OR GRAUPEL FELL OCCASIONALLY FROM 11 TO
1110 AM.

1115 AM SLEET 1 S INDIANAPOLIS INT'L 39.71N 86.29W
11/03/2012 E0.0 INCH MARION IN NWS OFFICE

VERY SMALL SLEET OR GRAUPEL FALLING AT NWS OFFICE.

1141 AM SLEET 2 S CASTLETON 39.88N 86.05W
11/03/2012 U0.0 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER

ICE PELLETS MIXED WITH RAIN.

0150 PM HAIL 2 NW LINTON 39.06N 87.19W
11/03/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE IN PUBLIC

COVERING THE GROUND IN SPOTS.

0230 PM HAIL 12 E BLOOMFIELD 39.03N 86.71W
11/03/2012 M0.25 INCH GREENE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL HAS FALLEN FOR THE LAST FIVE MINUTES AT LOCATION
IN EASTERN GREENE COUNTY ALONG STATE ROUTE 54. HAIL IS
COLLECTING ON THE GROUND IN SPOTS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IND1200825 IND1200826 IND1200824 IND1200827 IND1200823
IND1200828 IND1200829 IND1200830

$$

NIELD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041248
SWODY1
SPC AC 041246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP EWD
TO THE NC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ESEWD
FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION. TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE NE GULF AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS BY EARLY
MONDAY. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NEWD WITH ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DIMINISHES AND ASCENT
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES/ WILL
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND/OR LOW-END SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS...WHILE THE
BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES AND ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES COULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...
A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND A
SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE/WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGHS. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS MORNING FROM THE TX COAST INTO SW LA BEFORE
CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODERATE BUOYANCY
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE EARLY STORM
INITIATION SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 11/04/2012

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KMFL [041055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 041055
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 AM DENSE FOG NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
11/04/2012 COLLIER FL ASOS

VISIBILITY AT NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN AT 1/4
MILE SINCE 4 AM. THE COLLIER COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
REPORTED DENSE FOG ALL ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY WITH
VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO TOWARDS THE IMMOKALEE AREA AS OF 5
AM.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KMFL [041050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 041050
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 AM DENSE FOG 12 NE COLLIER COUNTY RE 26.29N 80.95W
11/04/2012 HENDRY FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT AT THE SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION
REPORTED NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KEWX [040907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 040907
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM HAIL 7 NW SAN ANTONIO 29.53N 98.59W
11/04/2012 E0.25 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200497

$$

MCS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040855
SWOD48
SPC AC 040855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE OCCUR DURING THE D4-D6
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM AN ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE TO A LARGE WRN
TROUGH. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH D5...WITH MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING
ON FRI/D6 ACROSS THE PLAINS WHEN THE WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT/D7...BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER N
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH ENERGY. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FROM KS INTO IA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY
IS IN QUESTION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR.

BY SUN/D8...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED...WITH
STORMS MORE NUMEROUS ALONG IT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN
WEAKER THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A LINEAR MODE.

..JEWELL.. 11/04/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040713
SWODY3
SPC AC 040712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE WITH A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE E AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
MAX ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS N CNTRL FL...EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
A RATHER COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F. DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 11/04/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040555
SWODY1
SPC AC 040553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF
ERN/SERN GA...CENTRAL AND ERN SC...AND FAR SERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 STATES IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FORMING E OF THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS E INTO THE WRN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SEWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY...AND THEN TURN EWD REACHING THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z MON. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD CENTRAL/ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE /ATTENDANT TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/ SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
UPSTATE SC/NC AT 12Z TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH
NRN GA TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG A WARM
FRONT REACHING SERN NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
AND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES/GA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SRN SC ALONG A
LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO ERN/SERN GA
AND NEWD TO FAR SERN NC. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.

...FAR SERN NC/CENTRAL AND ERN SC/PART OF ERN/SERN GA...
ALTHOUGH DEEP WLY WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE RETURN OF
GREATER MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S F AND ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES BY PEAK
HEATING SHOULD RANGE FROM 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-35 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS GIVEN DEEP WLY WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS...WITH SPLITTING STORMS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE AND THE LEE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE IN UVVS WITHIN A COUPLED MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STRUCTURE SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z WRF-NMM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS/DYNAMICS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS
MOVE OFFSHORE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

FARTHER S INTO SRN GA...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/04/2012

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