MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2100

ACUS11 KWNS 042310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042310
TXZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042310Z - 050045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS FROM NRN STARR COUNTY INTO SRN BROOKS COUNTY
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND ALSO
IMPACT HIDALGO COUNTY. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AMIDST 1.5-1.75-INCH PW VALUES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME UPTICK IN
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CNTRL/SERN
DUVAL COUNTY TO NERN BROOKS COUNTIES INTERACTS WITH THE CONVECTION.
DESPITE MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OWING TO STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...THE FLOW WITHIN
THE 0-6-KM LAYER IS AOB 25 KT PER BROWNSVILLE VWP DATA...WHICH WILL
LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ANY SVR THREAT.
REGARDLESS...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS BEFORE NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION INCREASES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 11/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON 27139808 26639782 26289793 26129817 26139862 26369901
26669927 27049925 27189868 27139808

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