Saturday, March 10, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110057
SWODY1
SPC AC 110055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NEWD TRACK
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE FARTHER NW A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

...SRN PLAINS...
BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS TX/OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIGHTNING LIKELY
TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS TX...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...AS
THE NM UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...ELSEWHERE...
STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS S FL...WITH SHOWERS NEAR AND OFF THE E
COAST LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW STRIKES AT BEST. ELSEWHERE...A
COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES PERSIST ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 03/11/2012

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KLOT [110037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 110037
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
636 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM WILDFIRE OGDEN DUNES 41.62N 87.19W
03/10/2012 PORTER IN EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 INJ *** MAJOR WILDLAND/FOREST FIRE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF OGDEN DUNES...WITH 6 FIRE DEPARTMENTS ON THE SCENE
FIGHTING THE FIRE. FIRE STARTED IN THE AREA OF US 12 AND
COUNTY LINE ROAD. EVACUATION OF NEARBY HOMES CONDUCTED.


&&

$$

RC

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KGRR [102331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 102331
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
631 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE COMSTOCK PARK 43.06N 85.65W
03/10/2012 M41 MPH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KAPX [102156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 102156
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
456 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M54 MPH MANISTEE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

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KMKX [102138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 102138
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW CUDAHY 42.98N 87.89W
03/10/2012 M52.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI MESONET

CW1096

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MILWAUKEE 43.05N 87.88W
03/10/2012 M45.00 MPH LMZ645 WI C-MAN STATION

MLWW3

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE KENOSHA 42.59N 87.81W
03/10/2012 M40.00 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

KNSW3

0243 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BASSETT 42.54N 88.23W
03/10/2012 M45.00 MPH KENOSHA WI MESONET

DW6766


&&

$$

MEB

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KMKX [102104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 102104
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HIGH SUST WINDS JUNEAU 43.41N 88.70W
03/10/2012 M32 MPH DODGE WI AWOS


&&

$$

MEB

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KAPX [102051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 102051
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M52 MPH MANISTEE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

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KGRR [102047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 102047
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW SCOTTVILLE 43.96N 86.30W
03/10/2012 M39.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NE BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
03/10/2012 M42.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1121 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE HART 43.65N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M37.00 MPH OCEANA MI MESONET

1132 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW WEARE 43.77N 86.38W
03/10/2012 M42.00 MPH OCEANA MI MESONET

1136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
03/10/2012 M38.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MUSKEGON ARPT 43.17N 86.24W
03/10/2012 M37.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [102045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 102045
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW WEARE 43.77N 86.38W
03/10/2012 M47 MPH OCEANA MI AMATEUR RADIO

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.22W
03/10/2012 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
03/10/2012 M45 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0148 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
03/10/2012 M44 MPH MASON MI MESONET

0131 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE HART 43.65N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M44 MPH OCEANA MI AMATEUR RADIO

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW SCOTTVILLE 43.96N 86.30W
03/10/2012 M43 MPH MASON MI MESONET


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KMKX [102022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 102022
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 PM HIGH SUST WINDS MONROE AIRPORT 42.62N 89.59W
03/10/2012 M30 MPH GREEN WI AWOS


&&

$$

MEB

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KMKX [102017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 102017
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
216 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 PM HIGH SUST WINDS MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W
03/10/2012 M33 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS


&&

$$

MEB

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KMKX [102002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 102002
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
202 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHEBOYGAN AIRPORT 43.77N 87.85W
03/10/2012 M47 MPH SHEBOYGAN WI ASOS

KSBM.


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KMKX [101955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 101955
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
155 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE LAKESHORE 43.05N 87.88W
03/10/2012 M45 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

MLWW3. SUSTAINED 33 MPH.


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101935
SWODY1
SPC AC 101933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL TX...BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

..JEWELL.. 03/10/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012/

...SRN PLAINS...
EARLIER FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS LARGE SRN STREAM CLOSED
MID-UPPER LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE AZ/NM BORDER
AREAS...EJECTS NEWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ZONE OF
QG-ASCENT WITHIN ERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD DOTTED WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS TX
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND EXPAND
NWD/NEWD ACROSS OK AND INTO KS/AR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TAKING FORM LATE IN
THE PERIOD NEAR THE TX GULF COAST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FUELED BY MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER
KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE BRIEFLY OFFSET BY DYNAMIC ASCENT
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE THUS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
TSTMS.

...NM/CO...
SMALL AREA OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD CORE LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...FL...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND WEAK INHIBITION WILL LIKELY AID SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER FL AGAIN TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS MAY BE DISPLACED SOUTH FROM FRIDAY ACTIVITY AS LATEST VIS
SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND WWD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND SW OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORMS BUT A ROGUE GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

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KMKX [101901]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 101901
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
101 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 PM HIGH SUST WINDS FOND DU LAC AIRPORT 43.77N 88.49W
03/10/2012 M30 MPH FOND DU LAC WI ASOS

KFLD 21026G34KT


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KAPX [101831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 101831
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M48.00 MPH MANISTEE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

LOCKER

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KMKX [101831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 101831
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1230 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HIGH SUST WINDS SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.72W
03/10/2012 M42.00 MPH SHEBOYGAN WI C-MAN STATION

SGNW3. GUSTS TO 47 MPH.


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KGRR [101825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101825
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1234 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW FREMONT 43.44N 85.99W
03/10/2012 M35 MPH NEWAYGO MI AWOS


&&

$$

WH

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KGRR [101822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101822
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE HART 43.65N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M39 MPH OCEANA MI MESONET


&&

$$

WH

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KGRR [101821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101821
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
03/10/2012 M40 MPH MASON MI MESONET


&&

$$

WH

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KGRR [101819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101819
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NE BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
03/10/2012 M43 MPH MASON MI MESONET


&&

$$

WH

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KFWD [101742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 101742
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM HAIL STEPHENVILLE 32.23N 98.20W
03/10/2012 E1.00 INCH ERATH TX PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL MIXED WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
STEPHENVILLE

$$

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KGRR [101728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101728
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1227 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW SCOTTVILLE 43.96N 86.30W
03/10/2012 M39.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NE BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
03/10/2012 M42.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1121 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE HART 43.65N 86.33W
03/10/2012 M37.00 MPH OCEANA MI MESONET

1132 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW WEARE 43.77N 86.38W
03/10/2012 M42.00 MPH OCEANA MI MESONET

1136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
03/10/2012 M38.00 MPH MASON MI MESONET

1142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MUSKEGON ARPT 43.17N 86.24W
03/10/2012 M37.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS


&&

$$

WH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS AR AND MO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL FALL BUT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP. NEITHER WILL THERE BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT SUBTLE CONFLUENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. BROAD SWLY 850 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT
WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S INTO CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON.

...ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH
OF ERN TX...OK...KS...SWRN MO AND WRN AR SUN MORNING AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NWD IN THE WARM CONVEYOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP NEWD...THE WRN EDGE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHARPEN AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INCREASING INTENSITY WITH TIME....BEGINNING
OVER FAR ERN OK AND NERN TX.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER AR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
EXCEEDING 50 KT BY 00Z. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND SMOOTH IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. MAIN
MITIGATING FACTORS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT ARE SUBTLE WARM
SECTOR FORCING...ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LEVELS
OF INSTABILITY...AT LEAST FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

WITH NO CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS BY
AFTERNOON...SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.

SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...HAVE ADDED A SMALL 30 PERCENT AREA
ACROSS CNTRL AR. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 03/10/2012

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KJAN [101713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time

NWUS54 KJAN 101713 CCA
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MERIDIAN 32.38N 88.71W
03/08/2012 LAUDERDALE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

CITY OF MERIDIAN EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS
COINCIDING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
EARLIER FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS LARGE SRN STREAM CLOSED
MID-UPPER LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE AZ/NM BORDER
AREAS...EJECTS NEWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ZONE OF
QG-ASCENT WITHIN ERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD DOTTED WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS TX
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND EXPAND
NWD/NEWD ACROSS OK AND INTO KS/AR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TAKING FORM LATE IN
THE PERIOD NEAR THE TX GULF COAST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FUELED BY MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER
KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE BRIEFLY OFFSET BY DYNAMIC ASCENT
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE THUS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
TSTMS.

...NM/CO...
SMALL AREA OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD CORE LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...FL...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND WEAK INHIBITION WILL LIKELY AID SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER FL AGAIN TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS MAY BE DISPLACED SOUTH FROM FRIDAY ACTIVITY AS LATEST VIS
SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND WWD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND SW OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORMS BUT A ROGUE GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 03/10/2012

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KEWX [101434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 101434
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM HAIL BANDERA 29.72N 99.07W
03/09/2012 E0.25 INCH BANDERA TX COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200105

$$

SBS

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