SWODY1
SPC AC 101630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
EARLIER FORECASTS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS LARGE SRN STREAM CLOSED
MID-UPPER LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE AZ/NM BORDER
AREAS...EJECTS NEWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ZONE OF
QG-ASCENT WITHIN ERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD DOTTED WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS TX
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND EXPAND
NWD/NEWD ACROSS OK AND INTO KS/AR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TAKING FORM LATE IN
THE PERIOD NEAR THE TX GULF COAST...MOST STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FUELED BY MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER
KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE BRIEFLY OFFSET BY DYNAMIC ASCENT
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE THUS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
TSTMS.
...NM/CO...
SMALL AREA OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD CORE LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO THROUGH
TONIGHT.
...FL...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND WEAK INHIBITION WILL LIKELY AID SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER FL AGAIN TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS MAY BE DISPLACED SOUTH FROM FRIDAY ACTIVITY AS LATEST VIS
SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND WWD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND SW OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORMS BUT A ROGUE GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 03/10/2012
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