Wednesday, May 18, 2011

KAKQ [182049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KAKQ 182049
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
449 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL COLLEGE PARK 36.80N 76.21W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0406 PM HAIL CHESAPEAKE 36.82N 76.27W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0408 PM HAIL BAYBERRY PLACE 36.78N 76.22W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM HAIL COLLEGE PARK 36.80N 76.22W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA PUBLIC

0411 PM HAIL KNOB HILL 36.81N 76.21W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA PUBLIC

0411 PM HAIL TANGLEWOOD 36.83N 76.23W
05/18/2011 M1.25 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100094 AKQ1100095 AKQ1100096 AKQ1100097 AKQ1100098
AKQ1100099

$$

DAP

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KAKQ [182047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 182047
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
447 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NNE BAYSIDE 36.97N 76.11W
05/18/2011 M51.00 MPH ANZ634 VA MESONET

FIRST ISLAND - CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL

0428 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E HAMPTON 37.05N 76.26W
05/18/2011 M46.00 MPH ANZ632 VA MESONET

THIMBLE SHOALS


&&

$$

JM

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KLWX [182045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182045
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
445 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TORNADO 1 S MAUGANSVILLE 39.68N 77.75W
05/17/2011 WASHINGTON MD NWS STORM SURVEY

2.1 MILE EF-1 TORNADO TRACK ASSESSED NEAR MAUGANSVILLE.
WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE PATH.
SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE WERE COMMON. ISOLATED
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALSO NOTED. TORNADO CONTINUED UNTIL
JUST AFTER 815 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100669

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [182042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182042
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TORNADO 1 NNE WOLFSVILLE 39.59N 77.54W
05/17/2011 FREDERICK MD NWS STORM SURVEY

1.1 MILE EF-0 TORNADO TRACK ASSESSED NEAR WOLFSVILLE.
DAMAGE WAS PRIMARILY TO TREES...WITH SIDING DAMAGE NOTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE PATH. TORNADO ENDED AT 539 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100668

$$

KRAMAR

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KUNR [182037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 182037
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH 44.50N 104.02W
05/18/2011 M0.64 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0.64 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES/1130AM-1150AM


&&

$$

MS

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KAKQ [182035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 182035
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM TSTM WND GST NORFOLK INTERNATIONAL A 36.90N 76.20W
05/18/2011 M56 MPH CITY OF NORFOLK VA ASOS


&&

$$

JM

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KAKQ [182022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 182022
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 4 E DOWNTOWN NORFOLK 36.85N 76.21W
05/18/2011 M1.00 INCH CITY OF NORFOLK VA TRAINED SPOTTER

MILITARY HIGHWAY AND I-264


&&

$$

JM

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KLWX [182007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182007
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 4 ESE WOLFE MILL 39.64N 78.66W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH ALLEGANY MD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100667

$$

JACKSON

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KLWX [182007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182007
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 1 WNW ECKHART MINES 39.66N 78.91W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH ALLEGANY MD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100666

$$

SMZ

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KRLX [182007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 182007
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
407 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM HAIL CAMDEN ON GAULEY 38.37N 80.60W
05/18/2011 E0.25 INCH WEBSTER WV POST OFFICE


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100633

$$

JFD

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KLWX [182005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182005
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL FROSTBURG 39.66N 78.93W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH ALLEGANY MD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100665

$$

HAS

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KLWX [182004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 182004
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
404 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 2 NNW FROSTBURG 39.68N 78.94W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH ALLEGANY MD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100664

$$

HAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181958
SWODY1
SPC AC 181956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
AT 19Z..SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO N CENTRAL OK AND THEN
SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...SUNNY SKIES AND
CONSEQUENT STRONGLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MIXING HAD RESULTED IN
THE DRYLINE TO PROGRESS EWD FROM NEAR CUSTER CO...OK SWD TO NEAR
ABI. THE WELL MIXED AIR MASS HAD RESULTED IN CU TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY AND GIVEN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATED JUST EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOON. HOWEVER...PROFILERS
IN THE AREA SHOW WINDS ARE BACKING AND SIGNIFIES THAT THE DRYLINE
MAY NOT MOVE FURTHER EWD. ALSO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
ENCOUNTER A MORE CLOUDY AND LIKELY MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN
A FEW TORNADOES.

WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM ERN NM
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF A HIGH LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM FAR SERN CO SEWD INTO
NWRN OK. THIS STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD KS TONIGHT
AND RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. ELEVATED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION AND THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL...SO THE
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF KS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NNWWD ACROSS NRN WV HAD AIDED IN STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION...REFERENCE MCD 0803. THE SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD INTO NRN OH WHERE EARLIER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THE SLIGHT RISK
WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO MORE OF PA AND NJ WHERE BAND OF CONVECTION
WAS MOVING ONSHORE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION
AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

...NERN CO...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN NERN CO NEAR DEN.
DESPITE COOL AIR MASS...MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND STRONGLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL. THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY EAST
OF THE DEN-FCL CORRIDOR...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..IMY.. 05/18/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2011/

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAKS DIGGING SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL ROUND LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BASE TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 19/12Z.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER W-CNTRL OK AS OF MID MORNING WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH
TIME AS PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM INTERSECTION WITH
WARM FRONT OVER NWRN OK SEWD TO JUST W OF THE OKC AREA AND THEN SWWD
INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.
LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING W OF DRYLINE AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED LEAD
IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
GIVEN FORECAST VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2...SETUP WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A
COUPLE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG BENT-BACK SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OK
INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HERE TOO...KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY PROGRESSING NWWD
FROM VA/WV INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. SUPPLEMENTAL 14Z IAD SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR A
SURFACE-BASED PARCEL /I.E. SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/. SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY...DEEPER PBL MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD OFFSET THIS TO SOME DEGREE...MAINTAINING SIMILAR
SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NNELY SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SMALL SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES/WIND SHIFTS
MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 801.

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KBOU [181951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 181951
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
151 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 PM HAIL THORNTON 39.89N 104.96W
05/18/2011 M0.75 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF ONE AND HALF INCHES


0140 PM HAIL NORTHGLENN 39.91N 104.98W
05/18/2011 M0.25 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL TO A DEPTH OF THREE INCHES COVERED THE GROUND IN THE
NORTHGLENN THORNTON AREA 104TH ST AND THORNTON PARKWAY

0122 PM HAIL 2 S THORNTON 39.86N 104.96W
05/18/2011 M1.75 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KPBZ [181951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 181951
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FLOOD CLAYSVILLE 40.12N 80.41W
05/18/2011 WASHINGTON PA EMERGENCY MNGR

US ROUTE 40 CLOSED IN DONEGAL TOWNSHIP DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100753

$$

XX

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0804

ACUS11 KWNS 181944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181944
OKZ000-TXZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...PORTIONS OF N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181944Z - 182045Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX...ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS WRN OK HAS RESULTED IN AN EWD
ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC DRYLINE...POSITIONED FROM 40 SSW SPS TO FSI TO
40 NE CSM /PER 19Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. THIS FEATURE IS ATTENDANT
TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
PROTRUDING ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN OK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED WINDS IN THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT HAVE BACKED TOWARDS
THE S /LIMITING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY AN
AREA OF IMPLIED ASCENT THAT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EWD OUT OF THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF CIRRUS HAS DEVELOPED IN
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR IMAGES. AS THIS APPROACHES WRN
OK AND NW TX...WEAKENING CINH AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE /LOWER-MID 60S SFC
DEW POINTS/ ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG
C PER KM HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR RESULTING FROM BACKED FLOW /PARTICULARLY WITH
NWD EXTENT/...ALONG WITH A FAVORED DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTOR
RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IF
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CNTRL OK HAS LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY PRIMARILY E OF I-35...WITH
SOME QUESTION REGARDING MAINTENANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OFF
THE DRYLINE.

..ROGERS.. 05/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36619876 36569810 36199732 34859686 33919697 33599725
33679820 33849867 34339871 34969856 35659892 36239896
36489880 36619876

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KPBZ [181944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181944
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FLOOD CLAYSVILLE 39.94N 81.67W
05/18/2011 GUERNSEY OH EMERGENCY MNGR

US ROUTE 40 CLOSED IN DONEGAL TOWNSHIP DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100753

$$

XX

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KRLX [181931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181931
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
331 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NW SUMMERSVILLE 38.34N 80.91W
05/18/2011 NICHOLAS WV 911 CALL CENTER

WATER OVER ROADS IN GILBOA FROM BLOCKED CULVERTS


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100632

$$

NW

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KBOU [181926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 181926
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
126 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM HAIL 2 S THORNTON 39.86N 104.96W
05/18/2011 M1.75 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KRLX [181914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181914
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL MOUNT NEBO 38.19N 80.81W
05/18/2011 U0.50 INCH NICHOLAS WV PUBLIC

&&

$$

NNNN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0803

ACUS11 KWNS 181908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181908
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC STATES NWWD THROUGH UPPER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...

VALID 181908Z - 182015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305
CONTINUES.

DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE EXPANDED WNWWD INTO NRN OH AND ALSO
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ. FOR ERN PA/NJ SHORT TERM SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...REFER TO SPC MCD 802.

...NRN OH AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
AT 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AREAS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
NRN VA...ERN WV NWWD THROUGH WRN PA AND ERN/NERN OH. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
/MUCAPE 500-1200 J PER KG/...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NNWWD ACROSS WV AT THIS TIME IS
LIKELY COMPENSATING AND AIDING IN STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THIS MID-UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WRN PA AND OH...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR GREATER SURFACE HEATING
INVOF A NWWD EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH.

...SRN AND ERN PARTS OF WW 305...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NNWWD
TOWARD THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT 50 KT
SSELY MIDLEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACROSS THE SRN/ERN PARTS
OF WW 305. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT WILL
MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...
RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 41358337 41478273 41678095 40947883 40907868 40757726
41537652 41837598 41697526 40917407 40167402 39447432
39307465 38177511 37067586 37627797 37637895 38058035
38648039 39598126 40298138 40848342 41358337

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KPBZ [181855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181855
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL FOLLANSBEE 40.34N 80.58W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH BROOKE WV PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100751

$$

RSMITH

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KRLX [181851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181851
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
251 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 2 N SUMMERSVILLE 38.31N 80.84W
05/18/2011 E0.25 INCH NICHOLAS WV 911 CALL CENTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100631

$$

JSH

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KHNX [181845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 181845
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1145 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 36.50N 118.44W
05/17/2011 E5.1 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL AT ELEVATION 10,300 FEET.

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW OSTRANDER LAKE 37.64N 119.55W
05/18/2011 E6.7 INCH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

SNOTEL AT ELEVATION 8,200 FEET.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW TENAYA LAKE 37.84N 119.45W
05/18/2011 E10.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

SNOTEL AT ELEVATION 8,150 FEET.


&&

$$

BSO

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KPBZ [181843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181843
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM HAIL 1 S STEUBENVILLE 40.35N 80.65W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH JEFFERSON OH TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100750

$$

RSMITH

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KPBZ [181842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 181842
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM HAIL 2 W CARMICHAELS 39.90N 80.01W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH GREENE PA PUBLIC

CORRECTED TIME


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100749

$$

RSMITH

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KPHI [181840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 181840
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA 40.09N 75.02W
05/18/2011 PHILADELPHIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL BUILDINGS DAMAGED IN NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100133

$$

MEOLA

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KPBZ [181839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181839
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
239 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM HAIL 2 W CARMICHAELS 39.90N 80.01W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH GREENE PA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100749

$$

RSMITH

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KRLX [181836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181836
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
236 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM HAIL 2 SW WEBSTER SPRINGS 38.46N 80.44W
05/18/2011 E0.88 INCH WEBSTER WV EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100630

$$

JSH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802

ACUS11 KWNS 181834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181834
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA AND CENTRAL/NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181834Z - 181930Z

WW IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND CENTRAL/NRN
NJ. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER IF INSTABILITY INCREASES BEYOND
THE CURRENT MARGINAL VALUES AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS.

SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE EXTENDING
INLAND FROM THE NJ COAST INTO ERN PA...WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF NJ INTO EAST CENTRAL/SERN PA AND NEAR 60 IN NERN PA.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA...MUCAPE IS
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS...AND THUS POSE A SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTM COVERAGE THAT WOULD WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME ROTATION. TRENDS IN LOW LEVEL FLOW PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME BACKING TO SELY. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. STRONGER ESELY
MIDLEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SHIFTS NWD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SERN PA THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS INDICATING PERIODIC LOW LEVEL
ROTATIONAL COUPLETS.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 39697423 39987539 40347657 40807703 41587662 41697574
41317473 40887420 40457406 39827398 39697423

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KPBZ [181833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181833
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
232 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM HAIL MINGO JUNCTION 40.31N 80.65W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OH PUBLIC


&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100748

$$

RSMITH

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KRLX [181820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181820
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
220 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM HAIL WEBSTER SPRINGS 38.48N 80.41W
05/18/2011 E0.70 INCH WEBSTER WV PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100629

$$

JSH

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KRLX [181818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181818
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
217 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM HAIL GRAFTON 39.36N 79.99W
05/18/2011 U0.75 INCH TAYLOR WV PUBLIC

&&

$$

NNNN

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KMKX [181809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 181809
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
109 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM TORNADO 3 SSE BERLIN 43.93N 88.93W
04/10/2011 GREEN LAKE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED ASSESSMENT. EF0 TORNADO PER SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGERY. LASTED ABOUT 2
MINUTES. INITIAL POSITION IN OPEN FARM AREA. TORNADO
MOVED NORTHEAST AND ENDED ON MEADOWBROOK ROAD IN GREEN
LAKE COUNTY WHERE IT BROKE SOME TREE BRANCHES AND LIGHTLY
DAMAGED LAWN FURNITURE AND A WOODEN STRUCTURE.


&&

$$

JWOOD

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KRLX [181800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181800
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
200 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 PM HAIL HELVETIA 38.70N 80.20W
05/18/2011 E0.50 INCH RANDOLPH WV PUBLIC

REPORTED BY LOCAL RESTAURANT EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100628

$$

JSH

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KRLX [181755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181755
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
155 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 PM HAIL PICKENS 38.65N 80.22W
05/18/2011 E0.50 INCH RANDOLPH WV POST OFFICE


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100627

$$

NW

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KRLX [181753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181753
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
153 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL 3 WSW GRAFTON 39.32N 80.07W
05/18/2011 E0.70 INCH TAYLOR WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100626

$$

NW

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KPBZ [181752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181752
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0151 PM HAIL GREENSBURG 40.30N 79.54W
05/18/2011 E0.88 INCH WESTMORELAND PA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100747

$$

RSMITH

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KPBZ [181751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181751
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL RIVESVILLE 39.53N 80.12W
05/18/2011 E0.88 INCH MARION WV PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100746

$$

RSMITH

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KPBZ [181750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181750
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL FAIRMONT 39.48N 80.14W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH MARION WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100745

$$

RSMITH

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KRLX [181742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181742
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
142 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM HAIL TYGART LAKE STATE PARK 39.30N 80.03W
05/18/2011 E0.70 INCH TAYLOR WV PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100625

$$

JSH

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KPBZ [181737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181737
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM HAIL FAIRMONT 39.48N 80.14W
05/18/2011 E0.88 INCH MARION WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100744

$$

RSMITH

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KPBZ [181735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181735
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
135 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM HAIL FAIRMONT 39.48N 80.14W
05/18/2011 E0.75 INCH MARION WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100743

$$

RSMITH

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KRLX [181735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 181735
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
134 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM HAIL MONTROSE 39.07N 79.81W
05/18/2011 E1.00 INCH RANDOLPH WV EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100624

$$

NW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A 70-80 KT JET MAX EJECTING NWD
ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM NERN NM INTO SD. THIS RESULTS
IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW
MOVES FROM WRN CO INTO ERN WY...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD FROM SRN CA INTO NRN NM...AMPLIFYING THE SRN BASE
OF PARENT TROUGH.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM UPPER JET MAX AND
CONSEQUENT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB. WHILE THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MORNING...THEY
SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WEAKEN.

THEREAFTER...SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
OK...IS FORECAST TO STRETCH E-W NEAR I-70 IN KS BY LATE THU
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE LOW MIGRATES NWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WRN KS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS WRN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX...AND EXTEND NWD
TO THE WARM FRONT IN WRN KS. THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SINCE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICAL
LIFTING WILL BE WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 50 KT...SO THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEAR AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE
SHOULD AID IN SURFACE PARCELS REACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AFTER
21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ALSO...JUST EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN KS...THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30
KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. SINCE STORMS WILL BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND MID
EVENING.

DRYLINE WILL MOVE WWD OVERNIGHT. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS IN
FROM THE WEST...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR SPS TO SJT. THE UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ELEVATED...THOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE.

...MID ATLANTIC...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE SHUNTED EWD FROM THE FAR ERN OH VALLEY
INTO NJ BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
INITIATE STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AROUND 500 J/KG...THOUGH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND 30-40 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON
THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK...ONCE AREAS WHERE GREATER HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN
BE IDENTIFIED.

..IMY.. 05/18/2011

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KVEF [181712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 181712
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1012 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM HAIL PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MO 36.87N 112.73W
05/18/2011 E0.50 INCH MOHAVE AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT 1005 AM AT PIPE SPRING
MONUMENT.


&&

$$

JGG

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WATCHES: Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested

WWUS20 KWNS 181659
SEL5
SPC WW 181659
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-19010
0-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST OHIO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALLOPS
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING
NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. OBSERVATION AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC DATA
INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF
40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDANT TO VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SETUP
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY...HOWEVER A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT
WITH ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAN BECOME
MORE DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 15530.


...MEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181632
SWODY1
SPC AC 181631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAKS DIGGING SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL ROUND LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BASE TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 19/12Z.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER W-CNTRL OK AS OF MID MORNING WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH
TIME AS PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM INTERSECTION WITH
WARM FRONT OVER NWRN OK SEWD TO JUST W OF THE OKC AREA AND THEN SWWD
INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.
LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING W OF DRYLINE AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED LEAD
IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
GIVEN FORECAST VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2...SETUP WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A
COUPLE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG BENT-BACK SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OK
INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HERE TOO...KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY PROGRESSING NWWD
FROM VA/WV INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. SUPPLEMENTAL 14Z IAD SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR A
SURFACE-BASED PARCEL /I.E. SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/. SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY...DEEPER PBL MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD OFFSET THIS TO SOME DEGREE...MAINTAINING SIMILAR
SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NNELY SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SMALL SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES/WIND SHIFTS
MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 801.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 05/18/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0801

ACUS11 KWNS 181556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181555
VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN VA...CENTRAL AND WRN
MD...ERN AND NRN WV...SRN AND SWRN PA...AND SERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181555Z - 181700Z

A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SERN OH/SWRN PA TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY/TIDEWATER AREA.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND A GREATER
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL THAN YESTERDAY...A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED
TO PARTS OF THIS AREA IN THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN VA...CENTRAL AND WRN MD INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDEWATER AREA...SRN AND SWRN PA...ERN AND NRN WV
AND SERN OH. DESPITE SOME CLOUDINESS...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 F AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7 C/KM IS ALREADY
RESULTING IN MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
TODAY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING NNWWD ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NWD FROM SRN VA WILL AID IN FURTHER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. GIVEN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-45 KT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORM MODES BEING BOTH MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN ENHANCED AREA OF AMBIENT
SURFACE VORTICITY OVER NRN VA/ERN WV PANHANDLE TO SWRN PA/SERN OH
WITH 0-3 KM CAPE UP TO 100-125 J/KG. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT...THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
HAIL.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37387587 37037850 38167976 39108069 40498128 40808051
40597846 39777696 39037648 37387587

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KJAX [181519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181519
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1119 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM WILDFIRE 7 SSW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.72N 82.37W
05/18/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE HAS BURNED 137,959 ACRES AND
WAS 45 PERCENT CONTAINED. STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK IS
CLOSED. SWAMP ISLAND DRIVE IS CLOSED.


&&

$$

CARROLL

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