NWUS52 KJAX 210252
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1052 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM TSTM WND GST GAINESVILLE 29.67N 82.34W
09/20/2012 M41 MPH ALACHUA FL ASOS
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM AT THE GAINESVILLE
REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A NORTHERLY WIND GUST OF 41 MPH
AS A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
KAPX [210149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 210149
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM HAIL 2 S KINGSLEY 44.56N 85.54W
09/20/2012 M0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM HAIL 2 S KINGSLEY 44.56N 85.54W
09/20/2012 M0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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KAPX [210123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 210123
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
923 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 PM HAIL 4 S INTERLOCHEN 44.59N 85.75W
09/20/2012 M0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
923 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 PM HAIL 4 S INTERLOCHEN 44.59N 85.75W
09/20/2012 M0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 210044
SWODY1
SPC AC 210042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR...
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR INTO SRN
MO ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THIS EVENING. SAMPLING SITES
AT AMA/OUN/SGF ARE AOB .75 INCH PW...ALTHOUGH FWD/LZK ARE AOA ONE
INCH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT RESIDES ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR AND THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIFTED ATOP THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT WHERE
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT HAIL MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS IF ROBUST TSTMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
...FL...
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 210042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR...
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR INTO SRN
MO ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THIS EVENING. SAMPLING SITES
AT AMA/OUN/SGF ARE AOB .75 INCH PW...ALTHOUGH FWD/LZK ARE AOA ONE
INCH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT RESIDES ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR AND THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIFTED ATOP THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT WHERE
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT HAIL MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS IF ROBUST TSTMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
...FL...
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 09/21/2012
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KDLH [210000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 210000
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0352 PM HAIL 3 SE PHILLIPS 45.66N 90.35W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
COVERED THE ROADWAY FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES
&&
$$
MELDE
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0352 PM HAIL 3 SE PHILLIPS 45.66N 90.35W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
COVERED THE ROADWAY FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES
&&
$$
MELDE
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KAPX [202337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 202337
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
737 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM WATER SPOUT EMPIRE 44.81N 86.06W
09/20/2012 LEELANAU MI PUBLIC
PICTURE TAKEN AT SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NATIONAL LAKESHORE
&&
$$
MRUNYAN
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
737 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM WATER SPOUT EMPIRE 44.81N 86.06W
09/20/2012 LEELANAU MI PUBLIC
PICTURE TAKEN AT SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NATIONAL LAKESHORE
&&
$$
MRUNYAN
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KTAE [202257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KTAE 202257
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
656 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N VALDOSTA 30.87N 83.28W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON HOUSES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
656 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N VALDOSTA 30.87N 83.28W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON HOUSES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTAE [202253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 202253
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
653 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N VALDOSTA 30.87N 83.28W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON HOUSES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
653 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N VALDOSTA 30.87N 83.28W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON HOUSES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTAE [202249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KTAE 202249
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.TWO 90 FT
PINES DOWN, ONE SNAPPED, ONE UPROOTED.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.TWO 90 FT
PINES DOWN, ONE SNAPPED, ONE UPROOTED.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTBW [202152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 202152
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
552 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM HAIL 2 SSE FORT MYERS 26.61N 81.84W
09/20/2012 E0.70 INCH LEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER
SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL AND ESTIMATED
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR. NO
WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED.
&&
$$
FLEMING
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
552 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM HAIL 2 SSE FORT MYERS 26.61N 81.84W
09/20/2012 E0.70 INCH LEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER
SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL AND ESTIMATED
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR. NO
WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED.
&&
$$
FLEMING
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KTBW [202151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 202151
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
551 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0457 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE ESTERO 26.53N 81.76W
09/20/2012 M34 MPH LEE FL ASOS
ASOS AT RSW MEASURED A 39 KNOT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.
0534 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW CAPE CORAL 26.55N 82.01W
09/20/2012 M39 MPH LEE FL MESONET
THE MARINA AT CAPE HARBOUR MEASURED A 34 KNOT
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.
&&
$$
FLEMING
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
551 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0457 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE ESTERO 26.53N 81.76W
09/20/2012 M34 MPH LEE FL ASOS
ASOS AT RSW MEASURED A 39 KNOT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.
0534 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW CAPE CORAL 26.55N 82.01W
09/20/2012 M39 MPH LEE FL MESONET
THE MARINA AT CAPE HARBOUR MEASURED A 34 KNOT
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.
&&
$$
FLEMING
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KMFL [202101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMFL 202101
LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM HAIL 2 NNW NORTH NAPLES 26.24N 81.77W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH COLLIER FL PUBLIC
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD AND AIRPORT PULLING ROAD.
&&
$$
GREGORIA
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LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM HAIL 2 NNW NORTH NAPLES 26.24N 81.77W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH COLLIER FL PUBLIC
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD AND AIRPORT PULLING ROAD.
&&
$$
GREGORIA
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KAKQ [202058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS51 KAKQ 202058
LSRAKQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
458 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW KILMARNOCK 37.73N 76.42W
09/18/2012 LANCASTER VA EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN.
0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S ANTIOCH 37.81N 78.42W
09/18/2012 FLUVANNA VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
0156 PM TSTM WND DMG PALMYRA 37.86N 78.26W
09/18/2012 FLUVANNA VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF HOUSE ON FOX HOLLOW
LANE...MINOR TREE DAMAGE. WINDS ESTIMATED 70-75 MPH.
0326 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBERTA 36.86N 77.88W
09/18/2012 BRUNSWICK VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF FLAT ROCK RD AND LITTLE
MONT RD
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODLAWN 38.45N 75.56W
09/18/2012 WICOMICO MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES ALONG ROUTE 13 NEAR THE
DELAWARE STATE LINE
0714 PM TSTM WND DMG SNOW HILL 38.17N 75.39W
09/18/2012 WORCESTER MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN ON ST. LUKES ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200749 AKQ1200744 AKQ1200745 AKQ1200746 AKQ1200747
AKQ1200748
$$
WRS
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LSRAKQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
458 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW KILMARNOCK 37.73N 76.42W
09/18/2012 LANCASTER VA EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN.
0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S ANTIOCH 37.81N 78.42W
09/18/2012 FLUVANNA VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
0156 PM TSTM WND DMG PALMYRA 37.86N 78.26W
09/18/2012 FLUVANNA VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF HOUSE ON FOX HOLLOW
LANE...MINOR TREE DAMAGE. WINDS ESTIMATED 70-75 MPH.
0326 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBERTA 36.86N 77.88W
09/18/2012 BRUNSWICK VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF FLAT ROCK RD AND LITTLE
MONT RD
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODLAWN 38.45N 75.56W
09/18/2012 WICOMICO MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES ALONG ROUTE 13 NEAR THE
DELAWARE STATE LINE
0714 PM TSTM WND DMG SNOW HILL 38.17N 75.39W
09/18/2012 WORCESTER MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN ON ST. LUKES ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200749 AKQ1200744 AKQ1200745 AKQ1200746 AKQ1200747
AKQ1200748
$$
WRS
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KTAE [202053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KTAE 202053
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTAE [202052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KTAE 202052
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW VALDOSTA 30.84N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AND CAR ACCIDENTS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW VALDOSTA 30.84N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AND CAR ACCIDENTS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTAE [202041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 202041
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0429 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW VALDOSTA 30.84N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AND CAR ACCIDENTS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0429 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW VALDOSTA 30.84N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN AND CAR ACCIDENTS.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KTAE [202040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 202040
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0429 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE VALDOSTA 30.89N 83.23W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0429 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE VALDOSTA 30.89N 83.23W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KMLB [202034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMLB 202034
LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
433 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM WATER SPOUT 8 NE ORMOND BEACH 29.36N 80.97W
09/20/2012 AMZ550 FL PUBLIC
WATERSPOUT SPOTTED OFF OF ORMOND-BY-THE-SEA.
&&
$$
ARB
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LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
433 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM WATER SPOUT 8 NE ORMOND BEACH 29.36N 80.97W
09/20/2012 AMZ550 FL PUBLIC
WATERSPOUT SPOTTED OFF OF ORMOND-BY-THE-SEA.
&&
$$
ARB
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KJAX [202020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 202020
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E LURAVILLE 30.12N 83.15W
09/20/2012 SUWANNEE FL PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS A LARGE TREE DOWNED NEAR 180TH STREET IN
LURAVILLE. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E LURAVILLE 30.12N 83.15W
09/20/2012 SUWANNEE FL PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS A LARGE TREE DOWNED NEAR 180TH STREET IN
LURAVILLE. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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KKEY [201952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 201952
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
352 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM WATER SPOUT 4 NNW LOWER MATECUMBE K 24.91N 80.74W
09/20/2012 GMZ031 FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL WAS OBSERVED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER
OVER FLORIDA BAY JUST NORTH OF LOWER MATECUMBE KEY. NO
SPRAY RING WAS VISIBLE.
&&
$$
KASPER
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
352 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM WATER SPOUT 4 NNW LOWER MATECUMBE K 24.91N 80.74W
09/20/2012 GMZ031 FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL WAS OBSERVED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER
OVER FLORIDA BAY JUST NORTH OF LOWER MATECUMBE KEY. NO
SPRAY RING WAS VISIBLE.
&&
$$
KASPER
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201948
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN NE MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KS/MO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
MO/KS INTO NORTHERN TX WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO EASTERN OK / SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 201933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN NE MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KS/MO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
MO/KS INTO NORTHERN TX WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO EASTERN OK / SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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KTAE [201941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 201941
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.
&&
$$
HARRIGAN
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.29W
09/20/2012 LOWNDES GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF VSU CAMPUS.
&&
$$
HARRIGAN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201933
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN NE MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KS/MO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
MO/KS INTO NORTHERN TX WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO EASTERN OK / SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 201933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN NE MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KS/MO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
MO/KS INTO NORTHERN TX WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO EASTERN OK / SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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KJAX [201833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 201833
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 PM TSTM WND DMG FOLKSTON 30.84N 82.01W
09/20/2012 CHARLTON GA LAW ENFORCEMENT
THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN
FOLKSTON. THE TIME GIVEN WAS BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
PP
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 PM TSTM WND DMG FOLKSTON 30.84N 82.01W
09/20/2012 CHARLTON GA LAW ENFORCEMENT
THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN
FOLKSTON. THE TIME GIVEN WAS BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
PP
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KJAX [201819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 201819
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW PALM VALLEY 30.18N 81.40W
09/20/2012 ST. JOHNS FL 911 CALL CENTER
THE 911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED A REPORT OF TELEPHONE LINES
BLOWN DOWN AT CANAL ROAD AND ROSCO BLVD. THE TIME GIVEN
WAS BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
PP
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW PALM VALLEY 30.18N 81.40W
09/20/2012 ST. JOHNS FL 911 CALL CENTER
THE 911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED A REPORT OF TELEPHONE LINES
BLOWN DOWN AT CANAL ROAD AND ROSCO BLVD. THE TIME GIVEN
WAS BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
PP
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KJAX [201818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 201818
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0213 PM HAIL 2 E FOLKSTON 30.84N 81.98W
09/20/2012 M0.50 INCH CHARLTON GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH
TO A HALF INCH IN SIZE.
&&
$$
SCHASE
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0213 PM HAIL 2 E FOLKSTON 30.84N 81.98W
09/20/2012 M0.50 INCH CHARLTON GA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH
TO A HALF INCH IN SIZE.
&&
$$
SCHASE
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WATCHES: Test...severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 9999...test
WWUS20 KWNS 201816
SEL9
SPC WW 201816
MTZ000-201900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9999...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1220 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG
AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GLASGOW MONTANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF WOLF POINT
MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TEST FROM THE 15OWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...15_OWS
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SEL9
SPC WW 201816
MTZ000-201900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9999...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1220 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG
AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GLASGOW MONTANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF WOLF POINT
MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TEST FROM THE 15OWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...15_OWS
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KJAX [201811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 201811
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E FOLKSTON 30.84N 81.98W
09/20/2012 E50.00 MPH CHARLTON GA TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM SPOTTER ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
$$
ARS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E FOLKSTON 30.84N 81.98W
09/20/2012 E50.00 MPH CHARLTON GA TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM SPOTTER ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
$$
ARS
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KMHX [201806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMHX 201806 CCA
LSRMHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
206 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TORNADO 2 NNE COMFORT 35.04N 77.46W
09/18/2012 JONES NC NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS CONCLUDED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN THREE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
FIRST TOUCH DOWN WAS TRACKED FOR 0.15 MILES AND WAS 100
YARDS WIDE. IT DOWNED A TREE ALONG HWY-41... DESTROYED A
GREENHOUSE AND DAMAGED A SHED AND OUT BUILDING AT A
RESIDENCE. THE SECOND TOUCH DOWN WAS MAINLY EVIDENT IN
TREE DAMAGE AND FLIPPED A FARM IRRIGATION SYSTEM. THE
TRACK WAS ABOUT 0.5 MILES IN LENGTH AND 150 YARDS WIDE.
THE THIRD TOUCH DOWN WAS ABOUT 300 YARDS WIDE AND
TRACKED AROUND 0.25 MILES. IT OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF WHITAKER RD AND HWY-41. THE DAMAGE WAS MAINLY TO TREES
AND FEW ROAD SIGNS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MHX1200438
$$
PAGANO
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LSRMHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
206 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TORNADO 2 NNE COMFORT 35.04N 77.46W
09/18/2012 JONES NC NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS CONCLUDED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN THREE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
FIRST TOUCH DOWN WAS TRACKED FOR 0.15 MILES AND WAS 100
YARDS WIDE. IT DOWNED A TREE ALONG HWY-41... DESTROYED A
GREENHOUSE AND DAMAGED A SHED AND OUT BUILDING AT A
RESIDENCE. THE SECOND TOUCH DOWN WAS MAINLY EVIDENT IN
TREE DAMAGE AND FLIPPED A FARM IRRIGATION SYSTEM. THE
TRACK WAS ABOUT 0.5 MILES IN LENGTH AND 150 YARDS WIDE.
THE THIRD TOUCH DOWN WAS ABOUT 300 YARDS WIDE AND
TRACKED AROUND 0.25 MILES. IT OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF WHITAKER RD AND HWY-41. THE DAMAGE WAS MAINLY TO TREES
AND FEW ROAD SIGNS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MHX1200438
$$
PAGANO
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KMHX [201757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMHX 201757
LSRMHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TORNADO 2 NNE COMFORT 35.04N 77.46W
09/18/2012 JONES NC NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS CONCLUDED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN THREE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
FIRST TOUCH DOWN WAS TRACKED FOR 0.15 MILES AND WAS 100
YARDS WIDE. IT DOWNED A TREE ALONG HWY-41... DESTROYED A
GREENHOUSE AND DAMAGED A SHED AND OUT BUILDING AT A
RESIDENCE. THE SECOND TOUCH DOWN WAS MAINLY EVIDENT IN
TREE DAMAGE AND FLIPPED A FARM IRRIGATION SYSTEM. THE
TRACK WAS ABOUT 0.5 MILES IN LENGTH AND 150 YARDS WIDE.
THE THIRD TOUCH DOWN WAS ABOUT 300 YARDS WIDE AND
TRACKED AR
&&
EVENT NUMBER MHX1200438
$$
PAGANO
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LSRMHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TORNADO 2 NNE COMFORT 35.04N 77.46W
09/18/2012 JONES NC NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS CONCLUDED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN THREE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
FIRST TOUCH DOWN WAS TRACKED FOR 0.15 MILES AND WAS 100
YARDS WIDE. IT DOWNED A TREE ALONG HWY-41... DESTROYED A
GREENHOUSE AND DAMAGED A SHED AND OUT BUILDING AT A
RESIDENCE. THE SECOND TOUCH DOWN WAS MAINLY EVIDENT IN
TREE DAMAGE AND FLIPPED A FARM IRRIGATION SYSTEM. THE
TRACK WAS ABOUT 0.5 MILES IN LENGTH AND 150 YARDS WIDE.
THE THIRD TOUCH DOWN WAS ABOUT 300 YARDS WIDE AND
TRACKED AR
&&
EVENT NUMBER MHX1200438
$$
PAGANO
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 201740
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
MANITOBA...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BECOMING
ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC PATTERN AS IT
CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MI...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS WRN MI...NRN IL...CNTRL MO
AND NRN OK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
BE REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WITH ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN
NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES DEPENDING ON
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING ACTIVITY IN
BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR
FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 201729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
MANITOBA...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BECOMING
ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC PATTERN AS IT
CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MI...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS WRN MI...NRN IL...CNTRL MO
AND NRN OK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
BE REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WITH ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN
NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES DEPENDING ON
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING ACTIVITY IN
BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR
FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 201730
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
MANITOBA...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BECOMING
ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC PATTERN AS IT
CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MI...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS WRN MI...NRN IL...CNTRL MO
AND NRN OK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
BE REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WITH ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN
NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES DEPENDING ON
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING ACTIVITY IN
BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR
FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 201729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
MANITOBA...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BECOMING
ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC PATTERN AS IT
CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MI...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS WRN MI...NRN IL...CNTRL MO
AND NRN OK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
BE REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WITH ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN
NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES DEPENDING ON
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING ACTIVITY IN
BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR
FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201656
SWODY1
SPC AC 201637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN SD MOVING INTO NE. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO /
SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHWESTERN OH/ EASTERN LOWER MI.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 201637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN SD MOVING INTO NE. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO /
SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHWESTERN OH/ EASTERN LOWER MI.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201637
SWODY1
SPC AC 201637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN SD MOVING INTO NE. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO /
SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHWESTERN OH/ EASTERN LOWER MI.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 201637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN SD MOVING INTO NE. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO /
SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHWESTERN OH/ EASTERN LOWER MI.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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KLSX [201508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 201508
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0953 AM HAIL TRENTON 38.61N 89.68W
09/20/2012 E0.70 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL SHOWER... NO RAIN ACCOMPANIED HAIL.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0953 AM HAIL TRENTON 38.61N 89.68W
09/20/2012 E0.70 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL SHOWER... NO RAIN ACCOMPANIED HAIL.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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KLWX [201424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS51 KLWX 201424
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW HOOD 38.35N 78.40W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG KINDER HOOK RD.
0914 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BRIGHTWOOD 38.42N 78.19W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG RIDGEVIEW ROAD.
1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SMITHSBURG 39.65N 77.57W
09/18/2012 WASHINGTON MD PUBLIC
STRONG WINDS KNOCKED A TREE DOWN ONTO POWER LINES NEAR
SMITHSBURG...MD.
1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S ARODA 38.30N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG BEAUTIFUL RUN RD.
1042 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW HAYWOOD 38.48N 78.26W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG DUET ROAD.
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN AT THE 2500 BLOCK OF SHEPHERDS MILL RD
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF LOCKES MILL RD AND
PARSHALL RD
1108 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BRIGGS 39.10N 77.96W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT PARSHALL RD AND LOCKES MILL RD.
1115 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 2500 BLOCK OF SHEPHERDS MILL RD.
1119 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE RIPLEY 38.55N 77.06W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG HAWTHORNE RD
1125 AM TSTM WND DMG PURCELLVILLE 39.14N 77.71W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE TREE DOWN IN NEIGHBORING YARD. EST WIND GUST AT
60 MPH.
1127 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE SEVEN FOUNTAINS 38.88N 78.39W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR 10000 BLOCK FORT VALLEY RD
1228 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTEBELLO 37.86N 79.14W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
A TREE DOWN IN THE MONTEBELLO AREA.
1255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW LA PLATA 38.54N 76.98W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD TRAINED SPOTTER
SMALL BRANCHES ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE SNAPPING
FROM GUSTY WINDS
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE WINCHESTER 39.17N 78.16W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
RUSHING WATER A FEW INCHES DEEP IN AND AROUND THE
CAMPUS OF SHENANDOAH UNIVERSITY
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE WINCHESTER 39.19N 78.14W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF RT 7 AND I-81
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE WINCHESTER 39.19N 78.16W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
WATER 6 TO 8 INCHES DEEP IN DOWNTOWN WINCHESTER
0106 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE TYE RIVER 37.64N 78.93W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG TYE RIVER ROAD IN THE TYE RIVER AREA.
0106 PM TSTM WND DMG JEFFERSON 39.36N 77.53W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 464 AND LANDER
ROAD.
0110 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE BUFFALO SPRINGS 37.61N 78.84W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TWO TREES DOWN ALONG NORWOOD RD NEAR GLADSTONE.
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW FABER 37.85N 78.75W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
A LARGE TREE KNOCKED DOWN ONTO POWER LINES ALONG ROUTE
29 IN THE FABER AREA.
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG AFTON 38.03N 78.84W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
ONE TREE DOWN IN THE AFTON AREA.
0119 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE WOLFTOWN 38.34N 78.33W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG SHELBY RUN RD.
0119 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE FREDERICK 39.42N 77.41W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 355 AND MARKET
SPACE ROAD.
0125 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W PURCELLVILLE 39.13N 77.74W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER COVERING ROADWAY ALONG TRANQUILITY ROAD
0125 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE PURCELLVILLE 39.16N 77.70W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER FLOWING AND COVERING BRIDGE ON ALLDER SCHOOL ROAD
0126 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BALLENGER CREEK 39.37N 77.39W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN AT URBANA PIKE AND ARABY CHURCH RD
0128 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE PRATTS 38.36N 78.27W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG FAIRGROUNDS RD.
0132 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ARODA 38.32N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TWO TREES DOWN ALONG GOOD HOPE CHURCH ROAD.
0132 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE HAYWOOD 38.43N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG HEBRON VALLEY ROAD.
0136 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW TWYMANS MILL 38.31N 78.19W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG GEORGE JAMES LOOP.
0139 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BEL ALTON 38.46N 76.99W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FAIRGROUNDS RD AND BEL
ALTON NEWTOWN RD
0140 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FREDERICK 39.41N 77.43W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD PUBLIC
12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER COVERING PATRICK STREET NEAR
WEST FREDERICK MIDDLE SCHOOL.
0141 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE BRIGHTWOOD 38.42N 78.17W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG THOROUGHFARE ROAD.
0145 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 ESE REVA 38.48N 78.09W
09/18/2012 CULPEPER VA OTHER FEDERAL
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR GLENDALE CIRCLE.
0200 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE MIDDLEBURG 39.01N 77.70W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON SNICKERSVILLE PIKE.
0222 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S ALDIE 38.93N 77.65W
09/18/2012 PRINCE WILLIAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON MOUNTAIN ROAD.
0226 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.31W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
INTERSECTION OF MD 140 AND HARNEY ROAD FLOODED AND
CLOSED.
0229 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE MYERSVILLE 39.53N 77.54W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WOLFSVILLE ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED AT CROW ROCK ROAD.
0244 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE RESTON 38.95N 77.33W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON WIEHLE AVENUE.
0244 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG VIENNA 38.89N 77.29W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA CO-OP OBSERVER
SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN DUE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
0245 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBURG 39.59N 77.21W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
1 LANE CLOSED BETWEEN THE 5800 AND 5900 BLOCK OF
MIDDLEBURG RD WITH A TREE BRANCH ONTO TELEPHONE WIRES
0252 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE BROKENBURG 38.12N 77.68W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT GLEBE RUN AND GLEBE ESTATES RD.
0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE CARROLLTON 39.58N 76.90W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
COON CLUB ROAD CLOSED DUE TO TREE LIMBS ACROSS ROAD
0256 PM FLOOD 1 E JEROME 38.86N 78.72W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DELLINGER GAP ROAD AND SUPINLICK RIDGE ROAD BOTH
FLOODED BY STONY CREEK.
0256 PM FLOOD 1 NW CLARY 39.04N 78.38W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
MUMAW LANE AND OLD GRADE ROAD BOTH FLOODED BY MULBERRY
RUN.
0256 PM FLOOD ARMEL 39.07N 78.14W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NATIONS SPRING ROAD FLOODED BY WRIGHTS RUN NEAR ROUTE
522.
0256 PM FLOOD FISHERS HILL 38.99N 78.40W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BATTLEFIELD ROAD AT COPP ROAD FLOODED BY TUMBLING RUN.
0258 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SPOTSYLVANIA COURTH 38.18N 77.59W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 8200 BLOCK OF COURTHOUSE RD.
0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W LINCOLNIA 38.82N 77.16W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON LITTLE RIVER TURNPIKE NEAR BRADDOCK ROAD.
0303 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E GRACEHAM 39.61N 77.36W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OWENS CREEK FLOODED OVER ROUTE 77 AT FRUSHOUR ROAD.
0304 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE PATAPSCO 39.53N 76.89W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE ONTO WIRES ALONG TANK ROAD.
0304 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW MASSAPONAX 38.24N 77.52W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT CREEKSIDE CT. AND RUNNING CEDAR LN.
0307 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW ROCK CREEK 38.91N 77.07W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF 33RD ST AND P ST
NW
0310 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S REAGAN NATIONAL AIR 38.85N 77.03W
09/18/2012 M61 MPH ARLINGTON VA ASOS
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG GARRETT PARK 39.04N 77.09W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD NWS EMPLOYEE
TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON TRAIN TRACKS.
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N THORNBURG 38.16N 77.52W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON RT. 1 AT NORTH ROXBERRY MILL RD.
0311 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW US CAPITOL 38.90N 77.01W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF 2ND ST AND E ST
NW
0313 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW CATHOLIC UNIVERSI 38.94N 77.03W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING 900 BLOCK OF SHEPHERD ST NW
0316 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW CHILLUM 38.96N 77.00W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN ON 400 BLOCK OF OLGLETHORPE ST NE
0322 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW SUITLAND-SILVER H 38.84N 76.93W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING EASTBOUND LN ON SUITLAND PARKWAY
0325 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTMINSTER 39.58N 77.01W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR
UTILITY LINES DOWN ON SALEM BOTTOM ROAD AT THE
INTERSECTION OF SONDIE DRIVE
0327 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E OELLA 39.27N 76.77W
09/18/2012 BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER
PEAR TREE SPLIT IN HALF BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
0335 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N COLUMBIA 39.24N 76.86W
09/18/2012 E60 MPH HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.
0335 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N COLUMBIA 39.24N 76.86W
09/18/2012 HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER
FLOODING ON SNOWY REACH RD
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N FOREST HILL 39.60N 76.39W
09/18/2012 HARFORD MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 24 AND GREER
NURSERY ROAD.
0343 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW ROCKVILLE 39.09N 77.17W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OFF RAMP OF I-270 NORTH REPORTED FLOODED AT THE
MONTGOMERY AVENUE EXIT.
0346 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W POMFRET 38.58N 77.08W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON BUMPY CREEK RD NEAR THE INDIAN HEAD TRAIL
CROSSING.
0351 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW CAPE ARTHUR 39.07N 76.55W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD CO-OP OBSERVER
A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN SEVERNA PARK.
0355 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BEL ALTON 38.49N 76.99W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON FAIRGROUNDS RD.
0358 PM TSTM WND DMG BELVEDERE HEIGHTS 39.06N 76.51W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF TREE ON 700 BLOCK OF
MACSHERRY DR
0400 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE WOODLAWN 39.29N 76.73W
09/18/2012 BALTIMORE MD PUBLIC
APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER NATIONAL PIKE NEAR
INGLESIDE.
0400 PM FLOOD FREDERICK 39.43N 77.42W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NUMEROUS ROADS REPORTED CLOSED IN FREDERICK
COUNTY...INCLUDING IN FREDERICK AND THURMONT.
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTPELIER 39.06N 76.85W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE COVERING RIGHT LANE OF MD STATE ROUTE 295
NEAR 197
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW LANDOVER HILLS 38.96N 76.90W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN COVERING A VEHICLE ON MD STATE ROUTE 295 NEAR
ROUTE 410.
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG SUITLAND-SILVER HILL 38.85N 76.92W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE NEAR SUITLAND PARKWAY AND SILVER HILL ROAD.
0418 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N CHARLOTTE HALL 38.50N 76.79W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 14000 BLOCK OF OAKS RD.
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD CHEVY CHASE VIEW 39.02N 77.08W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CONNECTICUT AVENUE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AT SAUL ROAD.
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE KEYSVILLE 39.65N 77.24W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ALONG SOUTH BAUMGARDNER RD
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE HARNEY 39.70N 77.15W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ON TEETER RD
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW ABERDEEN PROVING 39.47N 76.17W
09/18/2012 M58 MPH HARFORD MD CO-OP OBSERVER
0451 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW DOWELL 38.35N 76.47W
09/18/2012 CALVERT MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE ACROSS ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF COSTER RD AND
SPRING COVE LN
0745 PM FLOOD 1 NNW KEYSVILLE 39.64N 77.26W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ALONG KEYSVILLE FREDERICK COUNTY
RD
0745 PM FLOOD 1 SW LINEBORO 39.70N 76.86W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER ALLOWING FOR BRIDGE TO START TO FLOOD ALONG
LINEBORO RD
0800 PM FLOOD 2 NW KEYSVILLE 39.66N 77.29W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD EMERGENCY MNGR
SIXES BRIDGE RD AT FREDERICK AND CARROLL BORDER CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING.
1124 PM FLOOD THURMONT 39.62N 77.41W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED NEAR THE MONOCACY RIVER IN
THURMONT.
0524 AM FLOOD THURMONT 39.62N 77.41W
09/19/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
ROADS CLOSED IN THURMONT AND EMMITSBURG NEAR THE
MONOCACY RIVER.
0534 AM FLOOD TANEYTOWN 39.66N 77.17W
09/19/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
KEYSVILLE FREDERICK COUNTY ROAD...MUMMA FORD ROAD...AND
MIDDLEBURG ROAD WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
0841 AM FLOOD EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.33W
09/19/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
MULTIPLE ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED NEAR EMMITSBURG ALONG
WITH MICHEALS MILL ROAD NEAR BUCKEYSTOWN...MD DUE TO
FLOODING ALONG THE MONOCACY RIVER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201302 LWX1201303 LWX1201292 LWX1201306 LWX1201308
LWX1201276 LWX1201277 LWX1201232 LWX1201234 LWX1201275 LWX1201233
LWX1201267 LWX1201297 LWX1201235 LWX1201236 LWX1201237 LWX1201238
LWX1201294 LWX1201317 LWX1201295 LWX1201293 LWX1201296 LWX1201309
LWX1201316 LWX1201240 LWX1201241 LWX1201291 LWX1201310 LWX1201311
LWX1201314 LWX1201312 LWX1201274 LWX1201239 LWX1201313 LWX1201255
LWX1201256 LWX1201257 LWX1201242 LWX1201243 LWX1201258 LWX1201288
LWX1201251 LWX1201300 LWX1201249 LWX1201245 LWX1201246 LWX1201247
LWX1201248 LWX1201299 LWX1201259 LWX1201244 LWX1201252 LWX1201298
LWX1201319 LWX1201250 LWX1201283 LWX1201301 LWX1201318 LWX1201321
LWX1201320 LWX1201322 LWX1201260 LWX1201268 LWX1201269 LWX1201270
LWX1201315 LWX1201254 LWX1201304 LWX1201289 LWX1201305 LWX1201323
LWX1201261 LWX1201262 LWX1201264 LWX1201265 LWX1201266 LWX1201307
LWX1201263 LWX1201278 LWX1201279 LWX1201290 LWX1201273 LWX1201280
LWX1201281 LWX1201282 LWX1201285 LWX1201284 LWX1201286 LWX1201287
$$
JRK
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW HOOD 38.35N 78.40W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG KINDER HOOK RD.
0914 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BRIGHTWOOD 38.42N 78.19W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG RIDGEVIEW ROAD.
1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SMITHSBURG 39.65N 77.57W
09/18/2012 WASHINGTON MD PUBLIC
STRONG WINDS KNOCKED A TREE DOWN ONTO POWER LINES NEAR
SMITHSBURG...MD.
1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S ARODA 38.30N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG BEAUTIFUL RUN RD.
1042 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW HAYWOOD 38.48N 78.26W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG DUET ROAD.
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN AT THE 2500 BLOCK OF SHEPHERDS MILL RD
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF LOCKES MILL RD AND
PARSHALL RD
1108 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BRIGGS 39.10N 77.96W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT PARSHALL RD AND LOCKES MILL RD.
1115 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WICKLIFFE 39.16N 77.92W
09/18/2012 CLARKE VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 2500 BLOCK OF SHEPHERDS MILL RD.
1119 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE RIPLEY 38.55N 77.06W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG HAWTHORNE RD
1125 AM TSTM WND DMG PURCELLVILLE 39.14N 77.71W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE TREE DOWN IN NEIGHBORING YARD. EST WIND GUST AT
60 MPH.
1127 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE SEVEN FOUNTAINS 38.88N 78.39W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR 10000 BLOCK FORT VALLEY RD
1228 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTEBELLO 37.86N 79.14W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
A TREE DOWN IN THE MONTEBELLO AREA.
1255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW LA PLATA 38.54N 76.98W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD TRAINED SPOTTER
SMALL BRANCHES ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE SNAPPING
FROM GUSTY WINDS
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE WINCHESTER 39.17N 78.16W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
RUSHING WATER A FEW INCHES DEEP IN AND AROUND THE
CAMPUS OF SHENANDOAH UNIVERSITY
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE WINCHESTER 39.19N 78.14W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF RT 7 AND I-81
0100 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE WINCHESTER 39.19N 78.16W
09/18/2012 CITY OF WINCHESTER VA BROADCAST MEDIA
WATER 6 TO 8 INCHES DEEP IN DOWNTOWN WINCHESTER
0106 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE TYE RIVER 37.64N 78.93W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG TYE RIVER ROAD IN THE TYE RIVER AREA.
0106 PM TSTM WND DMG JEFFERSON 39.36N 77.53W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 464 AND LANDER
ROAD.
0110 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE BUFFALO SPRINGS 37.61N 78.84W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TWO TREES DOWN ALONG NORWOOD RD NEAR GLADSTONE.
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW FABER 37.85N 78.75W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
A LARGE TREE KNOCKED DOWN ONTO POWER LINES ALONG ROUTE
29 IN THE FABER AREA.
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG AFTON 38.03N 78.84W
09/18/2012 NELSON VA 911 CALL CENTER
ONE TREE DOWN IN THE AFTON AREA.
0119 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE WOLFTOWN 38.34N 78.33W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG SHELBY RUN RD.
0119 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE FREDERICK 39.42N 77.41W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 355 AND MARKET
SPACE ROAD.
0125 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W PURCELLVILLE 39.13N 77.74W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER COVERING ROADWAY ALONG TRANQUILITY ROAD
0125 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE PURCELLVILLE 39.16N 77.70W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER FLOWING AND COVERING BRIDGE ON ALLDER SCHOOL ROAD
0126 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BALLENGER CREEK 39.37N 77.39W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN AT URBANA PIKE AND ARABY CHURCH RD
0128 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE PRATTS 38.36N 78.27W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG FAIRGROUNDS RD.
0132 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ARODA 38.32N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TWO TREES DOWN ALONG GOOD HOPE CHURCH ROAD.
0132 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE HAYWOOD 38.43N 78.23W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG HEBRON VALLEY ROAD.
0136 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW TWYMANS MILL 38.31N 78.19W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG GEORGE JAMES LOOP.
0139 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BEL ALTON 38.46N 76.99W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FAIRGROUNDS RD AND BEL
ALTON NEWTOWN RD
0140 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FREDERICK 39.41N 77.43W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD PUBLIC
12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER COVERING PATRICK STREET NEAR
WEST FREDERICK MIDDLE SCHOOL.
0141 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE BRIGHTWOOD 38.42N 78.17W
09/18/2012 MADISON VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ALONG THOROUGHFARE ROAD.
0145 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 ESE REVA 38.48N 78.09W
09/18/2012 CULPEPER VA OTHER FEDERAL
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR GLENDALE CIRCLE.
0200 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE MIDDLEBURG 39.01N 77.70W
09/18/2012 LOUDOUN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON SNICKERSVILLE PIKE.
0222 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S ALDIE 38.93N 77.65W
09/18/2012 PRINCE WILLIAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON MOUNTAIN ROAD.
0226 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.31W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
INTERSECTION OF MD 140 AND HARNEY ROAD FLOODED AND
CLOSED.
0229 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE MYERSVILLE 39.53N 77.54W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WOLFSVILLE ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED AT CROW ROCK ROAD.
0244 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE RESTON 38.95N 77.33W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON WIEHLE AVENUE.
0244 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG VIENNA 38.89N 77.29W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA CO-OP OBSERVER
SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN DUE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
0245 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBURG 39.59N 77.21W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
1 LANE CLOSED BETWEEN THE 5800 AND 5900 BLOCK OF
MIDDLEBURG RD WITH A TREE BRANCH ONTO TELEPHONE WIRES
0252 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE BROKENBURG 38.12N 77.68W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT GLEBE RUN AND GLEBE ESTATES RD.
0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE CARROLLTON 39.58N 76.90W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
COON CLUB ROAD CLOSED DUE TO TREE LIMBS ACROSS ROAD
0256 PM FLOOD 1 E JEROME 38.86N 78.72W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DELLINGER GAP ROAD AND SUPINLICK RIDGE ROAD BOTH
FLOODED BY STONY CREEK.
0256 PM FLOOD 1 NW CLARY 39.04N 78.38W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
MUMAW LANE AND OLD GRADE ROAD BOTH FLOODED BY MULBERRY
RUN.
0256 PM FLOOD ARMEL 39.07N 78.14W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NATIONS SPRING ROAD FLOODED BY WRIGHTS RUN NEAR ROUTE
522.
0256 PM FLOOD FISHERS HILL 38.99N 78.40W
09/18/2012 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BATTLEFIELD ROAD AT COPP ROAD FLOODED BY TUMBLING RUN.
0258 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SPOTSYLVANIA COURTH 38.18N 77.59W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 8200 BLOCK OF COURTHOUSE RD.
0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W LINCOLNIA 38.82N 77.16W
09/18/2012 FAIRFAX VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN ON LITTLE RIVER TURNPIKE NEAR BRADDOCK ROAD.
0303 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E GRACEHAM 39.61N 77.36W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OWENS CREEK FLOODED OVER ROUTE 77 AT FRUSHOUR ROAD.
0304 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE PATAPSCO 39.53N 76.89W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE ONTO WIRES ALONG TANK ROAD.
0304 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW MASSAPONAX 38.24N 77.52W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN AT CREEKSIDE CT. AND RUNNING CEDAR LN.
0307 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW ROCK CREEK 38.91N 77.07W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF 33RD ST AND P ST
NW
0310 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S REAGAN NATIONAL AIR 38.85N 77.03W
09/18/2012 M61 MPH ARLINGTON VA ASOS
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG GARRETT PARK 39.04N 77.09W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD NWS EMPLOYEE
TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON TRAIN TRACKS.
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N THORNBURG 38.16N 77.52W
09/18/2012 SPOTSYLVANIA VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON RT. 1 AT NORTH ROXBERRY MILL RD.
0311 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW US CAPITOL 38.90N 77.01W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF 2ND ST AND E ST
NW
0313 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW CATHOLIC UNIVERSI 38.94N 77.03W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING 900 BLOCK OF SHEPHERD ST NW
0316 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW CHILLUM 38.96N 77.00W
09/18/2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN ON 400 BLOCK OF OLGLETHORPE ST NE
0322 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW SUITLAND-SILVER H 38.84N 76.93W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD NEWSPAPER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING EASTBOUND LN ON SUITLAND PARKWAY
0325 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTMINSTER 39.58N 77.01W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR
UTILITY LINES DOWN ON SALEM BOTTOM ROAD AT THE
INTERSECTION OF SONDIE DRIVE
0327 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E OELLA 39.27N 76.77W
09/18/2012 BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER
PEAR TREE SPLIT IN HALF BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
0335 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N COLUMBIA 39.24N 76.86W
09/18/2012 E60 MPH HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.
0335 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N COLUMBIA 39.24N 76.86W
09/18/2012 HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER
FLOODING ON SNOWY REACH RD
0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N FOREST HILL 39.60N 76.39W
09/18/2012 HARFORD MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD 24 AND GREER
NURSERY ROAD.
0343 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW ROCKVILLE 39.09N 77.17W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OFF RAMP OF I-270 NORTH REPORTED FLOODED AT THE
MONTGOMERY AVENUE EXIT.
0346 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W POMFRET 38.58N 77.08W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON BUMPY CREEK RD NEAR THE INDIAN HEAD TRAIL
CROSSING.
0351 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW CAPE ARTHUR 39.07N 76.55W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD CO-OP OBSERVER
A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN SEVERNA PARK.
0355 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BEL ALTON 38.49N 76.99W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON FAIRGROUNDS RD.
0358 PM TSTM WND DMG BELVEDERE HEIGHTS 39.06N 76.51W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF TREE ON 700 BLOCK OF
MACSHERRY DR
0400 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE WOODLAWN 39.29N 76.73W
09/18/2012 BALTIMORE MD PUBLIC
APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER NATIONAL PIKE NEAR
INGLESIDE.
0400 PM FLOOD FREDERICK 39.43N 77.42W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NUMEROUS ROADS REPORTED CLOSED IN FREDERICK
COUNTY...INCLUDING IN FREDERICK AND THURMONT.
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTPELIER 39.06N 76.85W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE COVERING RIGHT LANE OF MD STATE ROUTE 295
NEAR 197
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW LANDOVER HILLS 38.96N 76.90W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN COVERING A VEHICLE ON MD STATE ROUTE 295 NEAR
ROUTE 410.
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG SUITLAND-SILVER HILL 38.85N 76.92W
09/18/2012 PRINCE GEORGES MD BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE NEAR SUITLAND PARKWAY AND SILVER HILL ROAD.
0418 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N CHARLOTTE HALL 38.50N 76.79W
09/18/2012 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON 14000 BLOCK OF OAKS RD.
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD CHEVY CHASE VIEW 39.02N 77.08W
09/18/2012 MONTGOMERY MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CONNECTICUT AVENUE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AT SAUL ROAD.
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE KEYSVILLE 39.65N 77.24W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ALONG SOUTH BAUMGARDNER RD
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE HARNEY 39.70N 77.15W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ON TEETER RD
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW ABERDEEN PROVING 39.47N 76.17W
09/18/2012 M58 MPH HARFORD MD CO-OP OBSERVER
0451 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW DOWELL 38.35N 76.47W
09/18/2012 CALVERT MD 911 CALL CENTER
TREE ACROSS ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF COSTER RD AND
SPRING COVE LN
0745 PM FLOOD 1 NNW KEYSVILLE 39.64N 77.26W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE ALONG KEYSVILLE FREDERICK COUNTY
RD
0745 PM FLOOD 1 SW LINEBORO 39.70N 76.86W
09/18/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER ALLOWING FOR BRIDGE TO START TO FLOOD ALONG
LINEBORO RD
0800 PM FLOOD 2 NW KEYSVILLE 39.66N 77.29W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD EMERGENCY MNGR
SIXES BRIDGE RD AT FREDERICK AND CARROLL BORDER CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING.
1124 PM FLOOD THURMONT 39.62N 77.41W
09/18/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED NEAR THE MONOCACY RIVER IN
THURMONT.
0524 AM FLOOD THURMONT 39.62N 77.41W
09/19/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
ROADS CLOSED IN THURMONT AND EMMITSBURG NEAR THE
MONOCACY RIVER.
0534 AM FLOOD TANEYTOWN 39.66N 77.17W
09/19/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
KEYSVILLE FREDERICK COUNTY ROAD...MUMMA FORD ROAD...AND
MIDDLEBURG ROAD WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
0841 AM FLOOD EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.33W
09/19/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
MULTIPLE ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED NEAR EMMITSBURG ALONG
WITH MICHEALS MILL ROAD NEAR BUCKEYSTOWN...MD DUE TO
FLOODING ALONG THE MONOCACY RIVER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201302 LWX1201303 LWX1201292 LWX1201306 LWX1201308
LWX1201276 LWX1201277 LWX1201232 LWX1201234 LWX1201275 LWX1201233
LWX1201267 LWX1201297 LWX1201235 LWX1201236 LWX1201237 LWX1201238
LWX1201294 LWX1201317 LWX1201295 LWX1201293 LWX1201296 LWX1201309
LWX1201316 LWX1201240 LWX1201241 LWX1201291 LWX1201310 LWX1201311
LWX1201314 LWX1201312 LWX1201274 LWX1201239 LWX1201313 LWX1201255
LWX1201256 LWX1201257 LWX1201242 LWX1201243 LWX1201258 LWX1201288
LWX1201251 LWX1201300 LWX1201249 LWX1201245 LWX1201246 LWX1201247
LWX1201248 LWX1201299 LWX1201259 LWX1201244 LWX1201252 LWX1201298
LWX1201319 LWX1201250 LWX1201283 LWX1201301 LWX1201318 LWX1201321
LWX1201320 LWX1201322 LWX1201260 LWX1201268 LWX1201269 LWX1201270
LWX1201315 LWX1201254 LWX1201304 LWX1201289 LWX1201305 LWX1201323
LWX1201261 LWX1201262 LWX1201264 LWX1201265 LWX1201266 LWX1201307
LWX1201263 LWX1201278 LWX1201279 LWX1201290 LWX1201273 LWX1201280
LWX1201281 LWX1201282 LWX1201285 LWX1201284 LWX1201286 LWX1201287
$$
JRK
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KLWX [201340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KLWX 201340
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0358 PM TSTM WND DMG BELVEDERE HEIGHTS 39.06N 76.51W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF TREE ON 700 BLOCK OF
MACSHERRY DR
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201323
$$
JRK
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0358 PM TSTM WND DMG BELVEDERE HEIGHTS 39.06N 76.51W
09/18/2012 ANNE ARUNDEL MD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OFF TREE ON 700 BLOCK OF
MACSHERRY DR
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201323
$$
JRK
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KLSX [201324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 201324
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
824 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0817 AM HAIL LEBANON 38.60N 89.81W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL UP TO SIZE OF PEAS.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
824 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0817 AM HAIL LEBANON 38.60N 89.81W
09/20/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL UP TO SIZE OF PEAS.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201233
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE
TRACKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF
NEB/IA/KS/MO AFTER DARK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO
EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF
HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM IL INTO OH/LOWER MI. ALSO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 201230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE
TRACKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF
NEB/IA/KS/MO AFTER DARK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO
EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF
HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM IL INTO OH/LOWER MI. ALSO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/20/2012
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KAPX [201206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 201206
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
805 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
09/19/2012 M42.00 MPH MANISTEE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT CMAN STATION.
1110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WSW HARBOR SPRINGS 45.40N 85.10W
09/19/2012 M40.00 MPH LMZ342 MI BUOY
MEASURED AT LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY BUOY.
1155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HARBOR SPRINGS 45.43N 84.99W
09/19/2012 M39.00 MPH EMMET MI AWOS
0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.86N 84.64W
09/20/2012 M40.00 MPH MACKINAC MI ASOS
0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NNE DETOUR VILLAGE 45.99N 83.90W
09/20/2012 M41.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI BUOY
1258 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E PRESQUE ISLE 45.30N 83.42W
09/20/2012 M43 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI MESONET
1120 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE NAUBINWAY 46.09N 85.44W
09/19/2012 M49 MPH MACKINAC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT NABM4 GLOS STATION.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SEUL CHOIX POINT 45.97N 85.87W
09/19/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI BUOY
0606 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WHITEFISH POINT 46.76N 84.97W
09/19/2012 M45 MPH CHIPPEWA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT WFPM4 GLOS SITE.
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
805 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
09/19/2012 M42.00 MPH MANISTEE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT CMAN STATION.
1110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WSW HARBOR SPRINGS 45.40N 85.10W
09/19/2012 M40.00 MPH LMZ342 MI BUOY
MEASURED AT LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY BUOY.
1155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HARBOR SPRINGS 45.43N 84.99W
09/19/2012 M39.00 MPH EMMET MI AWOS
0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.86N 84.64W
09/20/2012 M40.00 MPH MACKINAC MI ASOS
0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NNE DETOUR VILLAGE 45.99N 83.90W
09/20/2012 M41.00 MPH CHIPPEWA MI BUOY
1258 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E PRESQUE ISLE 45.30N 83.42W
09/20/2012 M43 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI MESONET
1120 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE NAUBINWAY 46.09N 85.44W
09/19/2012 M49 MPH MACKINAC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT NABM4 GLOS STATION.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SEUL CHOIX POINT 45.97N 85.87W
09/19/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI BUOY
0606 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WHITEFISH POINT 46.76N 84.97W
09/19/2012 M45 MPH CHIPPEWA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED AT WFPM4 GLOS SITE.
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 200833
SWOD48
SPC AC 200832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST OVER GREAT LAKES
AND MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION AND NET HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED STARTING
DAY-5/23RD-24TH. MEANWHILE...WRN CONUS RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN AS
BELT OF WLYS AND ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS MOVE ASHORE BETWEEN CA AND
AK PANHANDLE. FIRST OF THOSE PERTURBATIONS -- NOW APPARENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS CYCLONE OFFSHORE ORE -- SHOULD MOVE
ASHORE PAC NW DAY-3 THEN REACH GREAT BASIN DAY-5.
THEREAFTER...PROGS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSED/GREAT-BASIN LOW OR EJECT EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AS OPEN
WAVE. AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS...TSTM EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE DAYS
5-8/24TH-28TH OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. KEY DETAILS IN
SHORTWAVE PROGS...AND RELATED EFFECTS ON LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
MASS FIELDS...APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN TO DRAW SPECIFIC SVR AREAS
ATTM...ESPECIALLY AOA 30% PROBABILITY LEVELS.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 200832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST OVER GREAT LAKES
AND MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION AND NET HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED STARTING
DAY-5/23RD-24TH. MEANWHILE...WRN CONUS RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN AS
BELT OF WLYS AND ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS MOVE ASHORE BETWEEN CA AND
AK PANHANDLE. FIRST OF THOSE PERTURBATIONS -- NOW APPARENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS CYCLONE OFFSHORE ORE -- SHOULD MOVE
ASHORE PAC NW DAY-3 THEN REACH GREAT BASIN DAY-5.
THEREAFTER...PROGS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSED/GREAT-BASIN LOW OR EJECT EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AS OPEN
WAVE. AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS...TSTM EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE DAYS
5-8/24TH-28TH OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. KEY DETAILS IN
SHORTWAVE PROGS...AND RELATED EFFECTS ON LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
MASS FIELDS...APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN TO DRAW SPECIFIC SVR AREAS
ATTM...ESPECIALLY AOA 30% PROBABILITY LEVELS.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 200733
SWODY3
SPC AC 200731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
INLAND MID-ATLC......
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN MS VALLEY
TO NRN GULF. PRIMARY/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION DESCRIBED IN
DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD PIVOT EWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION...FROM
IL/LM ACROSS LOWER MI...INDIANA...OH...AND LE. PROGS DO VARY SOME
IN LATITUDINAL EXTENT REGARDING TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
NONETHELESS...WHAT AMOUNTS TO JUST MESOSCALE DISCREPANCIES ALOFT
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE NOW OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
STG LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID-ATLC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS REGIONS EARLY-MIDDLE PERIOD...REACHING ERN NY...ERN
PA...WRN VA...ERN TN...AND NRN/CENTRAL AL BY 23/00Z. FRONT SHOULD
PROCEED EWD TO NEAR WRN MAINE...CAPE COD...ERN NC AND FL PANHANDLE
BY END OF PERIOD. PASSAGE OF FRONT ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BE
TIMED WELL WITH RESPECT TO PEAK WARM-SECTOR THETAE.
...NERN CONUS...MID-ATLC...
AS FRONT AND PERHAPS PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE PROCEED
EWD...RELATED CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LIFT WILL IMPINGE ON
PROGRESSIVELY GREATER ATLC-BASED RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE WITH EWD
EXTENT. SFC DEW POINTS MID-50S TO MID-60S F SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PRESENCE OF SUCH
LIFT...EVEN IF PREFRONTAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS MUTED CONSIDERABLY
BY CLOUD COVER. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND
NEITHER BUOYANCY NOR DEEP-LAYER FORCING APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STG AS
MOST RECENT EVENT IN THIS REGION. STILL...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MRGL
CAPE JUXTAPOSED WITH STG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS INDICATES
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...15% THRESHOLD UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES ARE IS BEING INTRODUCED ATTM...SUBJECT TO INCREASE IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF INSTABILITY/KINEMATIC TRENDS WARRANT.
OVERALL SVR THREAT GENERALLY WILL LESSEN AND BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL
WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH CAROLINAS/SERN CONUS...WITH INCREASING
DISTANCE FROM STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING...MID-UPPER WINDS...AND
FRONTAL LIFT.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 200731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
INLAND MID-ATLC......
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN MS VALLEY
TO NRN GULF. PRIMARY/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION DESCRIBED IN
DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD PIVOT EWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION...FROM
IL/LM ACROSS LOWER MI...INDIANA...OH...AND LE. PROGS DO VARY SOME
IN LATITUDINAL EXTENT REGARDING TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
NONETHELESS...WHAT AMOUNTS TO JUST MESOSCALE DISCREPANCIES ALOFT
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE NOW OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
STG LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID-ATLC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS REGIONS EARLY-MIDDLE PERIOD...REACHING ERN NY...ERN
PA...WRN VA...ERN TN...AND NRN/CENTRAL AL BY 23/00Z. FRONT SHOULD
PROCEED EWD TO NEAR WRN MAINE...CAPE COD...ERN NC AND FL PANHANDLE
BY END OF PERIOD. PASSAGE OF FRONT ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BE
TIMED WELL WITH RESPECT TO PEAK WARM-SECTOR THETAE.
...NERN CONUS...MID-ATLC...
AS FRONT AND PERHAPS PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE PROCEED
EWD...RELATED CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LIFT WILL IMPINGE ON
PROGRESSIVELY GREATER ATLC-BASED RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE WITH EWD
EXTENT. SFC DEW POINTS MID-50S TO MID-60S F SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PRESENCE OF SUCH
LIFT...EVEN IF PREFRONTAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS MUTED CONSIDERABLY
BY CLOUD COVER. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND
NEITHER BUOYANCY NOR DEEP-LAYER FORCING APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STG AS
MOST RECENT EVENT IN THIS REGION. STILL...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MRGL
CAPE JUXTAPOSED WITH STG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS INDICATES
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...15% THRESHOLD UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES ARE IS BEING INTRODUCED ATTM...SUBJECT TO INCREASE IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF INSTABILITY/KINEMATIC TRENDS WARRANT.
OVERALL SVR THREAT GENERALLY WILL LESSEN AND BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL
WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH CAROLINAS/SERN CONUS...WITH INCREASING
DISTANCE FROM STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING...MID-UPPER WINDS...AND
FRONTAL LIFT.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED OVER ARCTIC
COAST OF MAINLAND NUNAVUT...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BECOMING ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC
PATTERN AS IT CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD REACH ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS ERN LS...LM...NRN MO AND
SRN KS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL BE
REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WHICH MAY BE BIFURCATED
FURTHER INTO NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES
DEPENDING ON STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING
ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
LIFT NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN PLAINS DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN
MID-SOUTH REGION LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS
REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES/FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 200547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. SERIES OF MOSTLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PRIMARY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IS LOCATED OVER ARCTIC
COAST OF MAINLAND NUNAVUT...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BECOMING ENTRAINED IN WRN/SWRN PORTION OF PREVAILING CYCLONIC
PATTERN AS IT CROSSES SERN MB/NRN MN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD REACH ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI REGION BY 22/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS ERN LS...LM...NRN MO AND
SRN KS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL BE
REINFORCED ACROSS SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2.
...NRN APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE IN ANY OF THREE REGIMES...EACH OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY
LIMITED IN SVR RISK BY LACK OF SHEAR AND/OR BUOYANCY --
1. CARRYOVER FROM DAY-1 OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN WEAKENING REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE INVOF OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...MOVING ENEWD TO NEWD AND WEAKENING DURING MIDDAY.
2 AND 3. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT--WHICH MAY BE BIFURCATED
FURTHER INTO NRN APPALACHIAN/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS REGIMES
DEPENDING ON STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM MORNING
ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN. NERN AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
LIFT NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. OZARKS/AR/OK REGIME WILL HAVE DEEPLY MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYERS...BUT ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN PLAINS DURING PERIOD...THEN SWD OVER OZARKS AND NRN
MID-SOUTH REGION LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS
REGION.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...HOWEVER BUOYANCY APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATCHES OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH TEMPS REACHING 60S F...WILL
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE CINH. SPECIFIC BOUNDARIES/FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR NEBULOUS...THOUGH WEAKLY BAROCLINIC SFC TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
WI/LM/LOWER MI DURING DAY. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...WITH SOME REACHING INTO THERMAL LAYER SUITABLE FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.
...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND
NRN FL...SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH DAY-2...WITH
ONLY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/MOVEMENTS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR FRONT...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH SVR THREAT VERY
LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF BOTH SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 200535
SWODY1
SPC AC 200533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN KS/SWRN MO...
WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NRN OK EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD THE KS BORDER BY 21/00Z. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 90S. THESE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TOWARD NCNTRL OK.
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE RATHER SPARSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY
VEERED...ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY INDUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SEEM SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...FL...
20/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY DEPICTED A FAIRLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 8C WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS POOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTH FL THURSDAY GFS SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH
PROFILES ARE QUITE MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LATEST THINKING IS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/20/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 200533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN KS/SWRN MO...
WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NRN OK EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD THE KS BORDER BY 21/00Z. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 90S. THESE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TOWARD NCNTRL OK.
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE RATHER SPARSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY
VEERED...ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY INDUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SEEM SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...FL...
20/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY DEPICTED A FAIRLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 8C WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS POOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTH FL THURSDAY GFS SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH
PROFILES ARE QUITE MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LATEST THINKING IS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/20/2012
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