ACUS01 KWNS 201933
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN NE MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KS/MO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
MO/KS INTO NORTHERN TX WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO EASTERN OK / SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012
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