Friday, October 3, 2008

KMFR [040256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 040256
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
756 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
10/03/2008 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

MIDNIGHT-4PM


&&

$$

SVEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040048
SWODY1
SPC AC 040045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...WITH PERSISTENT ERN
TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING...GREAT PLAINS RIDGING MOVING EWD AND
COMPRESSING IN WAVELENGTH...AND HEIGHT FALLS PREVALENT ACROSS LARGE
MAJORITY OF WRN CONUS AS NERN PACIFIC SYNOPTIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
SRN PORTION OF STG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG ORE COAST...IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND
NEAR END OF PERIOD...WHILE ASSORTMENT OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
PRECEDE THIS FEATURE ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN W AND GREAT BASIN REGION.
AS WRN TROUGHING SPREADS EWD...STRENGTHENING OF CROSS-TOPOGRAPHIC
FLOW COMPONENT OVER ROCKIES WILL FORTIFY LEE TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND
PORTIONS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.

AT SFC...BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH
LEE TROUGH IN SERN CO...SEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
OK...N-CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL LA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NWD
SLOWLY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD

...OZARKS REGION TO SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING...DIURNALLY FORCED...AND RATHER DISORGANIZED PULSE/MULTICELL
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH
AID FROM OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND ELEVATED WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL.
HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
AMIDST DIABATICALLY STRENGTHENED SBCINH...WEAK SHEAR...AND LACK OF
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL FOCI. SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY --
ALREADY QUITE MRGL -- WILL BECOME SMALLER WITH TIME AND
PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY ARE BEING DROPPED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS FCST TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN GULF COAST
REGION...MORE INDIRECT TRAJECTORIES ACROSS NERN MEX WILL SUPPLY
MOISTURE FOR ADVECTION NEWD FROM TX TOWARD OZARKS IN NARROW PLUME
EMBEDDED IN STG WAA. MEANWHILE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST
ALOFT RELATED TO ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z...NE OF SFC
WARM FRONT...FROM PORTIONS ERN OK INTO OZARKS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND 10Z AS
PARCELS WITH PROGRESSIVELY GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ARE
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN OK BY 08Z. ALTHOUGH UPPER
FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ACTIVITY MAY REACH SWRN EDGE OF 30-35
KT 500 MB WNWLY FLOW E OF MID-UPPER RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-45 KT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SPORADIC HAIL FROM
STRONGEST TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 032000
SWODY1
SPC AC 031957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND GOES SOUNDER/GPS IPW DATA SHOW
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS OF 18Z...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM THE TX PNHDL ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD TONIGHT
OWING TO CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD S OF
BWD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S. RUC OBJECTIVE PLAN
VIEW FIELDS AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS OVER CNTRL
INTO N-CNTRL TX HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J PER KG/ WITH A DECREASING CAP. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV/VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NERN TX IS MOVING AWAY
FROM REGION...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM
FRONT AND WEAK DRYLINE/TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT A NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS TX/OK
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER MOISTENING ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...AND
BENEATH EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN
THIS REGIME AFTER 04/06Z OVER NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...A
FEW OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 10/03/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031704
SWODY2
SPC AC 031703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS STRONG
ERN PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAKER LEAD IMPULSES WILL
ROTATE NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...UPSTREAM FROM
MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...

PER LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS
MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER NERN OK ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG ERN
EDGE OF EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. A FEW OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LLJ.

...MIDWEST...

A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PART OF THE NATION OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS/LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S. THE PRESENCE OF THE EML/CAP
AND LOCATION OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/
WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG NOSE
OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. HERE...MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF MODERATE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL.

...GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY AND THE SRN ROCKIES...

CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WHILE A FEW OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 10/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031624
SWODY1
SPC AC 031621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INLAND FROM THE ERN PAC TO NRN
CA/ORE/WA THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD REGION OF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL INDUCE INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
/ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/. THE MOST FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WHERE THE LLJ IMPINGES ON A
RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NE STATES...INVOF NE OK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA...WHERE RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS AFTER 06Z.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/03/2008

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KGSP [031513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 031513
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE GRANITE FALLS 35.78N 81.41W
09/30/2008 CALDWELL NC UTILITY COMPANY

TREES ON POWER LINES HWY 52 AT EAST ROWAN HIGH SCHOOL.

0830 PM HAIL 2 SSE GRANITE FALLS 35.78N 81.41W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH CALDWELL NC UTILITY COMPANY


&&

$$

TBENTHAL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE WRN STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER NWRN
TX/WRN-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN
MO/NWRN AR AFTER 09Z ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS BY 12Z ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCAPE
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
OVERALL WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE
OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...WESTERN STATES...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SETTLING OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INVOF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON AHEAD OF
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE PAC NW.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2008

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KMFR [031203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 031203
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
503 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
10/03/2008 M1.20 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 5 AM PDT


&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030845
SWOD48
SPC AC 030844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LEAD IMPULSE WILL LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WHILE A SECONDARY
IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL
TX. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS ALONG SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF N CNTRL TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

BEYOND DAY 4...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE NRN
STREAM. WHILE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH DAY 6
FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A HIGHER END OUTLOOK AREA.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030733
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO NM
AND WRN TX DURING THE DAY. LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
ERN CO OR WRN KS WITHIN CYCLONIC UPPER JET EXIT REGION. A LEE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
TX...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.


...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS ALONG A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER THE MOIST AXIS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUDS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BEGIN FAIRLY EARLY OVER
WRN TX AS LIFT WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR. THE EXTENT AND EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY AND COULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS WELL AS OVERALL
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND INTENSIFY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF LEE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING BULK
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS
OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THEY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030558
SWODY2
SPC AC 030556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
SHIFTING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL EJECT NE
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHILE STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A LEE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.


...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

ELY TRAJECTORIES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG
SLY GRADIENT FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH WILL ADVECT AXIS OF MODIFIED CP
AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
BENEATH EML PLUME. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER RIDGING WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
FROM PARTS OF ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

...GREAT BASIN AREA...

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEWD DEVELOPING UPPER
JET WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHERE
HEATING DOES OCCUR A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030457
SWODY1
SPC AC 030454

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY STAGES OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION FCST THROUGH
PERIOD. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY INVOF 45N139W -- MAY EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW BEFORE MOVING
INLAND BC/WA COASTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER END OF PERIOD.
LONG-FETCH 110-150 KT JET...ON BACK SIDE OF ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING...WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON PACIFIC
COAST LATE IN PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FCST ACROSS CONUS FROM ROCKIES WWD...ALONG WITH GEN COOLING ALOFT
WITH TIME. AS FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS ROCKIES...EXPECT MORE
VIGOROUS LEE TROUGHING AND LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS
STATES. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER NERN ONT
AND WRN QUE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
LABRADOR...WEAKENING UPPER JET SOMEWHAT ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS FCST OVER HIGH PLAINS FROM MT-NM.
CORRIDOR OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS FCST FROM S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX AND SRN OK ESEWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION.
QUASISTATIONARY/WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
FL...SUPPORTING AT LEAST MRGL POTENTIAL FOR GEN THUNDER IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE SEA/LAND
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

...CENTRAL TX TO OZARKS...
THIS AREA REPRESENTS SPATIAL OVERLAP OF TWO TEMPORALLY DISTINCT
REGIMES...
1. HIGHLY CONDITIONAL/DIURNAL TSTM POTENTIAL INVOF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX AND PERHAPS SRN OK. OPERATIONAL
NAM -- TYPICALLY MOST AGGRESSIVE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH
EARLY-STAGE MOISTURE RETURN -- FCSTS DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDER INVOF
CENTRAL/NRN TX WARM FRONT. SO ARE A FEW SREF MEMBERS.
HOWEVER...STG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERHEAD...AND ASSOCIATED
CAPPING...MAY PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALTOGETHER...WHICH IS
INDICATED BY OTHER SREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL. MODIFIED
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY WEAK CINH DURING BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON
TIME WINDOW WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMEST AND BEST MIXED.
2. NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED TSTM RISK FROM ERN OK INTO OZARKS...WHICH
APPEARS MORE CERTAIN ATTM. POTENTIAL FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT OF PARCELS
TO LFC WILL INCREASE AS ASSOCIATED TRAJECTORIES PROGRESSIVELY
MOISTEN OVERNIGHT...INVOF NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ. STG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT IS FCST IN WAA REGIME...BUT NOT NECESSARILY THROUGH DEPTH
COVERING EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASE THROUGH MOST OF BUOYANT
LAYER...BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION
APPEARS TOO WEAK ATTM TO DRAW SVR PROBABILITIES AOA 5-PERCENT.

...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERY BROAD SWATH OF WRN
CONUS FROM SRN ROCKIES TO NRN ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC
NW. GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED AS
HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN OVERCOMES WEAK CINH...BENEATH FAVORABLY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING.
FRAGMENTED AREAS OF MLCAPES 100-400 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STG SFC
COOLING OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER SUNSET WILL REMOVE SFC-BASED
THUNDER THREAT QUICKLY...HOWEVER POCKETS OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SPORADIC NOCTURNAL THUNDER WITH MUCAPES
AOB 100 J/KG.

..EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2008

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