SWODY1
SPC AC 031957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND GOES SOUNDER/GPS IPW DATA SHOW
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS OF 18Z...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM THE TX PNHDL ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD TONIGHT
OWING TO CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD S OF
BWD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S. RUC OBJECTIVE PLAN
VIEW FIELDS AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS OVER CNTRL
INTO N-CNTRL TX HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J PER KG/ WITH A DECREASING CAP. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV/VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NERN TX IS MOVING AWAY
FROM REGION...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM
FRONT AND WEAK DRYLINE/TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT A NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS TX/OK
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER MOISTENING ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...AND
BENEATH EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN
THIS REGIME AFTER 04/06Z OVER NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...A
FEW OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.
..MEAD.. 10/03/2008
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