SWODY1
SPC AC 040045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...WITH PERSISTENT ERN
TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING...GREAT PLAINS RIDGING MOVING EWD AND
COMPRESSING IN WAVELENGTH...AND HEIGHT FALLS PREVALENT ACROSS LARGE
MAJORITY OF WRN CONUS AS NERN PACIFIC SYNOPTIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
SRN PORTION OF STG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG ORE COAST...IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND
NEAR END OF PERIOD...WHILE ASSORTMENT OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
PRECEDE THIS FEATURE ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN W AND GREAT BASIN REGION.
AS WRN TROUGHING SPREADS EWD...STRENGTHENING OF CROSS-TOPOGRAPHIC
FLOW COMPONENT OVER ROCKIES WILL FORTIFY LEE TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND
PORTIONS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.
AT SFC...BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH
LEE TROUGH IN SERN CO...SEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
OK...N-CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL LA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NWD
SLOWLY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD
...OZARKS REGION TO SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING...DIURNALLY FORCED...AND RATHER DISORGANIZED PULSE/MULTICELL
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH
AID FROM OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND ELEVATED WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL.
HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
AMIDST DIABATICALLY STRENGTHENED SBCINH...WEAK SHEAR...AND LACK OF
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL FOCI. SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY --
ALREADY QUITE MRGL -- WILL BECOME SMALLER WITH TIME AND
PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY ARE BEING DROPPED.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS FCST TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN GULF COAST
REGION...MORE INDIRECT TRAJECTORIES ACROSS NERN MEX WILL SUPPLY
MOISTURE FOR ADVECTION NEWD FROM TX TOWARD OZARKS IN NARROW PLUME
EMBEDDED IN STG WAA. MEANWHILE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST
ALOFT RELATED TO ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z...NE OF SFC
WARM FRONT...FROM PORTIONS ERN OK INTO OZARKS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND 10Z AS
PARCELS WITH PROGRESSIVELY GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ARE
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN OK BY 08Z. ALTHOUGH UPPER
FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ACTIVITY MAY REACH SWRN EDGE OF 30-35
KT 500 MB WNWLY FLOW E OF MID-UPPER RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-45 KT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SPORADIC HAIL FROM
STRONGEST TSTMS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment