WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 910

WWUS20 KWNS 020103
SEL0
SPC WW 020103
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-020100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 910 ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020054
SWODY1
SPC AC 020051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS DOMINATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN W AND TROUGHING IN E...AND TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ERN GREAT LAKES -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH
BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT
23Z FROM CT SWWD ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS TO NC COSTAL SOUNDS...THEN
SWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN GA -- SHOULD MOVE WELL OFFSHORE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TIDEWATER AREAS...TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.

...COASTAL NC/VA...
TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE OUTER BANKS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...POSTFRONTAL
CAA AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING...THEREBY CONCLUDING SVR THREAT ACROSS
REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS STILL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WHERE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT SUPERIMPOSES WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
THETAE AT OR ABOVE SFC TO YIELD WEAK CAPE. THUNDER POTENTIAL
GENERALLY WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES FROM
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER CAA THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.

...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS BROAD SWATH
OF ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...BECAUSE
OF COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND RAPID
DIABATIC SFC COOLING OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2008

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KLWX [020025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KLWX 020025
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
825 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 1 S BROAD RUN 38.81N 77.71W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH FAUQUIER VA PUBLIC

A LOT OF HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN

0655 PM HAIL 1 S BROAD RUN 38.81N 77.71W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH FAUQUIER VA PUBLIC

A SECOND REPORT OF HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE SOUTH OF BROAD
RUN...TIME WAS ESTIMATED.

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 E60.00 MPH PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN DOMINION VALLEY DRIVE AREA.
BLINDING WIND DRIVEN RAIN AND HAIL.

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

3 INCH LIMB DOWN ON CRANSWICK COURT...AND OTHER TREE
DAMAGE AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 TO
70 MPH.

0700 PM HAIL 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BIGGER MIXED IN AMONG
SMALLER STONES...REPORTED ON CRANSWICK COURT.

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT HARMONY 38.70N 76.60W
09/30/2008 CALVERT MD COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE DOWN ON ROAD AROUND CHANEYVILLE. HAIL REPORTED ALSO
AROUND NORTH BEACH...OWINGS AND CHESAPEAKE BEACH. SIZE
UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [020021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 020021
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
820 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

3 INCH LIMB DOWN ON CRANSWICK COURT...AND OTHER TREE
DAMAGE AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 TO
70 MPH.

0700 PM HAIL 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BIGGER MIXED IN AMONG
SMALLER STONES...REPORTED ON CRANSWICK COURT.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [012332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 012332
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
732 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 1 S BROAD RUN 38.81N 77.71W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH FAUQUIER VA PUBLIC

A SECOND REPORT OF HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE SOUTH OF BROAD
RUN...TIME WAS ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [012329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 012329
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
729 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 1 S BROAD RUN 38.81N 77.71W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH FAUQUIER VA PUBLIC

A LOT OF HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [012313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 012313
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW HAYMARKET 38.83N 77.66W
09/30/2008 E60 MPH PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN DOMINION VALLEY DRIVE AREA.
BLINDING WIND DRIVEN RAIN AND HAIL.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2306

ACUS11 KWNS 012307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012306
NCZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...

VALID 012306Z - 020100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES -- THOUGH NOW LIMITED PRIMARILY TO COASTAL
PARTS OF NC.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO EXIT THE NC COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONG STORMS
PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT NOW IMPINGING UPON
THE COAST...EXISTING INLAND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO WANE.

WHILE WW 910 IS SCHEDULED FOR EXPIRATION AT 02/01Z...WATCH MAY BE
CANCELLED PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS THE THREAT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC.

..GOSS.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

36077560 36017495 35187563 33967777 34497796 35577647

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KMHX [012243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 012243
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL OLD FORD 35.64N 77.07W
10/01/2008 E1.00 INCH BEAUFORT NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

CQD

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KMHX [012212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 012212
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
612 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 PM WATER SPOUT 3 SW KITTY HAWK 36.04N 75.76W
10/01/2008 AMZ130 NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC REPORTED WATER SPOUT DISSIPATED AS IT APPROACHED
KITTY HAWK FROM ALBEMARLE SOUND. RELAYED BY DARE 911.

&&

$$

JBM

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KJAX [011831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 011831
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N ST. SIMONS 31.26N 81.37W
09/30/2008 GLYNN GA PUBLIC

FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN OFF OF LAWRENCE ROAD. TIME OF
EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KMHX [011826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 011826
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0221 PM HAIL 3 SW KINSTON 35.24N 77.63W
10/01/2008 E0.75 INCH LENOIR NC PUBLIC

PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON TYREE ROAD.

&&

$$

BCULLEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2304

ACUS11 KWNS 011825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011824
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-012000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011824Z - 012000Z

TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CAPABLE OF MAINLY AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ORIENTED N-S ALONG THE NY/VT STATE LINE. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
OVER PARTS OF SRN VT AND WRN MA. A THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS
NWD FROM COASTAL CT TO NEAR PSF.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING HAS COMMENCED THE PAST FEW HRS BEHIND CONVECTION NOW MOVING
E OF BOS. MODIFIED 12Z ALB RAOB SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY /500
J/KG SBCAPE/ HAS DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE. NONETHELESS...COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT 500MB/...WILL IN TURN
SUPPORT HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY THE STRONGER DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

41997352 42157371 43527356 43807340 43877269 43597198
42787211 42327230 42037269

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 910

WWUS20 KWNS 011741
SEL0
SPC WW 011741
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-020100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT CENTRAL VA/NC THAT IS MOVING
SLOWLY EWD. WITH APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND MLCAPES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS
FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...HALES

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KGSP [011634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KGSP 011634
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1234 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL 4 W BOILING SPRINGS NC 35.25N 81.74W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH CLEVELAND NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HAIL WEST OF BOILINGS SPRINGS, ANOTHER REPORT NORTH OF
TOWN COVERING THE GROUND BUT SIZE UKNOWN.

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011632
SWODY2
SPC AC 011631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR MOIST DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REPETITIVE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
INTO THE LOWER 48 WILL ENSURE A PRIMARILY DRY OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME.
EVEN SO...A FEW AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...NAMELY PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES...CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE NWRN U.S.

COOLING PROFILES WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY THE
NRN LAKES. A FEW DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

STRONG HEATING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND NM.
DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION...HIGH BASED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WITHIN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER REGION THAT MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.
AGAIN...THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY AND ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND INEFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO FORCE MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE SRN FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..DARROW.. 10/01/2008

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KGSP [011630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 011630
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 7 SW ROCK HILL 34.87N 81.12W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH YORK SC PUBLIC

HAIL ON HWY 72 SW OF ROCK HILL-HIGH COTTON CONVENIENCE
STORE EMPLOYEE.

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2303

ACUS11 KWNS 011628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011628
NCZ000-VAZ000-011900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E NC AND SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011628Z - 011900Z

H5 CHART AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A HEALTHY JET STREAK
/MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS 90 METERS AT KILN/ DIGGING INTO THE LWR OH/TN
VLYS AT LATE MORNING ALONG THE BASE OF THE GRTLKS UPR TROUGH. THE
IMPULSE WILL SPREAD ESE INTO VA AND NC BY MID-AFTN.

READJUSTMENTS OF THE MASS FIELDS WERE OCCURRING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. OLD FRONT THAT SETTLED SWD INTO NC LAST
NIGHT HAS DISSOLVED WITH REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER W IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE 15Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB LOW INVOF KFAY WITH A N-S
ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E SC INTO E VA. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE SEWD IN THE KRDU METRO AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF WRN NC WITH THE APCH OF THE UPR IMPULSE.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...VSBL SATL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MARKED BY DISSOLVING STRATUS
FIELD...SURGING NWD INTO ECNTRL NC ATTM. MID-UPR 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AND/OR TRANSPORTED NWD TOWARD EXTREME SE
VA INTO THIS AFTN. THOUGH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 6 C PER KM...SOME STEEPENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN OWING TO THE
APCH OF COOLER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF THE
SFC. AFTN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY OVER ERN NC AND
1000-1500 J/KG OVER EXTREME SE VA.

TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTN. FIRST STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 18Z ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS EC/NERN NC
AND EXTREME SE VA. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP 18-21Z FARTHER S AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW/FRONT FROM SE NC NEWD INTO ECNTRL NC/OUTER BANKS.

ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS OF WSW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL BANDS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. THOUGH WEAK LOW-LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST...THREAT FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY VCNTY THE SFC LOW TRACK
FROM SCNTRL-ECNTRL NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..RACY.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

33837835 34717935 36457775 37147681 37107560 35187535

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KGSP [011626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 011626
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL 5 W BOILING SPRINGS NC 35.25N 81.76W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH RUTHERFORD NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HAIL WEST OF BOILINGS SPRINGS, ANOTHER REPORT NORTH OF
TOWN COVERING THE GROUND BUT SIZE UKNOWN.

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011609
SWODY1
SPC AC 011607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC TO SRN DELMARVA
PENINSULA...

...ERN NC AND SRN DELMARVA...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES EWD
FROM OH VALLEY ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 06Z. A
RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SWWD THRU
NC PIEDMONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT MORE MOIST WITH EWD EXTENT TO THE COAST
WHERE MID 60S TDS PREVAIL. WHILE 500MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY
COOL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM. HOWEVER AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO 80F...THE COMBINATION OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...40-50KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF FRONT/LEE TROUGH FOR SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY COASTAL COUNTIES NC AND SERN VA. WHILE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

REF SWOMCD #2302

FAVORABLE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE IN PLACE ATTM OVER RI/SERN
MA FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AM. SUPERCELL
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ERN MA/RI WHERE SBCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AREA WILL BE
HAIL...BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINATION OF STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO
MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
VT/NH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/01/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2302

ACUS11 KWNS 011444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011443
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-011545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN RHODE ISLAND / ERN MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011443Z - 011545Z

LOCALIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

RECENT LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MINI SUPERCELL OVER PROVIDENCE
CO. RHODE ISLAND MOVING TO THE NE. A STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILE PER
12Z AREA RAOBS SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION TO BE POSSIBLE.
LOWER 60 DEWPTS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY OFFSET MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO.

..SMITH.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

41787195 42237140 42487101 42397053 42107055 41817079
41537127 41497164 41577180

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KRAH [011443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 011443
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1043 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 4 SSW LEXINGTON 35.76N 80.28W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH DAVIDSON NC PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KGSP [011425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 011425
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL 3 ESE UNION GROVE 36.01N 80.81W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH IREDELL NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PENNY SIZE HAIL BETWEEN UNION GROVE AND HARMONY.

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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KRNK [011423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 011423
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1023 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 PM HAIL 5 ESE MONROETON 36.26N 79.64W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ROCKINGHAM NC PUBLIC

HAIL FELL AT CANDY CREEK ROAD.

&&

$$

HYSELL

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KRAH [011410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 011410
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL 3 ESE NEWSOM 35.52N 80.13W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH DAVIDSON NC PUBLIC

1009 PM HAIL 2 NE GORDONTOWN 35.77N 80.10W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH DAVIDSON NC PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AND LASTED 5 MINUTES.

1009 PM HAIL 2 N ALTAMAHAW 36.21N 79.50W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ALAMANCE NC POST OFFICE

1035 PM HAIL 5 WSW BURLINGTON 36.06N 79.53W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ALAMANCE NC PUBLIC

1105 PM HAIL 8 W ASHEBORO 35.70N 79.96W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH RANDOLPH NC PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

ORROCK

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KRNK [011259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 011259
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
857 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE MADISON 36.37N 79.95W
09/30/2008 ROCKINGHAM NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ALONG ANGEL ROAD.

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG ELLISBORO 36.33N 79.98W
09/30/2008 ROCKINGHAM NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN ELLISBORO.

&&

$$

JH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011255
SWODY1
SPC AC 011252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. THE ERN SYSTEM LIKELY WILL REACH MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE LATE THIS EVE AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY TURNS E TOWARD THE VA/NC CST.

AT THE SFC...TAIL END OF LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE
THAT CROSSED THE MID ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING ATTM
OVER ERN NC. THE BOUNDARY...AND LEE TROUGH...SHOULD REDEVELOP W
INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SE VA LATER TODAY AS OH VLY
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES EWD.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN DELMARVA...
SFC...GPS...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. OBSERVED WINDS SUGGEST THAT AFOREMENTIONED WWD
REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC FRONT ALREADY MAY BE OCCURRING OVER CNTRL NC.

COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/ASCENT WITH
APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...AND OPTIMALLY-TIMED SFC HEATING WILL
CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS OVER ERN
NC AND SE VA LATER TODAY.

STORMS SHOULD FORM PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LEE
TROUGH THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY FORM ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE CST. WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LIKELY BENEATH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ...WITH 1500 TO
PERHAPS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. AT THE SAME TIME...50+ KT WSWLY MID LVL
FLOW WILL YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/ SUSTAINED MULTICELL
BANDS. MODEST DEGREE OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT FURTHER SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPLITTING CELLS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. THE SVR THREAT
SHOULD END AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY TONIGHT.

...NEW ENG...
NRN PART OF LEAD COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENE FROM FAR
ERN NY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENG TODAY. CLOUDS AND EXISTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. BUT COMBINATION
OF WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/...COOL MID
LVL TEMPERATURES...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE/DEEPENING UPR TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF LOW-TOPPED AFTN/EVE STORMS. HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/01/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010849
SWOD48
SPC AC 010848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE STRENGTH AND MANNER IN WHICH THIS
OCCURS HAS BEEN A POINT OF VARIABILITY...AND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK EVOLVING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM...OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

THE QUALITY OF THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...IS STILL IN QUESTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONLY A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS INITIAL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OUT
INTO THE PLAINS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
OR STABILIZING INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN
PACIFIC...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTBREAK LATE THIS
WEEKEND APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

THEREAFTER...THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS
STILL UNCLEAR...DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE LARGE-SCALE
FLOW.

..KERR.. 10/01/2008

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KAKQ [010833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 010833
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 AM TSTM WND GST 11 ENE OCEAN VIEW 37.04N 76.08W
10/01/2008 E46.00 MPH ANZ632 VA BUOY

40 KT...46 MPH...WIND GUST AT WEATHERFLOW BUOY AT 3RD
ISLAND...X205.

&&

$$

05

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KAKQ [010831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 010831
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 AM TSTM WND GST 11 ENE OCEAN VIEW 37.04N 76.08W
10/01/2008 E40 MPH ANZ632 VA BUOY

40 KT WIND GUST AT WEATHERFLOW BUOY AT 3RD ISLAND...X205.

&&

$$

05

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2301

ACUS11 KWNS 010754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010754
NCZ000-VAZ000-010930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010754Z - 010930Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SERN
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN ECNTRL NC ARE LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE WHERE WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SWWD FROM ECNTRL VA ACROSS WRN NC WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE FRONT EWD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD INTO THIS MOIST AIRMASS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY ALSO HAVE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

34337809 34917881 35407876 35777833 36347723 36967670
37157623 36977596 36487568 35927551 35227574 34667652

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2301

ACUS11 KWNS 010747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010746
010915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010746Z - 010915Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SERN
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN ECNTRL NC ARE LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE WHERE WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SWWD FROM ECNTRL VA ACROSS WRN NC WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE FRONT EWD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD INTO THIS MOIST AIRMASS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY ALSO HAVE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 10/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010721
SWODY3
SPC AC 010719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH AN AMPLIFYING IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE STRONG GENERALLY
ZONAL PACIFIC JET MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CANADA... BUT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN
THE EASTERN TROUGHS AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST ...UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER.

THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND...WITH SREF/MREF GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT A FRONTAL ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW PLUME OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE
U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..KERR.. 10/01/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010555
SWODY1
SPC AC 010553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NC AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG/OFF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FARTHER WEST...THE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
/CURRENTLY NEAR 135W/ GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA/ADJACENT MD SHORE...
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
/55-70 KT AT 500 MB/...WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE LIKLIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS COASTAL NC AND PERHAPS THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
VA/COASTAL SC. WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AMPLE HEATING BENEATH
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT
MODERATELY STRONG PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VEERING WITH
40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND
WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.

...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED EARLY
DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK
SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG SBCAPE OR LESS/ WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 10/01/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010525
SWODY2
SPC AC 010523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY
COMMENCE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG ZONAL
MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAKENING OF THE
LARGE-SCALE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH...NOW OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...LIFT INLAND ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NORTHWESTERN
STATES. WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....A BROAD DEEP CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES BY 12Z FRIDAY. BUT...WEAK TROUGHING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THIS REGIME PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN IMPEDED. COUPLED WITH ONLY MODEST POST-FRONTAL
MOISTENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
ROTATING AROUND A COLD CORE LOW...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW -30C...ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO... PERHAPS
INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

...FLORIDA...
SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BE MOST PROBABLE THAT A SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BUT...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN
ASSOCIATED NARROW TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES...SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING NEAR A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW CENTER MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...EVEN WITH NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF A LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS...THE RISK OF STORMS PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER DARK.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
POST-FRONTAL MOISTENING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON...
PERHAPS NORTHEAST OREGON...INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN IDAHO LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...PRE-FRONTAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE
AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING...ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA.

..KERR.. 10/01/2008

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