SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010746
010915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010746Z - 010915Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SERN
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN ECNTRL NC ARE LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE WHERE WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SWWD FROM ECNTRL VA ACROSS WRN NC WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE FRONT EWD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD INTO THIS MOIST AIRMASS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY ALSO HAVE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
..BROYLES.. 10/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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