SWODY3
SPC AC 010719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH AN AMPLIFYING IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE STRONG GENERALLY
ZONAL PACIFIC JET MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CANADA... BUT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN
THE EASTERN TROUGHS AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST ...UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND...WITH SREF/MREF GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT A FRONTAL ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW PLUME OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE
U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..KERR.. 10/01/2008
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