SWODY1
SPC AC 010553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NC AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST VA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG/OFF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FARTHER WEST...THE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
/CURRENTLY NEAR 135W/ GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA/ADJACENT MD SHORE...
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
/55-70 KT AT 500 MB/...WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE LIKLIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS COASTAL NC AND PERHAPS THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
VA/COASTAL SC. WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AMPLE HEATING BENEATH
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT
MODERATELY STRONG PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VEERING WITH
40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND
WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED EARLY
DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK
SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG SBCAPE OR LESS/ WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 10/01/2008
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