DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160048
SWODY1
SPC AC 160046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

INTENSE SURFACE LOW JUST E OF THE TIDEWATER REGION WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NWD TO NEAR LONG ISLAND BY 16/12Z.
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN NC AS OF 0030Z INVOF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE PROGRESSING
SEWD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE. ANY THREAT OF HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY 02Z.

POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITHIN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME OCCURRING TO THE N AND
NW OF DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW.

..INTERMOUNTAIN W...

POCKET OF RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -24 C AT 500
MB/ ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...NAMELY OVER PORTIONS OF NV/UT IN EXIT
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
FROM TROUGH AXIS OVER AZ. HERE...LOCALLY STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN COLOCATED WITH THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES.

.MEAD.. 04/16/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 149

WWUS20 KWNS 160003
SEL9
SPC WW 160003
NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149 ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 150

WWUS20 KWNS 160003
SEL0
SPC WW 160003
NCZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 148

WWUS20 KWNS 152104
SEL8
SPC WW 152103
FLZ000-CWZ000-152100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148 ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0509

ACUS11 KWNS 152012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152012
VAZ000-NCZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC...SERN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...150...

VALID 152012Z - 152215Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES FOR WWS 149/150. GREATEST TORNADIC SUPERCELL
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NEWD OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA...IN ADVANCE OF
DEEPENING/984 MB SFC LOW AND AMIDST PRONOUNCED FIELD OF ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE FALLS. AT 20Z THIS LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR RWI CLOSE TO
I-95. ISALLOBARIC FORCING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AS
5-7 MB/2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN NC/VA BORDER AREA
SHIFT NEWD TOWARD SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WILL ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS
OPTIMALLY ACROSS SERN VA/NERN NC COASTAL PLAIN AND TIDEWATER
REGION...YIELDING EXTREME 0-1 KM SRH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS NOT UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL SURGE
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ...AND SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH ANY
BOWING/LEWP FORMATIONS IN LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL. FARTHER SW OVER
E-CENTRAL/SERN NC...SFC WINDS ARE VEERING BEHIND STRONGEST PRESSURE
FALLS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR
MODES...BUT STILL WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.

COLD FRONTAL SURGE FOLLOWS BEHIND CYCLONE ACROSS N-CENTRAL NC...WITH
ASSOCIATED FINE LINE WELL DEFINED ON REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. TSTMS
MOVING ATOP COLD FRONTAL SURGE IN NRN NC WILL MOVE ATOP 50S TO LOW
60S F SFC TEMPS AND LOSE SFC-BASED INFLOW RAPIDLY...BUT STILL MAY BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL BEFORE THEY WEAKEN.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

34467745 34847846 35637960 35608034 35208077 35398110
35808054 36297965 36567747 37227718 37527624 37937533
37177582 36927597 36237576 35647544 35227553 35147584
34597656 34687666 34637710

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151956
SWODY1
SPC AC 151954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NC AND SOUTHEAST VA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

..SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AS IT ROTATES ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERIES OF DEEPENING
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ENEWD INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF
THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER DE...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER
DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NNEWD REACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY.
FARTHER S...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM MUCH OF SC AND
GA...WITH THE SRN PORTION EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH SRN FL FROM VRB TO
NEAR APF. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE S OF THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING.

..NC/SOUTHEAST VA...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
TSTMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FAR NERN NC AND OUTER BANKS.
MEANWHILE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NC INTO SERN VA WITHIN VICINITY OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THESE
PARTS OF SE VA AND NC. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG AND EAST OF TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT AS COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING SRN APPALACHIANS TROUGH SPREAD EWD.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

..SRN FL...
BROAD ZONE OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AND RESULT IN FURTHER DECREASE IN AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...THE OVERALL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0508

ACUS11 KWNS 151942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151942
FLZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN FL AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...

VALID 151942Z - 152115Z

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER KEYS WHERE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY INDICATED IN REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ZONE
OF HIGHEST THETAE IN PROJECTED INFLOW LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL RISK
WILL DIMINISH DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER REMAINING LAND
AREAS...AS SHADING AND PRECIP BENEATH CLOUD CANOPY REDUCE PRE-STORM
BUOYANCY...AND AS VEERED SFC FLOW LIMITS SHEAR/CONVERGENCE. ONCE
PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION PASSES...WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM
W-E...WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING TOO SOON AFTER INITIAL
TSTM BAND TO PERMIT FURTHER SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

24478191 24708155 24818121 24978108 25208111 25608108
26708049 27178020 26698000 26098008 25448020 24898062
24658125

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 147

WWUS20 KWNS 151904
SEL7
SPC WW 151903
NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-151900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
303 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147 ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 150

WWUS20 KWNS 151850
SEL0
SPC WW 151850
NCZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...

DISCUSSION...RAPID CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND INITIAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NC. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL NC...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RESIDUAL DEWPOINT VALUES NEAR 70F AND
VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0507

ACUS11 KWNS 151841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151840
NCZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...

VALID 151840Z - 151945Z

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS WW AND WILL
CONTINUE PAST SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW LIKELY
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS WRN NC...FROM SC BORDER TO OUTER
BANKS...AND S OF ERN HALF OF NEWER WW 149.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS EVIDENT FROM SW OF ECG TO NEAR OAJ AS OF
1830Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SOUNDS AND OUTER BANKS
REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z. FARTHER SW...MORE
ISOLATED/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONTAL SURGE -- TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY BUOYANT/SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS NC JUST S OF WW 149. SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE LOWS ALONG MAIN SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NC. ONE OF THESE -- NOW ANALYZED
BETWEEN RDU AND VA BORDER -- HAS MOVED NEWD FROM ERN PORTION NC-SC
BORDER AS MESOLOW AND MAY EVOLVE INTO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE --
TAKING THAT ROLE FROM WRN LOW WSW GSO. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC
FORCING IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS BEHIND INITIAL LINE...ACROSS ERN NC. ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW
WILL VEER GRADUALLY AS PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT NWD OVER VA...0-1 KM SRH
AOA 300 J/KG WILL REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL NC FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...ALONG WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE BULKS SHEAR. THIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
ISOLATED SVR HAIL WITH ANY ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

34787960 35547826 35877717 36137575 35667549 35217554
35137588 34707646 34607651 34677668 34617720 34227775
33867797 33897854

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151715
SWODY2
SPC AC 151714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
SRN CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM AZ ON
MONDAY...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE...WITH MODELS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SWRN STATES CLOSED LOW. RECENT COLD FRONT INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO BE DELAYED
FARTHER INLAND TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S SHOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF TX MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
RATHER LOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/EML/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.

THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH BY PEAK HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY FORM FROM SERN CO TO FAR ERN NM/TX
BORDER REGION. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
COVERAGE. THUS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM S THROUGH NW TX AND WRN OK MONDAY NIGHT
MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS W/NW TX INTO WRN OK...
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TSTMS PRODUCING SOME HAIL
THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0506

ACUS11 KWNS 151703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151703
FLZ000-151900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL...FL KEYS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...

VALID 151703Z - 151900Z

WW 148 SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES...ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 1645Z NEAR XMR-FMY LINE. ASSOCIATED BAND
OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH AIR MASS
THAT WAS STRONGLY HEATED BEFORE SOME SHADING FROM ANVIL CANOPY. SFC
TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S ALONG E COAST -- COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S -- YIELD MLCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VWP DATA AND RUC
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOW IN
PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PRE-STORM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH NWD
EXTENT BENEATH MORE INTENSE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND RANGES FROM
AROUND 30-35 KT AT MIA TO 50-60 KT NEAR XMR. TORNADO REPORTED AT
15Z N POLK COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS AND ANY
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SRN PORTION OF LINE ALSO WILL
AFFECT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOLLOWED 1-2
HOURS THEREAFTER BY MARQUESAS KEYS AND EYW REGION.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

26568220 27358142 28108056 26898004 25658014 25018046
24668123 24538214 24648296 24678248 24788151 24968108
25048100 25148110 25288116 25378116 25678129 25898162
25828171 26418191

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505

ACUS11 KWNS 151651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151651
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-152245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...VT/NH/NWRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 151651Z - 152245Z

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH 1-2 IN/HR FALL RATES POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE S.
MEAN THICKNESS VALUES WILL INCREASE AND WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO
CHANGE TO RAIN OVER ERN NY INTO MA...WHILE AREAS OF NRN NY/VT/NH
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MD AREA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW/DENDRITE PRODUCTION ALOFT WHICH WILL
FALL THROUGH NEAR FREEZING SATURATED THERMAL LAYER RESULTING IN
HEAVY SNOW. HRLY QPF VALUES UPSTREAM INDICATE 0.10 - 0.20 LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ALREADY OCCURRING.

.JEWELL.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42517192 42337243 42347356 42477469 42727547 42887589
43527582 44357586 44967506 44967437 45047301 44657236
44077179 43347126 43077138

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 149

WWUS20 KWNS 151641
SEL9
SPC WW 151641
NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF NORFOLK
VIRGINIA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEW STORMS
INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN NC. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA.
PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DUE TO STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY
TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INCREASING DEWPOINT VALUES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

..HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504

ACUS11 KWNS 151619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151619
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-151745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN NC...N-CENTRAL SC...S-CENTRAL VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151619Z - 151745Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER DISCUSSION AREA AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES BENEATH 120-140 KT UPPER JET MAX.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW INVOF NC/VA BORDER -- NE GSO.
THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN VA. TRAILING SEGMENTED COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FIRST FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS HKY-AVL AREAS AS OF 16Z...THEN
SWD FROM VICINITY HKY ACROSS SERN GA. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --
DEMARCATING SRN PORTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS -- IS EVIDENT FROM
NEAR GSO EWD. AIR MASS E OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES AND S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SFC DIABATIC
HEATING...LEADING TO GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN VIS
IMAGERY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FURTHER...SFC DEW POINTS LOW 60S OVER WRN PORTION OF AREA...TRENDING
TO MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS CENTRAL NC -- CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL/WRN NC -- IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WW 147 -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35418265 35758152 36248079 37017911 36907822 36367831
35487907 34598027 34468117 35178160 35258243

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151606
SWODY1
SPC AC 151603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...AND OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...

..EASTERN NC...
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NC. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A MESOLOW SOUTH OF RDU TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SUPERCELL STORMS AND THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NC. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER
THIS REGION SHOW EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 500-800 M2/S2 AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BOW/LEWP CONFIGURATIONS
WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THIS AREA.

..SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA...
FARTHER WEST...CLEARING SKIES ARE RESULTING IN HEATING AND MIXING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN SC. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
VA. SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF MESOLOW
INDICATE SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER MAINTAIN A
RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE RISK
OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.

..FL...
SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALONG THE LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.HART/JEWELL.. 04/15/2007

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[Tsentry_List] RiverCityWeather.Net - TSentry message --- All Clear ---

===== TSentry™ ALL CLEAR NOTIFICATION ===============
-----------------------------------------------------
Notification issued on Sun Apr 15 10:28:03 2007
------------------------------------------------------

No lightning activity detected in 5 minutes

Total time under alert: 1 h 09 m

For more information on this alert, please visit the links below:

RiverCityWeather.Net Home: http://www.rivercityweather.net
RiverCityWeather.Net Live! Lightning: http://www.rivercityweather.net/lightning.php
RiverCityWeather.Net NexRAD Radar: http://www.rivercityweather.net/sat_rad.php
RiverCityWeather.Net Alerts / Warnings: http://www.rivercityweather.net/local_info.php

===== END OF NOTIFICATION ===========================

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0503

ACUS11 KWNS 151516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151515
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-151715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...

VALID 151515Z - 151715Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES IN REMAINDER WW 147. AREA N OF WW ACROSS SERN
VA AND EXTREME NERN NC MAY NEED ADDITIONAL WW WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.

SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS WW...EACH OF WHICH
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL. WRN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
WELL TO BACK EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD
OF SFC COLD FRONT. RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA
MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NEWD INTO AREAS N OF
WW. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GRADUAL LOWERING WITH TIME
OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASE TO NEAR SFC AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
ADVECTION CONTINUES.

AS OF 14Z...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MAIN SFC LOW INVOF NC/VA STATE
LINE NE GSO...COLD FRONT SWD NEAR CAE...AMG. MESOLOW WAS EVIDENT
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER NC/SC BORDER NE FLO AND ALONG WRN
CONVECTIVE BAND. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WAS EVIDENT JUST
AHEAD OF MESOLOW ACROSS NERN SC AND S-CENTRAL/SERN NC. THIS ZONE OF
PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AND
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN SC
DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...60-70 KT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
OVER REGION. RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE
FAVORABLE...E.G. 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN LATEST LTX/MHX
VWPS AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HODOGRAPHS
CHARACTERIZING INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS...ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK OF TORNADOES.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

32498082 33258033 33518026 35017926 35787873 36467827
36997746 37037628 36917600 36247578 35597545 35217552
35207570 35047608 34567654 34697665 34637706 34387756
34177782 33837797 33907817 33837868 33407913 33147920
32518025

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 146

WWUS20 KWNS 151503
SEL6
SPC WW 151503
GAZ000-CWZ000-151500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146 ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0502

ACUS11 KWNS 151420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151420
SCZ000-GAZ000-151515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SERN GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...

VALID 151420Z - 151515Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER THAT PORTION WW ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND OF
CONVECTION...BUT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E...AND IF
TSTMS MOVE OFFSHORE SOON ENOUGH...CANCELLATION MAY BE APPROPRIATE
BEFORE SCHEDULED 15Z EXPIRATION. AS OF 14Z...PRIMARY BAND OF
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS WAS OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM SAV SSWWD AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BEFORE 15Z. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAA ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA
WILL TERMINATE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

31238103 31368139 32058117 32568099

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[Tsentry_List] RiverCityWeather.Net - TSentry message *** Alert ***

===== TSentry™ THUNDERSTORM ALERT NOTIFICATION ======
-----------------------------------------------------
Alert message issued at Sun Apr 15 09:18:11 2007
-----------------------------------------------------

Warning: Thunderstorm and/or Lightning detected within 31 mi range!

For more information on this alert, please visit the links below:

RiverCityWeather.Net Home: http://www.rivercityweather.net
RiverCityWeather.Net Live! Lightning: http://www.rivercityweather.net/lightning.php
RiverCityWeather.Net NexRAD Radar: http://www.rivercityweather.net/sat_rad.php
RiverCityWeather.Net Alerts / Warnings: http://www.rivercityweather.net/local_info.php

Active warnings:
- CLOSE STORM WARNING

Close alarm range: 31 mi

Expanded info:
TRAC ID H-924
BEARING 206.5 dgr
RANGE 16 mi
STRIKE RATE 3/min
PEAK RATE 6/min
CATEGORY WEAK
TREND NO CHANGE

Short info:
ID:H-924 BNG:207 RNG:16mi CAT:WK SR:3 PR:6 TR:NC

Trigger configuration:
Close alarm mode: NexStorm
Close alarm range: 31 mi
Severe storm alarm: Enabled
Severe stormcell alarm: Enabled

===== END OF NOTIFICATION ===========================

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 148

WWUS20 KWNS 151344
SEL8
SPC WW 151344
FLZ000-CWZ000-152100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 500
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS WITHIN THE LINE...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PARTS OF SOUTH FL WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING
TODAY...WHICH MAY OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MAINTAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

..HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0501

ACUS11 KWNS 151331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151331
FLZ000-151430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151331Z - 151430Z

WW NECESSARY ACROSS LARGE PORTION FL PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF LINE OF
STG-SVR TSTMS NOW CROSSING W-CENTRAL COAST AND N FL.

THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...EXPECT PRE-STORM SFC
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST DIABATIC HEATING...COMBINED WITH SFC DEW
POINTS LOW 70S F...TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER BULK OF SRN/ERN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS MAY SHRINK SLIGHTLY AS SFC WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO NEWD
SHIFTING OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACROSS VA/CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS
ALOFT AND THEIR WLY COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...KEEPING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SVR. EVEN THOUGH
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN QUASI-LINEAR...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS
WILL POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND.
OCCASIONALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY DIMINISH SWD
WITH TIME OVER KEYS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

27518283 29178179 29998129 28858076 28448051 28398059
27888042 26818001 25458017 24798076 24528181 24558219
24618216 24718143 24838094 25038076 25068105 25198116
25388115 25768134 25918164 25828167 26348185 26478198
26398206 26448220 27038243 27378264

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 145

WWUS20 KWNS 151303
SEL5
SPC WW 151303
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-151300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145 ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

GEORGIA
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151233
SWODY1
SPC AC 151231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS
SWD INTO FL...

..SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEWD AND
DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL PIVOT ENEWD FROM MS/AL TO OFF THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TONIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
EWD TO OFF THE NE FL/GA/SC COASTS BY 15-18Z...AND THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING.

..CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NC...AND 68-70 F DEWPOINTS FARTHER S ACROSS ERN SC INTO
THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...AND THE ONLY PROSPECTS FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TODAY
WILL BE ACROSS NC ALONG THE PATH OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH. STILL...A LARGE FRACTION OF THE TOTAL CAPE IS LOCATED BELOW
500 MB PER THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING...AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREME
/EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 600 M2/S2/ OVER ERN NC BY MID-LATE MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A 70 KT LLJ.

THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FROM SE GA INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC...WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NC AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST FROM 18-21Z.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER W IN NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY AS THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES THIS AREA.

..FL PENINSULA TODAY...
A FORCED FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS FL FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT A
FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IN FL WILL BE TEMPERED BY RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY.

.THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 04/15/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 147

WWUS20 KWNS 151210
SEL7
SPC WW 151210
NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-151900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL 300
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ORANGEBURG SOUTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS SC/NC THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD FROM THE PIEDMONT...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EWD ACROSS GA/SC. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND.
INITIALLY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED IN SC...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT EXPECTED BY MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS ERN NC.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

..THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0500

ACUS11 KWNS 151139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151139
NCZ000-SCZ000-151245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 145...

VALID 151139Z - 151245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 145 CONTINUES. A NEW
TORNADO WW LIKELY WILL BE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE CENTER OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE FROM NEAR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC THROUGH THE GREENSBORO
NC AREA BY THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DIFLUENT EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSES THROUGH THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOW ONGOING OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
..LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL BE WEAK AT BEST DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. BUT...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY
COMPENSATE...IN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF CYCLONE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

.KERR.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

33018121 33778083 34658044 35867920 36067785 35887644
35157628 33107918 32428079

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 146

WWUS20 KWNS 150957
SEL6
SPC WW 150957
GAZ000-CWZ000-151500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 600 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA
GEORGIA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WAYCROSS GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 144. WATCH NUMBER 144 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
600 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 145...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL INTO SE GA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

..THOMPSON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150835
SWOD48
SPC AC 150835

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

..DISCUSSION...
LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
PERIOD...IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HINTING THAT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE ROCKIES
AND AFFECT THE PLAINS ON DAY 7 /SAT. APR. 21/. BOTH FORECAST THAT
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/S CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS --
POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

THOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR DAY 8...AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION
-- REMAIN A QUESTION ATTM -- THEREFORE...WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA
FOR DAY 8 ATTM.

.GOSS.. 04/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0499

ACUS11 KWNS 150757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150757
SCZ000-GAZ000-150930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 144...145...

VALID 150757Z - 150930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 144...145...CONTINUES.

RAPID DEEPENING AND EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONE
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS APPEARS UNDERWAY.
AND...INTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS FOLLOWING SUITE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MAXIMIZED
AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SUPERCELL NORTHEAST OF ALBANY...AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO
AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH BY 09-10Z. AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
PROBABLY WILL INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AS IT
ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY DAYBREAK.

.KERR.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32578338 33768192 33988141 34148052 33767948 32797948
31958086 31608153 30698416 30878458

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0498

ACUS11 KWNS 150733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150733
NCZ000-SCZ000-150900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL SC INTO WRN/CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150733Z - 150900Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW NORTH OF WW 145.

RAPID 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ONGOING ALONG/NORTH OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CENTER OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF CHARLOTTE NC BY THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE PIEDMONT
OF THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...THE EVOLUTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK ...WITHIN AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY
MEAN FLOW REGIME TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...POSING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

.KERR.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

33728082 33798136 34758101 35278069 35868053 36397985
36397805 34887861

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150719
SWODY3
SPC AC 150718

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PAC NW ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A FEW
VIGOUROUS STORMS COULD DEVELOP INVOF EITHER/BOTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES.

..TX...
COLD AIR AT H5 /-18 TO -22 C/ IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN AND
INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE...DEPICTING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR GGG /LONGVIEW TX/
AT 18/00Z...WHILE THE NAM AT THIS TIME INDICATES THE CENTER CLOSER
TO ABI /ABILENE TX/.

IN ANY CASE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT ABOVE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...A FEW
STRONGER/LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL MAY
EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..THE NWRN CONUS...
AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY...MARGINAL WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD
AIR ALOFT DESPITE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTH THE NAM AND NAMKF RUNS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT/ID/NRN NV FOR
A FEW STRONGER/HIGH-BASED STORMS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD
FURTHER ENHANCE ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. GIVEN DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER...AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION PRECLUDES
THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 04/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0497

ACUS11 KWNS 150628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150627
FLZ000-150830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL...AND THE CNTRL FL PEN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150627Z - 150830Z

ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR/JUST INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA THROUGH DAYBREAK. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.

THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A NARROW TONGUE OF 75F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS JUST
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ENHANCED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY IS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO
ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...WHERE LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. WHILE MOST
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS HAS SPREAD INLAND.
THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
SUPERCELLS PROGRESSING INLAND...THOUGH TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CELLS TO
WEAKEN INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL ADVANCE INTO
TALLAHASSEE AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY 07-08Z...AND BROKEN
LINE OF SUPERCELLS TO THE SOUTH WILL APPROACH FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEAR TAMPA FROM 08-12Z.

.KERR.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

27168593 28198601 28678590 29688496 30328375 30298271
29688200 28838233 27998274 27258404

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 145

WWUS20 KWNS 150603
SEL5
SPC WW 150603
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-151300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 900 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF MYRTLE
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAA REGIME OVER
SC...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE UPPER
60S. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH
TIME FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. EXPECT THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN NC
AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD IN THE LEE OF THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND
APPARENT MESOLOW IN CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD
SC...WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IN THE REGION OF ENHANCED
SHEAR/LIFT IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE LOW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

..THOMPSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150556
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S. THIS PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW SELY ACROSS TX
AND INTO ERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH NLY/NELY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..PARTS OF THE SWRN CONUS...
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION AT BEST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. SCATTERED WEAK/HIGH-ELEVATION STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF UT/CO/AZ/NM...AS WILL A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

OVERNIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY
SUPPORT SCATTERED/ELEVATED STORMS...BUT AGAIN -- LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 04/15/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150554
SWODY1
SPC AC 150552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
SUNDAY EVENING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER WRN NC
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NE DURING THE DAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE SRN
TIP OF FL BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NRN GA EWD
THROUGH NRN SC AND SERN NC WILL LIFT NWD INTO SERN VA EARLY SUNDAY.

..ERN CAROLINAS...

A STRONG 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT IN WARM SECTOR E OF
SURFACE LOW FROM NRN FL NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
EARLY SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWD
INTO NC WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE INTO ERN VA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME DESTABILIZATION...BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AOB 500 J/KG DUE TO EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS IN WARM SECTOR. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MID DAY.

..FL...

STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MOIST...RELATIVELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

.DIAL/TAYLOR.. 04/15/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 143

WWUS20 KWNS 150403
SEL3
SPC WW 150403
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143 ISSUED AT 525 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ALABAMA
FLORIDA
MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

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