DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151715
SWODY2
SPC AC 151714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
SRN CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM AZ ON
MONDAY...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE...WITH MODELS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SWRN STATES CLOSED LOW. RECENT COLD FRONT INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO BE DELAYED
FARTHER INLAND TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S SHOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF TX MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
RATHER LOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/EML/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.

THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH BY PEAK HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY FORM FROM SERN CO TO FAR ERN NM/TX
BORDER REGION. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
COVERAGE. THUS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM S THROUGH NW TX AND WRN OK MONDAY NIGHT
MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS W/NW TX INTO WRN OK...
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TSTMS PRODUCING SOME HAIL
THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/15/2007

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