SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151840
NCZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
VALID 151840Z - 151945Z
SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS WW AND WILL
CONTINUE PAST SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW LIKELY
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS WRN NC...FROM SC BORDER TO OUTER
BANKS...AND S OF ERN HALF OF NEWER WW 149.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS EVIDENT FROM SW OF ECG TO NEAR OAJ AS OF
1830Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SOUNDS AND OUTER BANKS
REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z. FARTHER SW...MORE
ISOLATED/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONTAL SURGE -- TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY BUOYANT/SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS NC JUST S OF WW 149. SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE LOWS ALONG MAIN SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NC. ONE OF THESE -- NOW ANALYZED
BETWEEN RDU AND VA BORDER -- HAS MOVED NEWD FROM ERN PORTION NC-SC
BORDER AS MESOLOW AND MAY EVOLVE INTO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE --
TAKING THAT ROLE FROM WRN LOW WSW GSO. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC
FORCING IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS BEHIND INITIAL LINE...ACROSS ERN NC. ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW
WILL VEER GRADUALLY AS PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT NWD OVER VA...0-1 KM SRH
AOA 300 J/KG WILL REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL NC FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...ALONG WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE BULKS SHEAR. THIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
ISOLATED SVR HAIL WITH ANY ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION.
.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
34787960 35547826 35877717 36137575 35667549 35217554
35137588 34707646 34607651 34677668 34617720 34227775
33867797 33897854
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