Sunday, March 13, 2011

KICT [140016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140016
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 N SYLVAN GROVE 39.10N 98.39W
03/13/2011 E1.5 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMC

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KTOP [140009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 140009
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 NNW HADDAM 39.88N 97.31W
03/13/2011 E0.5 INCH WASHINGTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATING ON POWERLINES...TREES...AND
GRAVEL ROADS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN A 1/4 MILE. SNOW BEGIN
ABOUT 630 PM.


&&

$$

WOLTERS

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KTOP [132359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 132359
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM SNOW NNE MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.70W
03/13/2011 E0.5 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES 0.25 TO 0.50 AN INCH OF SNOW.


&&

$$

ANDERSON

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KMFR [132346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132346
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG NNE AZALEA 42.80N 123.26W
03/13/2011 DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ACROSS ONE HOUSE AND POWER LINES DOWN...TREES DOWN
BLOCKING OLD HIGHWAY 99 BETWEEN AZALEA AND GLENDALE


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KICT [132332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132332
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM HEAVY SNOW SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
03/13/2011 E1.0 INCH SALINE KS BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

JMC

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KSGF [132330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132330
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL OZARK 37.02N 93.21W
03/13/2011 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC

REPORTED AT LAMBERTS RESTAURANT.


&&

$$

HATCH

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KMFR [132313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132313
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE OBRIEN 42.05N 123.67W
03/13/2011 M0.90 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL, MOST OCCURRING IN SQUALL LINE
THUNDERSTORM. THUNDER RATTLED PICTURES ON THE WALL. HIGH
WINDS. SOME SMALL HAIL.

0318 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E OBRIEN 42.07N 123.66W
03/13/2011 JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 199 NEAR OBRIEN. THE ROAD IS
CLOSED.

0318 PM TSTM WND GST 9 S ASHLAND 42.06N 122.70W
03/13/2011 M52.00 MPH JACKSON OR MESONET

MEASURED WIND ON AUTOMATED SENSOR AT THE LODGE.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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KSGF [132259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132259
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0429 PM HAIL MARIONVILLE 37.00N 93.64W
03/13/2011 E1.75 INCH LAWRENCE MO BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

HATCH

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KMFR [132258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132258
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
358 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
03/13/2011 M0.90 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION SINCE 8AM. NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND
SOME POWER LINES DOWN WHEN FRONT MOVED THROUGH BETWEEN 2
AND 3 PM.


&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KPDT [132258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 132258
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LONG CREEK 44.71N 119.10W
03/13/2011 M63 MPH GRANT OR MESONET

MESONET SITE MEASURED 63 MPH WIND GUST AT 324PM.


&&

$$

DWEBER

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KSGF [132240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132240
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM HAIL ROGERSVILLE 37.12N 93.06W
03/13/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132234
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 PM HAIL OZARK 37.02N 93.21W
03/13/2011 E0.88 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [132228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132228
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL BILLINGS 37.07N 93.55W
03/13/2011 E0.50 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

HATCH

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KICT [132227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132227
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
526 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM SLEET N NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W
03/13/2011 E0.00 INCH HARVEY KS AMATEUR RADIO

A MIX OF RAIN...HAIL AND SLEET CAUSED FOUR CARS TO SLIDE
INTO THE DITCH AS WELL AS A ROLL OVER ON 135 NORTH OF
NEWTON BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 35. INJURIES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BUT THE NUMBER IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.


&&

$$

VJP

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KSGF [132217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132217
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL OZARK 37.02N 93.21W
03/13/2011 E0.75 INCH CHRISTIAN MO AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

HATCH

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KMFR [132216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132216
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E NORTH BEND 43.41N 124.22W
03/13/2011 COOS OR PUBLIC

POWER OUT DUE TO HIGH WINDS FROM SQUALL LINE ON EAST SIDE
OF NORTH BEND.

0133 PM HAIL 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
03/13/2011 E0.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. ALSO EXTREMELY WINDY, BUT NO WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE.

0225 PM TSTM WND GST NNE AZALEA 42.80N 123.26W
03/13/2011 M40.00 MPH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY PEA SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND. WIND GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH. NUMEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. AZALEA STORE.

0225 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNE POWERS 42.99N 124.01W
03/13/2011 E0.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER AND INTENSE RAIN OVERFLOWED GUTTERS. WIND WAS 25
KNOTS AT TIME OF THE CALL, BUT STRONGER EARLIER.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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KSGF [132213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132213
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 PM HAIL NIXA 37.04N 93.29W
03/13/2011 E0.75 INCH CHRISTIAN MO BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [132212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132212
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 2 E NIXA 37.04N 93.26W
03/13/2011 E0.75 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [132202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132202
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 1 NNW BOAZ 37.03N 93.41W
03/13/2011 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

JCOLUCCI

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KSGF [132147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132147
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL CLEVER 37.03N 93.47W
03/13/2011 E0.88 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

JCOLUCCI

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KMFR [132146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132146
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM HAIL MERLIN 42.52N 123.42W
03/13/2011 E1.75 INCH JOSEPHINE OR PUBLIC

REPORTED SIZE TO BEING CLOSE TO GOLF BALL SIZE WITH LOTS
OF LIGHTNING..


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [132143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132143
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NNE ROGUE RIVER 42.55N 123.14W
03/13/2011 E20 MPH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132132
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E KLAMATH FALLS 42.23N 121.72W
03/13/2011 E45 MPH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KICT [132131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132131
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
431 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 4 N EL DORADO 37.88N 96.86W
03/13/2011 E0.25 INCH BUTLER KS BROADCAST MEDIA

KWCH METEOROLOGIST REPORTING PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE
TURNPIKE AT MILE MARKER 79 JUST NORTH OF EL DORADO.


&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [132131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132131
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 2 NW HUTCHINSON 38.08N 97.94W
03/13/2011 E0.25 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

COVERING THE GROUND. HIGHWAY K-96 VERY SLICK WITH 4
ACCIDENTS AND MANY VEHICLES IN DITCHES. POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SLEET.


&&

$$

EPS

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KMFR [132125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132125
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
225 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N ROSEBURG 43.25N 123.36W
03/13/2011 E50 MPH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SHINGLES BLOWING OFF SOME ROOFS...


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [132124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132124
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM HAIL ROSEBURG 43.22N 123.36W
03/13/2011 E0.25 INCH DOUGLAS OR PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 30 MPH WIND GUSTS


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [132122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132122
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW ROSEBURG 43.22N 123.38W
03/13/2011 M60 MPH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

POURING RAIN...HAIL...ROOF SHINGLES BLOWING OFF


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KSGF [132104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 132104
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 3 WNW SARCOXIE 37.08N 94.17W
03/13/2011 E0.88 INCH JASPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KMFR [132058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132058
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0157 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SSE COOS BAY 43.36N 124.22W
03/13/2011 E33 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED MICROBURST OCCURED...REPORTED SOME TREES AND
POWERLINES ARE DOWN...SOME HAIL OBSERVED...


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KSGF [132056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132056
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 2 NW SARCOXIE 37.09N 94.14W
03/13/2011 E0.88 INCH JASPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

JCOLUCCI

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KSGF [132045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132045
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM HAIL 1 W SARCOXIE 37.07N 94.13W
03/13/2011 E0.75 INCH JASPER MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

JCOLUCCI

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KMFR [132037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132037
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
137 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM HAIL 4 NNW BROOKINGS 42.11N 124.33W
03/13/2011 E0.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

25 MPH TO 40 MPH ESTIMATED GUSTS...


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KICT [132037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132037
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 9 E KINGMAN 37.65N 97.95W
03/13/2011 M0.25 INCH KINGMAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SOME VEHICLE SLIDE-OFFS IN DITCH REPORTED IN SAME AREA
FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT...IN THE VICINITY OF K-17 AND
HIGHWAY 54.


&&

$$

KED

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KLBF [132037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 132037
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM SNOW 10 NE OSHKOSH 41.51N 102.21W
03/13/2011 E4.0 INCH GARDEN NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JSWEET

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KMFR [132028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132028
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
128 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM TSTM WND GST BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
03/13/2011 E40 MPH CURRY OR PUBLIC

CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO AIR OBSERVED NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF BROOKINGS.


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KICT [132019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132019
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 PM HAIL AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.98W
03/13/2011 M0.25 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

KED

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KMFR [132017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132017
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
117 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
03/13/2011 M71 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KSGF [132009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 132009
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HAIL 5 SE JOPLIN 37.03N 94.45W
03/13/2011 E1.00 INCH NEWTON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

DCRAMER

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KICT [132007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132007
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0256 PM HAIL 2 NW CLEARWATER 37.53N 97.53W
03/13/2011 M0.25 INCH SEDGWICK KS NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

KED

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131950
SWODY1
SPC AC 131948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OREGON COAST...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NRN CA/SWRN OREGON COAST. INTENSE
WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND DOWNWARD MIXING WITHIN THE STORM CORES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS LINE AS IT
AFFECTS THE COAST. VAD WINDS FROM MEDFORD SHOW 50 KT WINDS AROUND
500 M AGL. FOR MORE INFORMATION REF MCD 222.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FARTHER NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND NERN OREGON AND INTO WA AS IT NOW APPEARS COOLING ALOFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THAT
AREA MAINLY 00-06Z.

...NRN TX...SRN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX...
ADDED A SMALL SEVERE HAIL AREA FOR N TX INTO SRN OK FOR THIS
EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX ACROSS CNTRL OK
AND INTO NWRN AR. POCKETS OF HEATING WERE OCCURRING BENEATH THICK
CIRRUS NEAR THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION AND SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN N TX. WHILE CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO FORCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK BY ABOUT 03Z. STEEP LAPSE RATE
PROFILES ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST LOW
END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

..JEWELL.. 03/13/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011/

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WHILE TRANSLATING ESEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER N-CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTO W-CNTRL AR BY MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EML
AND ASSOCIATED CAP OVER THE SRN PLAINS SITUATED ATOP A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NERN OK AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE 800-MB.
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE-BASED /OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED/ STORM INITIATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN OK INTO
N-CNTRL/NERN TX AS CAP IS GRADUALLY ERODED BY LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SHOULD TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY YIELD CORRIDORS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG/ BY
EARLY EVENING INVOF THE RED RIVER...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

...NRN CA/PACIFIC NW COASTS...

A VERY INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST LATER TODAY PRIOR TO SHIFTING INTO
INTERIOR PARTS OF WA/ORE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. A BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH MORE OPEN
CELLULAR CONVECTION LIKELY CONTINUING TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TONIGHT. VERY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 100-150
J/KG OVER WRN ORE. MOREOVER...FORECAST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG
VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER THAN
FORECAST DESTABILIZATION WHICH MIGHT WARRANT INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0222

ACUS11 KWNS 131931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131931
CAZ000-ORZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN CA AND SWRN OR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131931Z - 132130Z

RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY LOW TOPPED LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ONTO THE COAST OF NWRN CA AND SWRN OREGON BY
21Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL OR ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
WW. LOW WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

A LOW TOPPED BAND OF STORMS HAS FORMED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE
COAST OF NWRN CA AND SWRN OREGON MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35-40 KT.
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DPVA AND
FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS AS ZONE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVE ONSHORE. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
JETS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH. BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST EVENT.

..DIAL.. 03/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

LAT...LON 42102345 40872317 39762372 40352421 41552406 42362432
42102345

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KMFR [131908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131908
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1208 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1207 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE BROOKINGS 42.05N 124.28W
03/13/2011 M63 MPH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KLBF [131905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 131905
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM SNOW 24 SW VALENTINE 42.63N 100.88W
03/13/2011 E2.5 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

REPORT IS FROM MERRITT RESERVOIR.


&&

$$

JSWEET

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KCYS [131857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131857 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1256 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 17 NW CHEYENNE 41.32N 105.02W
03/13/2011 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY MESONET


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KMFR [131855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131855
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1155 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S ASHLAND 42.12N 122.70W
03/13/2011 E50 MPH JACKSON OR PUBLIC

REPORT FROM MOUNT ASHLAND SKI RESORT...SEEING GOOD GUSTS
IN PARKING LOT...


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KCYS [131848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1248 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 17 NW CHEYENNE 41.32N 105.02W
03/13/2011 M0.0 INCH LARAMIE WY MESONET


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KLBF [131844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 131844
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0144 PM SNOW 28 S VALENTINE 42.47N 100.55W
03/13/2011 E2.8 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

JSWEET

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KMFR [131843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131843
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1143 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W BANDON 43.12N 124.43W
03/13/2011 M59 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KLBF [131807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 131807
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM SNOW CALLAWAY 41.29N 99.92W
03/13/2011 E2.0 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

SNOW IS NOW MIXING WITH RAIN.


&&

$$

SJACOBS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130829
SWOD48
SPC AC 130828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING LARGE SCALE
FEATURES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL
BE THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE SEVERAL BOUTS OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR RETURN MOISTURE
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THAT RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MOVING INLAND UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A WRN U.S. TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE BY LATE WEEK AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2011

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KCYS [130728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 130728
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1228 AM MST SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
03/13/2011 M4.0 INCH ALBANY WY PUBLIC

REAL WET SNOW AND WAS MELTING


&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130700
SWODY3
SPC AC 130659

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE -NAM/GFS/ECMWF- IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES/WRN TN
VALLEY...MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD COOLER LESS BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEDGE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS TX...WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO MOISTEN A BIT BENEATH
WEAK-MODEST FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH STEEPER
ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130541
SWODY2
SPC AC 130540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID SOUTH TO SOUTH TX...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE GFS AND NAM ALLOWING A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PROGRESS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY 15/00Z. WITH
60-90M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN MO/AR INTO WRN TN IT
APPEARS THIS ZONE WILL BE WHERE FOCUSED ASCENT ENHANCES FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. ULTIMATELY THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
DESPITE THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION WILL BE SWWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN/SOUTH TX WHERE FORCING WILL BE MEAGER TO
NEUTRAL. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ACROSS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT WEAK SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DOES NOT
PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5% PROBS FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE LOW PROBS IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO ID/UT/WRN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENHANCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130531
SWODY1
SPC AC 130529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS...TWO OTHER TROUGHS -- ONE CROSSING THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE OTHER/LARGER ONE SHIFTING ONSHORE OVER THE PAC
NW -- WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE AND CROSS WA/OREGON AND
MUCH OF CA...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A WEAKER/BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE SRN
PLAINS -- EVOLVING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE ERN US FRONT STILL
TRAILING WWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL TX/ERN OK/SERN KS EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH FALLING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WEAK...COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP
LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWER/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
ONLY MODERATE FLOW FIELD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT.

...COASTAL WA AND OREGON AND COASTAL NW CA...
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE -- PARTICULARLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE YIELDING STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG
WINDWARD SIDES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..GOSS.. 03/13/2011

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