SWODY3
SPC AC 130659
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE -NAM/GFS/ECMWF- IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES/WRN TN
VALLEY...MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD COOLER LESS BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEDGE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS TX...WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO MOISTEN A BIT BENEATH
WEAK-MODEST FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH STEEPER
ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT.
..DARROW.. 03/13/2011
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