KBGM [232230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 232230
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL WHITNEY POINT 42.33N 75.97W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

TAC

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KJAX [232228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 232228
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 N INTERLACHEN 29.69N 81.90W
05/23/2009 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER WESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTY.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KBGM [232226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 232226
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG LISLE 42.35N 76.00W
05/23/2009 BROOME NY EMERGENCY MNGR

SOME WIRES AND A UTILITY POLE HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

$$

JAB

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KLWX [232219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232219
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
618 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL WILEY FORD 39.61N 78.78W
05/23/2009 E0.88 INCH MINERAL WV TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WILEY FORD.

&&

$$

BJL

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KBGM [232153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 232153
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
553 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL LISLE 42.35N 76.00W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

TAC

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KBGM [232136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 232136
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
536 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL RICHFORD 42.35N 76.20W
05/23/2009 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0508 PM HAIL ITHACA 42.44N 76.50W
05/23/2009 E0.75 INCH TOMPKINS NY PUBLIC

0514 PM HAIL 5 E ITHACA 42.44N 76.41W
05/23/2009 E0.75 INCH TOMPKINS NY AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

DJN

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KLBF [232135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 232135
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM HAIL 9 N IMPERIAL 40.65N 101.64W
05/23/2009 E0.88 INCH CHASE NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KEWX [232131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 232131
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM HAIL 8 N LEAKEY 29.84N 99.76W
05/23/2009 E0.25 INCH REAL TX PUBLIC

0115 PM HAIL UTOPIA 29.62N 99.53W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

MINOR STREET FLOODING

0136 PM HAIL HONDO 29.36N 99.16W
05/23/2009 E0.70 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

0146 PM HAIL 1 NW HONDO 29.37N 99.17W
05/23/2009 E0.70 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

0148 PM HAIL 1 N HONDO 29.37N 99.16W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

0151 PM HAIL 1 E HONDO 29.36N 99.14W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

0223 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E LACKLAND AFB 29.39N 98.58W
05/23/2009 M72 MPH BEXAR TX OTHER FEDERAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00572 00574 00573 00577 00575 00578 00576

$$

JPB

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KBGM [232127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 232127
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL RICHFORD 42.35N 76.20W
05/23/2009 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0508 PM HAIL ITHACA 42.44N 76.50W
05/23/2009 E0.75 INCH TOMPKINS NY PUBLIC

0514 PM HAIL ITHACA 42.44N 76.50W
05/23/2009 E0.75 INCH TOMPKINS NY AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

DJN

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KSGF [232124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 232124
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDERSON 36.65N 94.44W
05/23/2009 MCDONALD MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRESS BOX BLOWN DOWN AT HIGH SCHOOL

&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KTBW [232118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 232118
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
518 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 1 NW MULBERRY 27.91N 81.98W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH POLK FL PUBLIC

REPORTED NEAR IMPERIAL LAKES.

0410 PM HAIL 5 SE RUSKIN 27.66N 82.37W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH HILLSBOROUGH FL PUBLIC

HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR LITTLE MANATEE STATE PARK.

0427 PM HAIL 14 ESE ZEPHYRHILLS 28.16N 81.96W
05/23/2009 E0.88 INCH POLK FL PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR ROCK RIDGE.

&&

$$

REYNES

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KPHI [232104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 232104
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 2 NNE LEHIGH UNIVERSITY 40.63N 75.37W
05/23/2009 M1.00 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP.

0437 PM HAIL 2 WNW WILSON 40.70N 75.28W
05/23/2009 M0.75 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A METEOROLOGIST IN PALMER
TOWNSHIP.

0447 PM HAIL PHILLIPSBURG 40.69N 75.18W
05/23/2009 M1.00 INCH WARREN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0452 PM HAIL ALPHA 40.66N 75.16W
05/23/2009 M0.75 INCH WARREN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL IN ALPHA.

&&

$$

TFG

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KPHI [232102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 232102
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 2 NNE LEHIGH UNIVERSITY 40.63N 75.37W
05/23/2009 M1.00 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP.

0437 PM HAIL 2 WNW WILSON 40.70N 75.28W
05/23/2009 M0.75 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A METEOROLOGIST IN PALMER
TOWNSHIP.

0447 PM HAIL PHILLIPSBURG 40.69N 75.18W
05/23/2009 M0.25 INCH WARREN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0452 PM HAIL ALPHA 40.66N 75.16W
05/23/2009 M0.75 INCH WARREN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL IN ALPHA.

&&

$$

TFG

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KPHI [232052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 232052
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 2 NNE LEHIGH UNIVERSITY 40.63N 75.37W
05/23/2009 M1.00 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP.

0437 PM HAIL 2 WNW WILSON 40.70N 75.28W
05/23/2009 M0.75 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A METEOROLOGIST IN PALMER
TOWNSHIP.

&&

$$

TFG

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KLBF [232048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 232048
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S MAXWELL 41.04N 100.53W
05/23/2009 E1.25 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KEWX [232039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 232039
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E LACKLAND AFB 29.39N 98.58W
05/23/2009 M72 MPH BEXAR TX OTHER FEDERAL

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER 00576

$$

JPB

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KLBF [232035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 232035
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TORNADO 2 E MAXWELL 41.08N 100.49W
05/23/2009 LINCOLN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO REPORTED EAST OF THE MAXWELL INTERCHANGE ON
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KSGF [232015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 232015
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL NORWOOD 37.11N 92.41W
05/23/2009 E0.25 INCH WRIGHT MO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

DSA

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KSGF [232005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 232005
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL ANDERSON 36.65N 94.44W
05/23/2009 E0.25 INCH MCDONALD MO EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

DSA

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KSGF [231952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 231952
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 ENE BROOKLINE 37.19N 93.36W
05/23/2009 GREENE MO COUNTY OFFICIAL

UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF FLOODING ON FARM ROAD 146 ON
WILSONS CREEK EAST OF SOUTH CANTON AVE.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

$$

DSA

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KJAX [231949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231949
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 SSW OCALA 29.05N 82.19W
05/23/2009 MARION FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

ARS

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KSGF [231944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 231944
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ENE BROOKLINE 37.18N 93.37W
05/23/2009 GREENE MO COUNTY OFFICIAL

UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF FLOODING ON FARM ROAD 146 ON
WILSONS CREEK EAST OF SOUTH CANTON AVE.

&&

$$

DSA

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KEWX [231940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 231940
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E LACKLAND AFB 29.38N 98.58W
05/23/2009 M63 MPH BEXAR TX OTHER FEDERAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00576

$$

JPB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231936
SWODY1
SPC AC 231933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES/FLORIDA...
REMOVED 5 PERCENT WIND LINE FROM THE SW FL WHERE STORM COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS AND OUTFLOW HAS SURGED WWD OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED 5 PERCENT WIND LINE A BIT NWD ACROSS
NCNTRL AL AND ERN MS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL
INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVE NWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...NEB...
EXPANDED 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL LINE A BIT EWD ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN ERN NEB WHERE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG/ AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FROM THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009/

PRIMARY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF THE
NATION. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR MOB WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO AL/MS TODAY. SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF
NY...AND FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS WILL SEE STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW AOB 20 KT IN MOST AREAS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...GULF COAST...
LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY NEAR MOB AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY INLAND.
LOCAL VAD PROFILES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THIS REGION ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO...PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

...FL...
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SOME CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

...NEB...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
OVER WESTERN NEB MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER TODAY FROM
NEAR GLD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER THIS REGION AND HELP TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT RELATIVELY
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH IN STRONGER CORES FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0859

ACUS11 KWNS 231933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231932
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FAR SWRN GA/NRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231932Z - 232030Z

OCCURRENCE OF ROTATION IN ISOLD STORMS HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SERN AL/SWRN GA/NRN FL
PANHANDLE BORDERS. DUE TO ISOLD AND BRIEF NATURE OF ROTATION...A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GULF SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN FAR SRN MS...WITH ELY
SURFACE WINDS PREDOMINANT TO THE E OF THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AL/GA/FL. WINDS VEER SHARPLY FROM ELY TO SLY FROM 0 TO 3000
FT...ROUGHLY IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...AS REFLECTED ON RECENT VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA IN E CNTRL AL. ENHANCED SRH IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW BRIEF ROTATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO IN A
VERY MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST LONGER
THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS HAS
BEEN SUPPORTED BY LIGHTNING TRENDS...AS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE DISCRETE CELLS/SMALL CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING GIVEN WEAK UPDRAFTS. REGARDLESS...ANY ROTATION WILL LIKELY
BE BRIEF...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..HURLBUT.. 05/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31108499 30818525 30958586 31198648 31708664 32478701
32728664 32898622 32408512 31808476 31528470 31108499

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KSGF [231931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 231931
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ENE BROOKLINE 37.18N 93.37W
05/23/2009 GREENE MO COUNTY OFFICIAL

FARM ROAD 156 FLOODED AT WILSONS CREEK WEST OF WEST
BYPASS.

&&

$$

DSA

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KBMX [231912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 231912
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
212 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE MOUNTAIN CREEK 32.70N 86.43W
05/23/2009 AUTAUGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AT 533 COUNTY ROAD 20
EAST IN MARBURY. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

$$

GGOGGINS

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KEWX [231848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 231848
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM HAIL 1 N HONDO 29.37N 99.16W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00575

$$

JPB

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KTAE [231847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231847
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND DMG MADISON 30.47N 83.42W
05/23/2009 MADISON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ROCKY FORT ROAD. POWER POLE DOWN
IN DOWN TOWN MADISON.

&&

$$

DUGGAN

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KEWX [231840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 231840
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL UTOPIA 29.62N 99.53W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

MINOR STREET FLOODING

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER 00574

$$

JPB

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KEWX [231838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 231838
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM HAIL UTOPIA 29.62N 99.53W
05/23/2009 E0.50 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

MINOR STREET FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00574

$$

JPB

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KEWX [231836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 231836
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
136 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM HAIL HONDO 29.36N 99.16W
05/23/2009 E0.70 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00573

$$

JPB

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KTAE [231834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231834
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM HAIL MADISON 30.47N 83.42W
05/23/2009 E0.88 INCH MADISON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WINDS 40 MPH WIDE SPREAD POWER OUTAGE VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

$$

DUGGAN

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KMOB [231833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMOB 231833
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 AM TSTM WND GST 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 M55.00 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

47 KNOTS/ 55 MPH WIND GUST AT DPIA1.

0800 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 M38.00 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

33 KNOTS/ 38 MPH SUSTAIN WINDS AT DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN
STATION.

0800 AM TSTM WND GST 18 SSE DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.45N 87.92W
05/23/2009 M36.00 MPH BALDWIN AL MESONET

31 KNOTS/ 36 MPH SUSTAIN WIND AT MIDDLE BAY LIGHT HOUSE.

0818 AM TSTM WND GST PENSACOLA 30.42N 87.19W
05/23/2009 M37.00 MPH ESCAMBIA FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

32 KNOTS/ 37 MPH WIND GUST AT PENSACOLA ASOS

0820 AM TSTM WND GST PENSACOLA NAVAL BASE 30.36N 87.27W
05/23/2009 M39.00 MPH ESCAMBIA FL ASOS

34 KNOTS/ 39 MPH WIND GUST AT NAS PENSACOLA

0950 AM TSTM WND GST 4 SW DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.65N 88.09W
05/23/2009 M37.00 MPH MOBILE AL ASOS

32 KNOTS/ 37 MPH WIND GUST AT MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.28N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL STORM CHASER

FLASH FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG HWY 193 BEWTEEN
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND ALABAMA PORT. WATER AND DEBRIS
COVERING THE ROAD.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD BAYOU LA BATRE 30.40N 88.25W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG HWY 188 IN BAYOU LA
BATRE.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.26N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ON THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND. ROAD CLOSED AT THE WEST END OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

1136 AM TSTM WND GST DESTIN 30.41N 86.50W
05/23/2009 M47.00 MPH OKALOOSA FL ASOS

41 KNOTS/ 47 MPH WIND GUST AT DESTIN ASOS

&&

$$

04/KC

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KEWX [231725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 231725
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM HAIL 8 N LEAKEY 29.84N 99.76W
05/23/2009 E0.25 INCH REAL TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00572

$$

JPB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231718
SWODY2
SPC AC 231715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
NERN STATES SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AROUND MIDDAY AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOW UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST LARGELY DUE TO
STRONGER FLOW ON THE SRN EDGE OF MID-LEVEL JET OVER QUEBEC. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. BENEATH THE TROUGH...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FROM NERN CO NWD ACROSS WRN NEB...WRN SD AND ERN WY. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE PLAINS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
IN ADDITION...30 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY IF A LINE-SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2009

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KMOB [231656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KMOB 231656
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 AM TSTM WND GST 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 M55.00 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

47 KNOTS/ 55 MPH WIND GUST AT DPIA1.

0800 AM TSTM WND GST 18 SSE DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.45N 87.92W
05/23/2009 M36.00 MPH BALDWIN AL MESONET

31 KNOTS/ 36 MPH SUSTAIN WIND AT MIDDLE BAY LIGHT HOUSE.

0800 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 M38.00 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

33 KTS/ 38 MPH SUSTAIN WINDS AT DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN
STATION.

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.28N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL STORM CHASER

FLASH FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG HWY 193 BEWTEEN
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND ALABAMA PORT. WATER AND DEBRIS
COVERING THE ROAD.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD BAYOU LA BATRE 30.40N 88.25W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG HWY 188 IN BAYOU LA
BATRE.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.26N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ON THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND. ROAD CLOSED AT THE WEST END OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

04/KC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

ACUS11 KWNS 231650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231649
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY/PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231649Z - 231745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.
MARGINAL THREATS OF HAIL/WIND CAN BE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLD SEVERE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING WSW FROM NEAR KPIT TO ENE TO KAVP HAS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED HEATING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AS A STRATUS LAYER
LINGERS. TO THE N AND S OF THIS BAND WHERE GREATER HEATING IS
OCCURRING...CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...AMPLE HEATING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE REMAINING
CINH...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY PER ADJUSTED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND AMPLE
MOISTURE SHOWN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WV IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A MORE ORGANIZED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE WELL REMOVED
FROM INFLUENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...AS GREATER INSTABILITY LIES TO THE N AND S.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 30 TO 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...PULSE STORMS AND BRIEF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN OVERALL DISORGANIZED/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..HURLBUT.. 05/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40027689 39697792 39627901 40027917 40767854 42147736
42617668 42917596 42557524 41687537 40957582 40027689

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KMOB [231646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 231646
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 M38 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

33 KTS/ 38 MPH SUSTAIN WINDS AT DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN
STATION.

0752 AM TSTM WND GST 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.25N 88.07W
05/23/2009 E55 MPH GMZ650 AL C-MAN STATION

47 KNOTS/ 55 MPH WIND GUST AT DPIA1.

0800 AM TSTM WND GST 18 SSE DOWNTOWN MOBILE 30.45N 87.92W
05/23/2009 M36 MPH BALDWIN AL MESONET

33 KNOTS/ 36 MPH SUSTAIN WIND AT MIDDLE BAY LIGHT HOUSE.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD BAYOU LA BATRE 30.40N 88.25W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG HWY 188 IN BAYOU LA
BATRE.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.26N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ON THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND. ROAD CLOSED AT THE WEST END OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N DAUPHIN ISLAND 30.28N 88.11W
05/23/2009 MOBILE AL STORM CHASER

FLASH FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG HWY 193 BEWTEEN
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND ALABAMA PORT. WATER AND DEBRIS
COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

$$

04/KC

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KSGF [231641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 231641
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM HAIL SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
05/23/2009 E0.25 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL A LIITTLE BIGGER THAN PEAS WEST SPRINGFIELD. TWO
REPORTS.

&&

$$

DSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231554
SWODY1
SPC AC 231550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PRIMARY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF THE
NATION. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR MOB WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO AL/MS TODAY. SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF
NY...AND FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS WILL SEE STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW AOB 20 KT IN MOST AREAS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...GULF COAST...
LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY NEAR MOB AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY INLAND.
LOCAL VAD PROFILES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THIS REGION ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO...PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

...FL...
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SOME CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

...NEB...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
OVER WESTERN NEB MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER TODAY FROM
NEAR GLD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER THIS REGION AND HELP TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT RELATIVELY
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH IN STRONGER CORES FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 05/23/2009

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KJAX [231350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231350
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
05/23/2009 M21.70 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 21.70 INCHES REPORTED AT FLAGLER
COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/23/2009 M16.46 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
16.46 INCHES IN FLAGLER BEACH.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 WSW BUNNELL 29.40N 81.44W
05/23/2009 M25.70 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
25.70 INCHES AT HAW CREEK.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN NW PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
05/23/2009 M21.90 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
21.90 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PALM COAST.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
05/23/2009 M19.75 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
19.75 INCHES AT TOWN CENTER IN PALM COAST.

&&

$$

MZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231254
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
REGION AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE EWD FROM
ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC. FARTHER S...A MORE DIFFUSE FLOW REGIME
PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE GULF
COAST AND NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ AND NM.

A BROAD PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF PRIOR CONVECTION HAVE
ADJUSTED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC.
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE LIMITED BY
THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER.

...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/ERN MS TODAY...
THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
HAS CONSOLIDATED OVERNIGHT INTO TIGHTER CYCLONE THAT IS NOW
APPROACHING THE AL COAST. SEVERAL PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS...AND ASSOCIATED/FOCUSED LATENT HEAT RELEASE...APPEAR TO
HAVE AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF QUASI-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS LARGER SCALE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING OF ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO 30-40 KT TO
THE N/NE OF THE CYCLONE...AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM MOB
AND EVX THAT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS TODAY ALONG THE COAST. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...AS WELL
AS GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NNWWD/INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED
ORIGINATING OVER THE LOOP CURRENT.

...N CENTRAL/NE PA AND S CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PA AND
SRN NY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE...IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AOB 7 C/KM OVER THIS REGION WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK
WELL TO THE N...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 F WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PA/NY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF
THE THREAT LIMITED INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY TRAJECTORIES OFF THE COOL
WATER.

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
SPEED INCREASES WITH HEIGHT AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS
UPDATE.

...SRN MT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ON THE NRN FRINGE OF
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SRN MT TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD FROM UT.
THOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OVER MT TODAY...A FEW STORMS
SHOULD FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO S
CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ALONG THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT.

...SW NEB BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NE CO INTO NEB.
MOIST PROFILES/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY...WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASES ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
MAY OCCUR...BUT THESE THREATS APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL ATTM.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 05/23/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

ACUS11 KWNS 230734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230734
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-230930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN AL...EXTREME SERN MS AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230734Z - 230930Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SWRN
AL...SERN MS THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 60 MILES OFF THE SWRN AL COAST. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE BAND SITUATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WITH AN
EMBEDDED MESO-LOW CIRCULATION ABOUT 15-20 MILES OFFSHORE IS MOVING
NNWWD AT 10-15 KT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
FARTHER EAST ALONG OUTER CONVERGENCE BANDS NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE. TREND HAS BEEN FOR HODOGRAPHS TO INCREASE IN SIZE AS
SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT ELY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP NWD. VWP
DATA FROM MOBILE INDICATE 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY BASED ON
OBSERVED STORM MOTION...AND STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW OCCASIONAL
UPDRAFT ROTATION. OVERALL TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF
WATERS CLOSER TO SHORE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
INLAND SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TO COASTAL AREAS.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30368752 30288857 30758817 30668648 30358581 30108594
30288655 30368752

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230723
SWOD48
SPC AC 230723

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LOW...THOUGH SOME
CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. EVOLUTION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF --
BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 5-6 /WED. MAY 27 TO THU. MAY 28/. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A SLOW EXPANSION IN CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
TROUGHING...DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

ASIDE FROM NEW ENGLAND...MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY WEAK IN MOST AREAS...UNTIL EXPANDING ERN TROUGH SUPPORTS A
LIMITED INCREASE. ONE OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS TX -- WHERE
SUBTLE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH AN OTHERWISE MODEST SRN STREAM MAY
PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW FIELD. THIS ATOP
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SLYS WOULD SUGGEST A SHEAR PROFILE
OCCASIONALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
ANY THREAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING ANY
THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230652
SWODY3
SPC AC 230650

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLACK FLOW PATTERN AT MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH A
SERIES OF VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
SHOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WEAKLY-VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A VERY LOW-END SEVERE THREAT...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
FROM THE OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. S OF A WEAK/LINGERING W-E
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER -- ASIDE FROM ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
THREAT...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2009

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KFGZ [230643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KFGZ 230643
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1142 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD PAGE 36.90N 111.46W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 900 AND 1000 AM MST
CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF
PAGE. SEVERAL ROADS TEMPORARY CLOSED...WITH STREET
FLOODING IN MUCH OF THE CITY.

1222 PM TORNADO 8 NE FLAGSTAFF 35.27N 111.52W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY COCONINO SHERIFFS OFFICE

0100 PM TORNADO 9 NE FLAGSTAFF 35.28N 111.51W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO NE OF FLAGSTAFF

0230 PM TORNADO PETRIFED FOREST N.P. HE 35.07N 109.78W
05/22/2009 APACHE AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO

0545 PM FLOOD 7 NW ROUGH ROCK 36.48N 109.96W
05/22/2009 APACHE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAIN CAUSED FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF ROUTE 59
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROUGH ROCK.

0624 PM FLOOD 6 S LEUPP 35.20N 110.96W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

BETWEEN 6 TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF LEUPP SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
99 FLOODED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

DB

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KFGZ [230636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 230636
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1132 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 PM TORNADO 8 NE FLAGSTAFF 35.27N 111.52W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY COCONINO SHERIFFS OFFICE

0100 PM TORNADO 9 NE FLAGSTAFF 35.28N 111.51W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO NE OF FLAGSTAFF

0230 PM TORNADO PETRIFED FOREST N.P. HE 35.07N 109.78W
05/22/2009 APACHE AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO

&&

$$

DB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230555
SWODY1
SPC AC 230552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE
OVER WRN CANADA. MEAN RIDGE WILL BE PENETRATED OVER NRN ROCKIES BY
RELATIVELY TIGHT/QUASI-ZONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM COASTAL
BC AND PAC NW EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TO GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. S OF RELATED BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT...VERY LOOSE
HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS SERN CONUS AS NOTED BELOW. MOST
PROMINENT FEATURES ALOFT WILL BE BROAD CYCLONE OVER SWRN CONUS AND
LOW MOVING INLAND FROM NERN GULF. SWRN LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN/CENTRAL AZ...IS FCST TO
MOVE/REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS UT THEN AND CONNECT WITH SRN FRINGE OF WLY
FLOW BELT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH WRN WY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BASED ON STG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/NAM AND SREF MEAN. MEANWHILE...GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER GULF COAST BETWEEN SIL-PNS EARLY IN PERIOD AND
PROCEED SLOWLY NWWD ACROSS MS.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM NRN MN OVER
E-CENTRAL/SWRN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE -- IS FCST TO MERGE WITH
WEAKER/OLDER FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS S AND DECELERATE. RESULT BY 24/00Z
SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM W-CENTRAL IL WWD INVOF KS/NEB
BORDER TO NERN CO...RETURNING NWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WARM FRONT.

...ERN GULF COAST REGION...
NERN GULF LOW MAY BECOME TROPICAL IN CHARACTER BEFORE LANDFALL...REF
NHC OUTLOOK UNDER WMO HEADER ABNT 20 KNHC FOR DETAILS. BELT OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SFC -- I.E. LLJ WITH 30-40 KT WIND
BETWEEN .5-4 KM AGL -- REASONABLY IS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS ESE-NE
OF CENTER AS IT TRACKS INLAND...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES TROPICAL CHARACTER
BEFORE MOVING INLAND...NET EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN
MIDDLE-OUTER PORTION OF CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT
OFTEN SEEN WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS OR INLAND DECAY
PHASES OF INITIALLY STRONGER SYSTEMS...E.G. 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG
OVER BROAD AREA. THIS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION...DESPITE WEAKER WINDS IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...AS LONG AS
SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION CAN
DEVELOP AND CONVECTIVE MODE IS DISCRETE/ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. ATTM RISK IS TOO MRGL AND CONDITIONAL ON
MESOBETA AND SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL
ZONE...STRONGLY TIED TO COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WINDS AND FRONTAL LIFT. SUFFICIENT HEATING
AGAIN SHOULD OCCUR TO OFFSET SEASONALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING FROM QUASI-MONSOONAL SWRN REGIME. MID-UPPER WINDS ARE
FCST TO REMAIN WEAK...LEADING TO QUICKLY PRECIP-CONTAMINATED UPDRAFT
REGIONS AND OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTER OF STORMS. BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
LOWEST FEW KM AGL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY CURVING...IF RATHER
SMALL...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTER.
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MRGL SVR HAIL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO BE WEAK...STG TURNING WITH
HEIGHT AND ELY SFC WINDS ARE FCST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MT
BENEATH 50-60 KT UPPER JET. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
RATHER MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MLCAPES UNDER 1000
J/KG...BUT SFC HEATING MAY BE STG ENOUGH TO RENDER WEAK MLCINH.
LACK OF EVIDENCE OF DISTINCT LOW LEVEL FOCI -- OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC
-- INDICATES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
ACCORDINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL AND SREF PROGS BEAR THIS OUT...WITH
LACK OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP FCST ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR SVR...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
STORM COVERAGE...UNCONDITIONAL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.

...NERN CONUS...
DIURNAL HEATING IS FCST TO WEAKEN CINH ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION TO OFFSET MIXING AND MAINTAIN
SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S F IN MOST AREAS. MODIFIED ETA-KF
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. WELL-DEFINED N-S BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
DAY...ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NY SWD TO NJ OR NERN PA -- DEMARCATING
RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE MARINE AIR TO ITS E FROM MORE STRONGLY
HEATED...HIGHER THETAE INLAND REGIME OVER PA AND CENTRAL NY. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL PREVAIL W OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FLOW STEADILY STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 60-65
KT AT 250 MB. ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY
ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY...AND LOCALLY BACKED WINDS IN BAROCLINIC
ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION IN ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE ACTIVITY TRAVERSING IT.

..EDWARDS/GRAMS.. 05/23/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS ATTM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF A STRONG ERN CANADA TROUGH.

A SMALL UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NNWWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...WHILE A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE INITIAL FEATURE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS
-- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS WWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK LOW/LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND/WEAK LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AR/LA REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LEE TROUGHING/WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN ROCKIES. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION -- BUT THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS -- BOTH
INVOF THE LEE TROUGH AND EWD INTO SD ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL
SELYS VEERING TO MODEST WSWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH IT APPEARS
AT THIS POINT THAT STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- WILL
REMAIN LIMITED...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
SERN NY/ERN PA/NJ/THE DELMARVA REGION...AHEAD OF THE WEAK/ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ALONG
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...VERY WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY-STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THE ERN
CANADA/NERN U.S. TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT-MORE
ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED STORMS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THUS...WILL INCLUDE LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
FORECAST...TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND WHICH MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2009

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