MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

ACUS11 KWNS 231650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231649
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY/PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231649Z - 231745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.
MARGINAL THREATS OF HAIL/WIND CAN BE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLD SEVERE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING WSW FROM NEAR KPIT TO ENE TO KAVP HAS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED HEATING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AS A STRATUS LAYER
LINGERS. TO THE N AND S OF THIS BAND WHERE GREATER HEATING IS
OCCURRING...CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...AMPLE HEATING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE REMAINING
CINH...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY PER ADJUSTED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND AMPLE
MOISTURE SHOWN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WV IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A MORE ORGANIZED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE WELL REMOVED
FROM INFLUENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...AS GREATER INSTABILITY LIES TO THE N AND S.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 30 TO 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...PULSE STORMS AND BRIEF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN OVERALL DISORGANIZED/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..HURLBUT.. 05/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40027689 39697792 39627901 40027917 40767854 42147736
42617668 42917596 42557524 41687537 40957582 40027689

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