KVEF [030204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 030204
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
704 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM DUST STORM 25 S KINGMAN 34.85N 114.03W
09/02/2007 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

10 VEHICLE ACCIDENT ALONG I-40 DUE TO BLOWING DUST ACROSS
ROADWAY. ALSO, MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAY.

&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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KSGX [030121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 030121
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
620 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM TSTM WND DMG NUEVO 33.81N 117.14W
09/02/2007 RIVERSIDE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN IN THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

JCHASE

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KFGZ [030117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 030117
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
612 PM MST SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG SELIGMAN 35.33N 112.88W
09/02/2007 YAVAPAI AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

TREE UPROOTED AND POWER POLE BROKEN. WINDOW BROKEN OUT OF
GROCERY STORE.

&&

$$

JJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030051
SWODY1
SPC AC 030049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..WRN AZ...
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING WSWWD ACROSS FAR WRN
YAVAPAI AND INTO SRN MOHAVE COUNTIES IN AZ ATTM...WITHIN
HOT/MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK/DISORGANIZED...AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THUS...EXPECT ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MINIMAL.

..SWRN SD...
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE/WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN SWRN SD. LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT WITHIN RADAR LOOP -- SURGING ENEWD AWAY
FROM ONGOING STORMS -- TOWARD SRN PENNINGTON AND ACROSS SHANNON
COUNTIES IN SD. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS OUTFLOW SURGE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

.GOSS.. 09/03/2007

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KUNR [030048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 030048
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
648 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SE FAIRBURN 43.66N 103.16W
09/02/2007 E60 MPH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WFO UNR STAFF

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KUNR [030007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 030007
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E SMITHWICK 43.32N 103.07W
09/02/2007 E60 MPH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

AT LEAST 60 MPH WALL OF WIND.

&&

$$

WFO UNR STAFF

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KBRO [030005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBRO 030005
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM FUNNEL CLOUD MERCEDES 26.15N 97.92W
09/02/2007 HIDALGO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MERCEDES POLICE REPORTED ONE TREE DOWN NEAR TEXAS AND
TENTH STREETS IN THE CITY. NUMEROUS CALLERS REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

BMILLER

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KTBW [022356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 022356
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
755 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N AVON PARK 27.65N 81.50W
09/02/2007 E60 MPH POLK FL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

17

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KCYS [022343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 022343
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 1 NNE CHEYENNE 41.16N 104.78W
09/02/2007 M0.50 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

MOSTLY PEA AND SOME MARBLE HAIL AND OVER 0.50 RAIN FROM
215-250 PM MDT

0215 PM HAIL 1 E CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.77W
09/02/2007 M0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF AND ON PEA HAIL FROM 215-315 PM MDT

&&

$$

JLH

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KBRO [022333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 022333
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM FUNNEL CLOUD MERCEDES 26.15N 97.92W
09/02/2007 HIDALGO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MERCEDES POLICE REPORTED TWO OR THREE TREES DOWN NEAR
TEXAS AND TENTH STREETS IN THE CITY. NUMEROUS CALLERS
REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

BMILLER

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KSGX [022322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 022322
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
422 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM TSTM WND DMG NUEVO 33.81N 117.14W
08/31/2007 RIVERSIDE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN IN THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KSGX [022152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 022152
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
252 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMONA 33.04N 116.87W
09/02/2007 SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES ARE DOWN AND DEBRIS ON SR78 DUE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

$$

NUELITO

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KSGX [022127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 022127
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
227 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM FLASH FLOOD WRIGHTWOOD 34.36N 117.63W
09/02/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING HAVE CAUSED FLOODING IN WRIGHTWOOD. TRUSH AND
VICTORVILLE ROADS ARE WASHED OUT. TACTICAL DISASTER
RESPONSE TAEM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED IN WRIGHTWOOD.

&&

$$

NUELITO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021944
SWODY1
SPC AC 021942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN CA INTO CNTRL/SRN AZ...

MOST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY IS OCCURRING OVER THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SWRN SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES ON WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WHERE SBCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
8.5 C/KM EXTENDING UPWARDS TO 650 MB. GIVEN THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OWING
TO WATER LOADING GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.9 INCHES AS WELL AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

ELSEWHERE...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG/N OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING FROM N-S
ACROSS REGION /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WHICH IS POTENTIALLY
LIMITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND ENCOURAGING ENTRAINMENT IN
GROWING UPDRAFTS. STILL...MODIFICATION OF 12Z TUCSON AND PHOENIX
SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS GIVEN THE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND
RESULTING INVERTED-V PROFILES.

.MEAD.. 09/02/2007

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KLCH [021928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021928
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM WATER SPOUT 23 S GRAND CHENIER 29.43N 92.97W
09/02/2007 GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM EAST CAMERON 47

&&

$$

JNUNN

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KLCH [021927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021927
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM WATER SPOUT 20 S JOHNSON BAYOU 29.48N 93.66W
09/02/2007 GMZ450 TX PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM SABINE 13

&&

$$

JNUNN

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KJAX [021919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021919
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE ARCHER 29.56N 82.44W
09/02/2007 ALACHUA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS POWERLINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ALONG SW ARCHER
ROAD.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KGRR [021808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 021808
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TSTM WND DMG PERRINTON 43.18N 84.68W
08/29/2007 GRATIOT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF
ALGER AND GARFIELD AND M-57 AND LUCE ROAD.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W BANNISTER 43.13N 84.50W
08/29/2007 GRATIOT MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

A TREE TOOK WIRES DOWN EAST OF THE WILSON AND BLAIR ROADS
INTERSECTION

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W EUREKA 43.10N 84.55W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI PUBLIC

2 14 INCH DIAMETER TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS
SIGNS AT UNCLE JOHNS CIDER MILL. NO POWER.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W EUREKA 43.10N 84.55W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI PUBLIC

LARGE 40 YEAR OLD PEAR TREE UPROOTED.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG EUREKA 43.10N 84.51W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD AT WILLIAMS AND MAPLE RAPIDS RD.

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS IN CITY. ALSO REPORTS
OF TRANSFORMERS ARCING.

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

18 INCH DIAMETER HEALTHY TREE BROKEN OFF 6 FEET ABOVE
GROUND AT BUSINESS 27 AND ST JOHNS BYPASS. TIME
ESTIMATED.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG ATHENS 42.09N 85.24W
08/29/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG SONOMA 42.23N 85.22W
08/29/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG OVID 43.00N 84.37W
08/29/2007 CLINTON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

2 TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BURLINGTON 42.13N 85.08W
08/29/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0440 PM HAIL BATTLE CREEK 42.30N 85.23W
08/29/2007 E0.25 INCH CALHOUN MI BROADCAST MEDIA

0450 PM TSTM WND GST MARSHALL 42.26N 84.96W
08/29/2007 E50.00 MPH CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

0458 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S MARSHALL 42.25N 84.96W
08/29/2007 M55.00 MPH CALHOUN MI AWOS

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE MARSHALL 42.22N 84.90W
08/29/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E MARSHALL 42.26N 84.90W
08/29/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0528 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGPORT 42.38N 84.70W
08/29/2007 JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG LESLIE 42.45N 84.43W
08/29/2007 INGHAM MI FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES.

0537 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE PARMA 42.28N 84.58W
08/29/2007 JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ROGERS AND MINER ROADS

0539 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE JACKSON 42.28N 84.35W
08/29/2007 JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN HAWKINS AND ANN ARBOR ROADS

0544 PM TSTM WND DMG EAST LANSING 42.74N 84.48W
08/29/2007 INGHAM MI BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON CARS. TIME ESTIMATED.

0548 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGPORT 42.38N 84.70W
08/29/2007 JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN

0555 PM TSTM WND GST BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
08/29/2007 E50.00 MPH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

0603 PM LIGHTNING 5 NW JACKSON 42.29N 84.47W
08/29/2007 JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

0603 PM TSTM WND DMG BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
08/29/2007 EATON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
08/29/2007 INGHAM MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 99

0645 PM HAIL 1 W HOLT 42.64N 84.55W
08/29/2007 E0.25 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN HOLT 42.64N 84.53W
08/29/2007 E2.50 INCH INGHAM MI EMERGENCY MNGR

8-10 INCHES OF STANDING WATER AT HOLT AND AURELIUS ROADS.

&&
UPDATED TO ADD THE 335 PM REPORT FROM PERRINTON IN GRATIOT COUNTY.
$$

OSTUNO

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KCTP [021758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 021758
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW KEENEYVILLE 41.82N 77.28W
08/30/2007 TIOGA PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST MIDDLEBURY TWP.

0301 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W COVINGTON 41.74N 77.15W
08/30/2007 TIOGA PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN COVINGTON TWP.

0332 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S BLOSSBURG 41.61N 77.07W
08/30/2007 TIOGA PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS LIBERTY TWP.

&&
DELAYED REPORTS FROM AUG 30TH RELAYED VIA THE TIOGA COUNTY 911
CENTER.
$$

STEINBUGL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021715
SWODY2
SPC AC 021714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CANADA
AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION IN PATTERN
FORECAST AS TROUGHS DEEPEN OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND ERN CANADA. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO CNTRL OR ERN SD. WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN ND AND NRN
PARTS OF MN AND WI WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.

..ERN ND INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA MONDAY PRIOR TO MOVING MORE SEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
SSWLY LLJ WHICH WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED
TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO NRN MN.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KT. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH MAY TEND
TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO THE N/NE
OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL LIMITATION...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

.MEAD.. 09/02/2007

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KPSR [021649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 021649
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
949 AM MST SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG GILBERT 33.33N 111.76W
09/01/2007 MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

40 FOOT CONSTRUCTION TRAILER OVERTURNED ON ITS SIDE. 18
INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER. 20-30 TREES 8-10 INCHES IN
DIAMETER INSTANTLY SNAPPED OFF AT TRUNK LEVEL. ALL
HAPPENED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CHANDLER BLVD AND
COOPER ROADS IN GILBERT AZ.

&&

$$

HVASQUEZ

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KPSR [021636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 021636
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
936 AM MST SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG YUMA 32.68N 114.62W
09/02/2007 YUMA AZ NEWSPAPER

UNKNOWN NUMBER OF LARGE TREES...POWER POLES...AND POWER
LINES DOWNED. ASOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 84 MPH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ...1226 AM MST.

&&

$$

HVASQUEZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021619
SWODY1
SPC AC 021616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF SRN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN AZ...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM SRN UT INTO SERN CA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER AZ AND ELY FLOW OVER
SRN CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVELS OVER NRN HALF OF AZ WWD ACROSS THE UPPER DESERTS OF SRN
CA...ALTHOUGH ONLY VERY SMALL DECREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IPW ARE EVIDENT FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA. VERY STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SERN MOUNTAINS OF AZ AS WELL
AS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA. STORMS OVER SRN CA WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE PULSE
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS ON PHX SOUNDING BETWEEN
700-500 MB HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY TO 15-20 KT...WHICH MAY
AID STORMS PROPAGATING OFF THE RIM INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A 5% SEVERE
WIND PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OUTLOOK. ANTICIPATED LOW
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

.WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/02/2007

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KVEF [021546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 021546
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
846 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM FLASH FLOOD YUCCA VALLEY 34.11N 116.43W
09/01/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES. ROADS IMPASSABLE AND
WASHES FILLING.

0305 PM FLASH FLOOD YUCCA VALLEY 34.11N 116.43W
09/01/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT LEAST ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF RAINFALL FROM 145 PM
THROUGH 305 PM. NORTH-SOUTH STREETS WITH ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF FEET OF FLOOD WATER RUNNING DOWN THEM.

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD YUCCA VALLEY 34.11N 116.43W
09/01/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL OF 1.94 INCHES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE AREA.

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD YUCCA VALLEY 34.11N 116.43W
09/01/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOOD WATER AND FILLED WITH DEBRIS CROSSING STATE ROUTE
62 IN SEVERAL PLACES.

&&

$$

CBELL

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KCHS [021359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021359
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM FLOOD RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 BRYAN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINER DRIVE CLOSED AND BLOCKED OFF IN MULBERRY
SUBDIVISION. NUMEROUS STREETS CLOSED IN MAIN STREET,
SOUTH PIERCESIELP, AND MILL HILL AREA OF STRATHY HALL
SUBDIVISIONS.

0950 AM FLOOD RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 BRYAN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER STARTING TO RISE INTO HOUSING IN BELFAST SIDING
AREA OF RICHMOND HILL.

&&

$$

SEK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021253
SWODY1
SPC AC 021251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL THIS
AFTERNOON INVOF THE NEB/SD BORDER...AND THEN LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NEB/IA IS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE...AND INSTABILITY BASED IN THE
800-700 MB LAYER. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. A 30-40 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE
DAKOTAS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD...WITH PRONOUNCED WAA IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND FROM 06-12Z. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEVELOPING
WAA PATTERN...THOUGH UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 58-62 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY OVER ND...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO SRN CA...
RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO INTERIOR SRN CA. WHILE VERY
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
NECESSARILY LARGE 5% WIND PROBABILITY AREA.

..TX TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THIS AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS EVOLVING INTO A TUTT LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND...AND A SMALLER
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE GA COAST. HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND
WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
/MAINLY DIURNAL/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND FL.

.THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 09/02/2007

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KPDT [021158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 021158
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
457 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW BEND 44.05N 121.33W
08/30/2007 DESCHUTES OR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE FELL ON HOUSE.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE TUMALO 44.19N 121.24W
08/30/2007 DESCHUTES OR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS GIFT ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 97.

0550 PM HAIL 1 SW REDMOND 44.25N 121.19W
08/30/2007 E0.75 INCH DESCHUTES OR NEWSPAPER

ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND HEAVY RAINFALL AND STREET
FLOODING

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW REDMOND 44.25N 121.20W
08/30/2007 DESCHUTES OR NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL BRANCHES 2-3 INCHES DIAMETER DOWNED AT CEMETERY.

&&

$$

HULL

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KCHS [021158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021158
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 BRYAN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY WARNING POINT CONTINUES TO REPORT NUMEROUS ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS THE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
RICHMOND HILL. SEVERAL CARS HAVE BEEN STALLED AND
STRANDED DUE TO THE FLOODING WATERS.

&&

$$

33

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KCHS [021014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021014
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
614 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.86W
09/02/2007 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

RAIN WATER COVERING THE ROAD ON WANDO PARK BLVD. ROAD IS
PASSABLE.

&&

$$

33

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KCHS [020954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 020954
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
554 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM HEAVY RAIN SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.93N 81.05W
09/01/2007 M8.64 INCH CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT FROM A SPOTTER FOR A SAVANNAH TELEVISION STATION.

1213 AM HEAVY RAIN RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 M10.17 INCH BRYAN GA BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT FROM A SPOTTER FOR A SAVANNAH TELEVISION STATION.

&&

$$

33

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020848
SWOD48
SPC AC 020848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

..DISCUSSION...
UPR TROUGH OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON TUESDAY WILL GLANCE OFF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE TO THE UPR GRTLKS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND RATE OF
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO VARY AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF AND
UKMET. NONETHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SRN PLAINS NWD AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS...UPR MS VLY AND
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS REGIONS WED THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE PREFERRED ECMWF
SOLUTION...PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING/MASS CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PASS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA...LIMITING THE THREAT
FOR A WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIKELY
CONSIDERABLE WARM SECTOR CINH.

.RACY.. 09/02/2007

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KPSR [020846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 020846
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 AM MST SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1226 AM TSTM WND GST YUMA 32.68N 114.62W
09/02/2007 M84 MPH YUMA AZ ASOS

&&

$$

ESTLE

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KCHS [020843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 020843
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 BRYAN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY WARNING POINT REPORTS THAT SEVERAL ROADS ARE STILL
CLOSED AND UNDER WATER AS RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

33

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020727
SWODY3
SPC AC 020726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY AS
THE NRN PACIFIC TROUGH BODILY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. BACKING MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP
INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE RESIDING OVER THE GRT BASIN...INCREASING
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT A
LEAD WAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR CONVECTION EARLY ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY MODULATE INSTABILITY
VALUES BEFORE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
A RESULT...WHILE TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SVR
POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL ATTM.

.RACY.. 09/02/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020535
SWODY2
SPC AC 020534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY...
PRIMARY WLYS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON LABOR
DAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE TO NRN QUEBEC BY
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THIS IMPULSE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GRTLKS REGION AND THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL EDGE EWD AND REACH
WA/ORE BY 12Z TUE. MINOR PERTURBATIONS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TOP THE RIDGE BEFORE AIDING IN THE EVENTUAL QUEBEC
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION.

AS THE PAC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NWRN U.S. COAST...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ASSOCD WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TIED TO THE
CURRENT CANADIAN IMPULSE...WILL INDUCE ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR
NRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE EML. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NRN/CNTRL MN
ON LABOR DAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. LATE SEASON EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND LOCAL ACCUMULATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VCNTY THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MODEST PEAK
HEATING MLCAPE VALUES. BUT...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE
ABSENT ASIDE FROM LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES DERIVED FROM
THE LLJ. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT...ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
MN...AS OPPOSED TO ALONG THE FRONT/WARM SECTOR WHERE MODEST CINH
WILL BE IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AOA 45 KTS AND
MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD
WCNTRL WI/SERN MN BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

.RACY.. 09/02/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020533
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN RIDGING FROM GREAT
BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN NWD
EXTENSION OF THAT RIDGING...HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO RISE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NRN PLAINS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MB. AS TROUGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS JAMES BAY/FAR NRN ONT AREA TOWARD WRN
QUE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD OVER NRN ONT AND LS.
TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT -- NOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD AND ERN
ND -- IS FCST TO SETTLE SEWD TO WI...SRN MN AND SERN SD BEFORE
STALLING...WHILE RETREATING NWD ACROSS WRN SD AND NERN WY/SERN MT AS
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN MT.

..NRN PLAINS...
STG HEATING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG
SFC FRONT...FROM UPPER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL SD.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH NWWD EXTENT ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER WRN SD INTO ERN MT...WITH SOME DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STG CAPPING...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED LACK OF CONVERGENCE WILL RENDER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR GEN THUNDER FCST ATTM.
INSTEAD....TSTM AREA IS BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION
AND PEAK SLY LLJ OF AROUND 35-45 KT BETWEEN 03/04Z-03/12Z.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS AND HAIL...HOWEVER SVR PROBABILITIES ARE PRECLUDED
BY CONCERNS OVER COVERAGE/DURATION OF CONVECTION AND MEAGER ELEVATED
CAPE.

..SWRN CONUS...GREAT BASIN....
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER BROAD SWATH OF
W-CENTRAL/SWRN STATES TODAY AS STG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON INITIATION.
HOT SFC AIR MASS WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
AGAIN SHOULD CHARACTERIZE LATE AFTERNOON AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS/DESERTS OF AZ AND SRN CA...AND SOME GUSTS APCHG SVR
LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...FCST MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF DRYING AT VARIOUS
LEVELS...INDICATE MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED THREAT FOR SUCH EVENTS
THAN PRIOR DAYS.

..SERN CONUS...GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED..MRGL AND BRIEF TO WARRANT
PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT ATTM. BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF GULF COAST AND ERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. BENEATH THIS
TROUGHING...DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER COAHUILA
MOVES WWD ACROSS NRN MEX...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 60-70 KT UPPER
JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO UVM ACROSS PORTIONS S TX AS WELL.

.EDWARDS.. 09/02/2007

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KCHS [020450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 020450
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 AM FLASH FLOOD N RICHMOND HILL 31.94N 81.30W
09/02/2007 BRYAN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY WARNING POINT REPORTS 10 ROADS STILL CLOSED ACROSS
THE COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

33

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