SWODY1
SPC AC 021942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN CA INTO CNTRL/SRN AZ...
MOST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY IS OCCURRING OVER THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SWRN SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES ON WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WHERE SBCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
8.5 C/KM EXTENDING UPWARDS TO 650 MB. GIVEN THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OWING
TO WATER LOADING GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.9 INCHES AS WELL AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
ELSEWHERE...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG/N OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING FROM N-S
ACROSS REGION /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WHICH IS POTENTIALLY
LIMITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND ENCOURAGING ENTRAINMENT IN
GROWING UPDRAFTS. STILL...MODIFICATION OF 12Z TUCSON AND PHOENIX
SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS GIVEN THE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND
RESULTING INVERTED-V PROFILES.
.MEAD.. 09/02/2007
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