KMQT [210308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 210308
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1108 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
10/20/2011 M47.00 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS SITE ON GRAND MARAIS BREAKWALL

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BIG BAY 46.82N 87.73W
10/20/2011 M38.00 MPH MARQUETTE MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS STATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR BIG BAY

0452 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KINGSFORD 45.81N 88.10W
10/20/2011 M37.00 MPH DICKINSON MI ASOS

AT FORD AIRPORT

0456 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
10/20/2011 M46.00 MPH ALGER MI ASOS

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ESCANABA 45.75N 87.08W
10/20/2011 M35.00 MPH DELTA MI AWOS

AT DELTA COUNTY AIRPORT

0518 AM NON-TSTM WND GST K I SAWYER 46.34N 87.39W
10/20/2011 M44.00 MPH MARQUETTE MI AWOS

AT SAWYER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N IRONWOOD 46.54N 90.13W
10/20/2011 M33.00 MPH GOGEBIC MI AWOS

AT THE IRONWOOD AIRPORT

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 56 NNW FREDA 47.87N 89.31W
10/20/2011 M40.00 MPH LSZ263 MI C-MAN STATION

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/20/2011 M45.00 MPH LSZ266 MI C-MAN STATION

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S ESCANABA 45.73N 87.08W
10/20/2011 M41.00 MPH DELTA MI AWOS

AT THE DELTA COUNTY AIRPORT

1110 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FAIRPORT 45.62N 86.66W
10/20/2011 M38.00 MPH DELTA MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS STATION ON LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR FAIRPORT

1110 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSW CALUMET 47.18N 88.50W
10/20/2011 M40.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS

HANCOCK, HOUGHTON COUNTY MEMORIAL AIRPORT

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/20/2011 M40.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS STATION NEAR PORTAGE CANAL

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KAPX [210306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 210306
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN ALPENA 45.07N 83.44W
10/20/2011 M3.06 INCH ALPENA MI ASOS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN HOUGHTON LAKE 44.30N 84.76W
10/20/2011 M1.11 INCH ROSCOMMON MI ASOS

24 HOUR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN PELLSTON 45.56N 84.78W
10/20/2011 M1.44 INCH EMMET MI ASOS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN GAYLORD 45.03N 84.67W
10/20/2011 M1.04 INCH OTSEGO MI ASOS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW FIFE LAKE 44.56N 85.41W
10/20/2011 M1.15 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N ONAWAY 45.42N 84.23W
10/20/2011 M2.76 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

1056 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE PICKFORD 46.19N 84.32W
10/20/2011 M1.40 INCH CHIPPEWA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210028
SWODY1
SPC AC 210026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO SRN
QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN NY/VT. EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY THAT WAS NOTED
ACROSS THIS REGION HAS WANED AND RETREATED INTO CANADA AND LIGHTNING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 12Z.

..DARROW.. 10/21/2011

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KGRR [210018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210018
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
818 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE BATH 42.84N 84.42W
10/20/2011 M2.25 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KAPX [210002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 210002
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
802 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HEAVY RAIN KELDEN 46.21N 84.31W
10/20/2011 M1.33 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KGRR [202328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202328
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE COMSTOCK PARK 43.06N 85.65W
10/20/2011 M1.98 INCH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [202226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202226
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
626 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN OSHTEMO 42.26N 85.68W
10/20/2011 M2.65 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [202210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202210
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
610 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
10/20/2011 M1.44 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

$$

LAURENS

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KAPX [202209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202209
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
609 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN DRUMMOND ISLAND 46.01N 83.70W
10/20/2011 M1.50 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KDTX [202148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 202148
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W SAGINAW 43.42N 84.05W
10/20/2011 M2.47 INCH SAGINAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL OVER LAST 24 HOURS

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N CAPAC 43.04N 82.93W
10/20/2011 M2.26 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL OVER LAST 30 HOURS

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN OAKLEY 43.14N 84.17W
10/20/2011 M2.50 INCH SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

RKULIK

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KGRR [202137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202137
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
537 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E MUSKEGON 43.22N 86.15W
10/20/2011 M1.39 INCH MUSKEGON MI AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [202136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202136
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
536 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
10/20/2011 M2.12 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KIWX [202124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 202124
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
524 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN COLUMBUS GROVE 40.92N 84.06W
10/20/2011 M2.78 INCH PUTNAM OH TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH 400 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101418

$$

NDM

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KDTX [202055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 202055
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
454 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE CROSWELL 43.23N 82.57W
10/20/2011 M2.42 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 0700

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN PORT HOPE 43.94N 82.72W
10/20/2011 M2.31 INCH HURON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

RKULIK

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KLOT [202050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLOT 202050
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
349 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N CHICAGO 41.90N 87.63W
10/19/2011 COOK IL NEWSPAPER

WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF A BUILDING NEAR
WABASH AND CHICAGO AVENUE. REPORT RELAYED FROM THE ONLINE
TRIBUNE.

0400 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M40.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT 63RD ST BEACH WEATHER
STATION.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/19/2011 M59.00 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

51 KT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER CRIB. SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 43 KT...OR 50 MPH.

0410 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BURNS HARBOR 41.61N 87.13W
10/19/2011 M45.00 MPH PORTER IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

BHRI3 GLOS WEATHER STATION

0700 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M43.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT OAK ST BEACH WEATHER
STATION.

0700 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M40.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT 63RD STREET BEACH
WEATHER STATION.

0710 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M58.00 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

50 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT WAUKEGAN HARBOR GLOS WEATHER
STATION.

0729 PM HIGH SUST WINDS WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

RECORDED AT WAUKEGAN HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

0745 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/19/2011 M61.00 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

53 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER CRIB.

0800 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

63RD STREET BEACH - CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT WEATHER
STATION.

0954 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M59.00 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

DELAYED REPORT. 51 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT WHRI2...WAUKEGAN
HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY 20 BOATS BROKE FREE OF
MOORINGS AT MONROE HARBOR DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND WAVES AND
WASHED AGAINST BREAKWALL...SOME SANK. RELAYED FROM
CHICAGO TRIBUNE ONLINE.

1240 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
10/20/2011 PORTER IN PARK/FOREST SRVC

DELAYED REPORT. 3 TREES DOWN AT INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK.
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON TIME OF MAXIMUM WIND GUST AT
BURNS HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/20/2011 M61.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

DELAYED REPORT. RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT OAK
STREET BEACH WEATHER STATION. SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 54
MPH.

0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/20/2011 M64.00 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

DELAYED REPORT. 56 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER
CRIB.

0754 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW DYER 41.51N 87.52W
10/20/2011 M2.50 INCH LAKE IN COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL SO FAR. TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [201958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 201958
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M59.00 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

DELAYED REPORT. 51 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT WHRI2...WAUKEGAN
HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY 20 BOATS BROKE FREE OF
MOORINGS AT MONROE HARBOR DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND WAVES AND
WASHED AGAINST BREAKWALL...SOME SANK. RELAYED FROM
CHICAGO TRIBUNE ONLINE.

1240 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
10/20/2011 PORTER IN PARK/FOREST SRVC

DELAYED REPORT. 3 TREES DOWN AT INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK.
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON TIME OF MAXIMUM WIND GUST AT
BURNS HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/20/2011 M61.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

DELAYED REPORT. RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT OAK
STREET BEACH WEATHER STATION. SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 54
MPH.

0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/20/2011 M64.00 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

DELAYED REPORT. 56 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER
CRIB.

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201945
SWODY1
SPC AC 201943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR NERN NY/NWRN VT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DEEP
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS NRN NY/VT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE TO AROUND 250 J PER KG/. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA...A SMALL GENERAL
TSTM AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK FOR FAR NERN NY INTO
NWRN VT. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SHORT DURATION AS THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ADVANCES NNEWD...WITH THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AFTER
22Z. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/20/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD...AS A 140+ KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX
SPREADS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD INTO NOVA SCOTIA. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH
NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT OCCLUDE AS IT OVERTAKES A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SRN NY/CT EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MORNING
CONVECTION IN UPSTATE NY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE MUCAPES AROUND 250 J/KG...
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MOST CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY TO BE TALL ENOUGH FOR ELECTRICAL DISCHARGES. WHILE AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR A 10 PERCENT THUNDER AREA.

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200524
SWODY1
SPC AC 200522

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN U.S...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY
WITH UPWARDS OF 180M EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-00Z AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
INTO SRN ONTARIO. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY WHERE PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID
60S BY LATE MORNING COULD YIELD SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM BY WHICH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST BUOYANT PARCELS WILL
BE ROOTED AROUND 850-800MB AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY
BEFORE 18Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

..DARROW/DEAN.. 10/20/2011

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KDTX [200515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 200515
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW GRAND BLANC 42.96N 83.66W
10/20/2011 M1.28 INCH GENESEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

BT

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KAPX [200402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 200402
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1202 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OSCODA 44.42N 83.33W
10/19/2011 M49.00 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

MEASURED AT THE OSCODA-WURTSMITH AIRPORT.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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