SWODY1
SPC AC 200522
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN U.S...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY
WITH UPWARDS OF 180M EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-00Z AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
INTO SRN ONTARIO. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY WHERE PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID
60S BY LATE MORNING COULD YIELD SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM BY WHICH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST BUOYANT PARCELS WILL
BE ROOTED AROUND 850-800MB AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY
BEFORE 18Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
..DARROW/DEAN.. 10/20/2011
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