DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201945
SWODY1
SPC AC 201943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR NERN NY/NWRN VT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DEEP
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS NRN NY/VT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE TO AROUND 250 J PER KG/. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA...A SMALL GENERAL
TSTM AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK FOR FAR NERN NY INTO
NWRN VT. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SHORT DURATION AS THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ADVANCES NNEWD...WITH THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AFTER
22Z. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/20/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD...AS A 140+ KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX
SPREADS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD INTO NOVA SCOTIA. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH
NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT OCCLUDE AS IT OVERTAKES A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SRN NY/CT EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MORNING
CONVECTION IN UPSTATE NY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE MUCAPES AROUND 250 J/KG...
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MOST CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY TO BE TALL ENOUGH FOR ELECTRICAL DISCHARGES. WHILE AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR A 10 PERCENT THUNDER AREA.

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