Tuesday, October 2, 2012

KOTX [030321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 030321
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
821 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S HUNTERS 48.10N 118.20W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE. 27 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE DOVER 48.20N 116.57W
10/02/2012 BONNER ID UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE. 243 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0548 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CLAYTON 47.99N 117.56W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

TREE ON POWER LINE.85 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0633 PM DUST STORM 2 NE PULLMAN 46.75N 117.13W
10/02/2012 WHITMAN WA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1 MILE VISIBILITY ON KPUW METAR


&&

$$

RMILLER

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KPDT [030310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 030310
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
810 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM DUST STORM 8 WNW CONNELL 46.71N 119.02W
10/02/2012 FRANKLIN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER DRIVING FROM OTHELLO TO SCOOTENEY PARK
RESERVOIR ON WASHINGTON STATE ROUTE 17 REPORTED ESTIMATED
40 MPH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST LOWERING VISIBILITY TO 1/2
MILE AT TIMES.


&&

$$

GP

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KOHX [030249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 030249
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.49W
10/01/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

BEDFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE SHELBYVILLE
TIMES-GAZETTE REPORTED WIND DAMAGE FROM A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN SHELBYVILLE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE
BLOWN DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PARKER ROAD ACROSS RABBIT
BRANCH ROAD TO DOW ROAD. ONE OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED
ON DOW ROAD.

0507 PM TORNADO 5 NNW AUBURNTOWN 36.01N 86.14W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF KNIGHT CREEK ROAD AND GREENVALE ROAD
NEAR STATESVILLE THEN MOVED NORTHEAST BEFORE ENDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH INCLUDED ONE MOBILE HOME SLIDING
OFF ITS FOUNDATION...FOUR SHEDS LOFTED OR ROLLED AND
DESTROYED...AND ALUMINUM ROOFING THAT WAS BLOWN HUNDREDS
OF YARDS. MULTIPLE TREES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE
PATH.

0532 PM TORNADO 6 NNE WATERTOWN 36.18N 86.09W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 IN THE GRANT COMMUNITY BEFORE ENDING NEAR HIGHWAY
141. DAMAGE INCLUDED NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN OVER OR
SNAPPED WITH SOME UNDERCARRIAGE DAMAGE AT A MOBILE HOME
ON SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD.

0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W JAMESTOWN 36.43N 85.06W
10/02/2012 M3.43 INCH FENTRESS TN COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE LEBANON 36.23N 86.25W
10/02/2012 M3.11 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200074 OHX1200073 OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
OHX1200075 OHX1200076

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KOHX [030227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 030227
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.49W
10/01/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

BEDFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE SHELBYVILLE
TIMES-GAZETTE REPORTED WIND DAMAGE FROM A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN SHELBYVILLE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE
BLOWN DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PARKER ROAD ACROSS RABBIT
BRANCH ROAD TO DOW ROAD. ONE OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED
ON DOW ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200074

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KPDT [030224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 030224
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
724 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 PM DUST STORM 1 NE WALLA WALLA 46.08N 118.33W
10/02/2012 WALLA WALLA WA ASOS

WALLA WALLA AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED 3/4 MILE VISIBILITY DUE
TO BLOWING DUST. WINDS WERE NORTH AT 18 MPH GUSTING TO 29
MPH.


&&

$$

GP

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KPDT [030218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 030218
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
717 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM DUST STORM 5 NNE RICHLAND 46.36N 119.26W
10/02/2012 FRANKLIN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

WEATHER SPOTTER LOCATED ALONG THE BANKS OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER REPORTED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3/4 OF A MILE DUE TO
BLOWING DUST. SPOTTER REPORTED 10 MPH WINDS BUT NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS WERE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.


&&

$$

GP

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KOTX [022344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 022344
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
444 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG KETTLE FALLS 48.61N 118.06W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

TREE ON POWER LINE. 569 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0212 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SSW COLVILLE 48.48N 117.96W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

POWER LINE DOWN. 152 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NNW FRUITLAND 48.07N 118.20W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

POWER LINE DOWN. 27 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.

0328 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEAVENWORTH 47.59N 120.66W
10/02/2012 CHELAN WA UTILITY COMPANY

BIG PINE TREE DAMAGED 5 POWER POLES AND LINE ALONG
HIGHWAY 2 AND ICICLE RD. HIGHWAY 2 CLOSED TEMPORARILY DUE
TO DOWNED POWER LINE. 800 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER.

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE CHEWELAH 48.27N 117.72W
10/02/2012 STEVENS WA UTILITY COMPANY

DOWNED POWER LINE. 206 CUSTOMERS AFFECTED.


&&

$$

RMILLER

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KBMX [022239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 022239
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 AM TORNADO 6 SSW ROCKFORD 32.81N 86.26W
10/01/2012 F0 COOSA AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN COOSA COUNTY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE PENTONVILLE...UPROOTING SEVERAL PINES AND OAK TREES
SPORADICALLY ALONG THE PATH. ONE LARGE OAK FELL INTO A
SMALL BARN AND A COUPLE OF OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO PATH
WAS 0.5 MILES LONG AND 150 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST
POINT. WIND SPEEDS WERE ESTIMTATED AT 75-85 MPH.

0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.


&&

$$

JDEBLOCK

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KOHX [022120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 022120
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TORNADO 5 NNW AUBURNTOWN 36.01N 86.14W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF KNIGHT CREEK ROAD AND GREENVALE ROAD
NEAR STATESVILLE THEN MOVED NORTHEAST BEFORE ENDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH INCLUDED ONE MOBILE HOME SLIDING
OFF ITS FOUNDATION...FOUR SHEDS LOFTED OR ROLLED AND
DESTROYED...AND ALUMINUM ROOFING THAT WAS BLOWN HUNDREDS
OF YARDS. MULTIPLE TREES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE
PATH.

0532 PM TORNADO 6 NNE WATERTOWN 36.18N 86.09W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 IN THE GRANT COMMUNITY BEFORE ENDING NEAR HIGHWAY
141. DAMAGE INCLUDED NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN OVER OR
SNAPPED WITH SOME UNDERCARRIAGE DAMAGE AT A MOBILE HOME
ON SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD.

0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200073 OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071

$$

TB12

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KOHX [022117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOHX 022117
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM TORNADO 6 NNE WATERTOWN 36.18N 86.09W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 IN THE GRANT COMMUNITY BEFORE ENDING NEAR HIGHWAY
141. DAMAGE INCLUDED NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN OVER OR
SNAPPED WITH SOME UNDERCARRIAGE DAMAGE AT A MOBILE HOME
ON SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...EVENT...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072

$$

TB12

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KOHX [022113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOHX 022113
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
412 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TORNADO 5 NNW AUBURNTOWN 36.01N 86.14W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF KNIGHT CREEK ROAD AND GREENVALE ROAD
NEAR STATESVILLE THEN MOVED NORTHEAST BEFORE ENDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH INCLUDED ONE MOBILE HOME SLIDING
OFF ITS FOUNDATION...FOUR SHEDS LOFTED OR ROLLED AND
DESTROYED...AND ALUMINUM ROOFING THAT WAS BLOWN HUNDREDS
OF YARDS. MULTIPLE TREES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE
PATH.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...EVENT...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200073

$$

TB12

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KFFC [022104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 022104
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD GAINESVILLE 34.30N 83.83W
10/01/2012 HALL GA 911 CALL CENTER

TWO INTERSECTIONS IN DOWNTOWN GAINESVILLE WERE CLOSED DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROAD. THE INTERSECTIONS WERE JESSE
JEWELL PARKWAY AND MAIN STREET AND PART OF MLK ROAD.

1015 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW GAINESVILLE 34.32N 83.85W
10/01/2012 HALL GA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HALL COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT REPORTED SOME GRAVEL ROADS
WASHED OUT ALONG WITH SOME ROAD CLOSURES NORTHWEST OF
GAINESVILLE. ROADS CLOSED WERE...BEN LEE ROAD....AND
HIGHWAY 60 NW OF GAINESVILLE.

0115 AM FLASH FLOOD HELEN 34.70N 83.73W
10/02/2012 WHITE GA 911 CALL CENTER

WHITE COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF WATER FLOWING INTO
THE TROLL TAVERN DINING ROOM IN HELEN. THERE WERE ALSO
REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN HELEN FROM WATER OVER THE
ROADS. THE EXPRESS MART ON SOUTH HWY 129 ALSO HAD SOME
FLOODING.

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 W HELEN 34.70N 83.75W
10/02/2012 WHITE GA 911 CALL CENTER

MINI COOPER DROVE INTO TWO FEET OF STANDING WATER ON
HIGHWAY 17 JUST WEST OF HELEN. THE DRIVER HAD TO BE
RESCUSED.


&&

$$

AGIBBS

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KGSP [021959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 021959
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM FUNNEL CLOUD DENVER 35.53N 81.03W
10/02/2012 LINCOLN NC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE DENVER AREA.
ALSO...BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
/ROARING/ WINDS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 150 AND
I-77 IN MOORESVILLE AROUND 1125 AM...BUT NO DAMAGE WAS
OBSERVED.


&&

$$

LANE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021943
SWODY1
SPC AC 021941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD.
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...POOR MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WEAK FORCING...AND MODERATE DEEP SHEAR PARALLELING THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LINE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR HTS. MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND POOR
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY TEMPER THE THREAT DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP SPEED SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
SETUP IS STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR A COUPLE OF ROTATING STORMS...BUT
INDIVIDUAL HAZARD RISKS APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012/

...MID/UPPER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY VEERING TO THE SW WITH TIME. LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN REMOVED FROM MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS AND SE VA...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NWD PROGRESSING
WEDGE FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS WRN NC INTO CNTRL VA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY
LIMIT COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES 1.75-2.25 INCHES AND ADEQUATE SWLY MEAN FLOW AROUND 30 KT MAY
LEAD TO A SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUST.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL KY/SRN IND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
...BRINGING A WARM FRONT N ACROSS OH/WV. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S WILL
LEAD TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000
J/KG. BACKED E/SE SFC WINDS WITH STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KT
WILL FAVOR A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED...WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS.
HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

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KLWX [021910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021910
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM FLOOD 2 NE UNIONVILLE 39.49N 77.15W
10/02/2012 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER

ROAD CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MD ROUTE 31 AND
OAK ORCHARD RD DUE TO WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201361

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021907
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLOOD 1 NE FINKSBURG 39.50N 76.88W
10/02/2012 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER

ROAD CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EMERY RD AND
HOLLINGSWORTH RD DUE TO WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201360

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021903
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLOOD 2 SE LISBON 39.31N 77.05W
10/02/2012 HOWARD MD 911 CALL CENTER

ROAD CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BUSHY PARK RD AND
CARRS MILL RD DUE TO WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201359

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021900
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM FLOOD 2 SW POPLAR SPRINGS 39.32N 77.13W
10/02/2012 HOWARD MD 911 CALL CENTER

ROAD CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SHAFFERS MILL RD
AND SHAFFERSVILLE RD DUE TO WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201358

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021854
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLOOD 3 E LAYTONSVILLE 39.21N 77.09W
10/02/2012 MONTGOMERY MD 911 CALL CENTER

A PORTION OF ZION RD WAS CLOSED NORTH OF GREG RD DUE TO
4-6 FT OF WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201357

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021852
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLOOD 1 SSE GARRETT PARK 39.03N 77.09W
10/02/2012 MONTGOMERY MD 911 CALL CENTER

A PORTION OF BEACH RD BETWEEN CEDAR LN AND FRANKLIN ST
WAS CLOSED DUE TO WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201356

$$

CJL

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KTFX [021848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021848
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1248 PM MDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
10/02/2012 M55 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

55 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT JUDITH PEAK.


&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [021846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021846
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1245 PM MDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE GEYSER 47.25N 110.48W
10/02/2012 M55 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT GEYSER.


&&

$$

NJL

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KFFC [021800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 021800
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYSVILLE 34.25N 83.56W
10/01/2012 JACKSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

JACKSON COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF A FEW TREES DOWN
IN THE MAYSVILLE AREA. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

AGIBBS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021718
SWODY2
SPC AC 021716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE WRN
GULF COAST WILL EJECT NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES DIGS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A SHARP COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE LATTER TROUGH WILL SWEEP S/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN
THE EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY E OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...NORTHEAST...
MEAGER BUOYANCY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
NOT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...POOR
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY...
DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...POST-FRONTAL/ELEVATED TSTMS MAY FORM THU NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL SATURATION NEAR 700 MB. BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SCANT BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2012

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KLWX [021638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021638
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1238 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM FLOOD 2 NNW GAITHERSBURG 39.16N 77.23W
10/02/2012 MONTGOMERY MD 911 CALL CENTER

A PORTION OF GAME PRESERVE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201355

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021635
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1235 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1234 PM FLOOD 1 E GERMANTOWN 39.18N 77.24W
10/02/2012 MONTGOMERY MD 911 CALL CENTER

A PORTION OF FREDERICK ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201354

$$

CJL

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KLWX [021551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 021551
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1151 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1148 AM FLOOD 2 SE CULPEPER 38.44N 77.98W
10/02/2012 CULPEPER VA 911 CALL CENTER

WATER ACROSS ROADWAY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MOUNT
PONY ROAD AND ROUTE 3.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201353

$$

CJL

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KFFC [021428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 021428
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMER 34.33N 83.50W
10/01/2012 BANKS GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE BANKS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORTS OF
SEVERAL DOWNED TREES IN AND NEAR THE HOMER
AREA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN HOMER AND HIGHWAY 441.


&&

$$

TDP

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KGSP [021417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 021417
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW EARL 35.18N 81.55W
10/02/2012 CLEVELAND NC TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN


&&

$$

LG

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KTBW [021415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 021415
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1015 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E SAINT PETERSBURG 27.77N 82.63W
10/02/2012 M39 MPH PINELLAS FL ASOS

ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT ASOS KSPG REPORTED A 34 KNOT WIND
GUST.


&&

$$

JCM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2018

ACUS11 KWNS 021341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021341
NCZ000-SCZ000-021515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL SC AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021341Z - 021515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NC AND N CENTRAL/NWRN SC ATTM...WITH ONE
EMBEDDED STORM OVER CHEROKEE CO SC WHICH HAS ACQUIRED LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THIS PARTICULAR STORM
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT -- WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING ENHANCED
SHEAR/VORTICITY. ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OVERALL HOWEVER...DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGER-SCALE
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WELL W OF THIS AREA
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE DOWNSTREAM -- I.E. ACROSS VA
AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER...WITH SHEAR
PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THUS -- DESPITE THE LOCALIZED/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS/HART.. 10/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35548169 35718064 35298001 34558031 34458165 35058163
35548169

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021236
SWODY1
SPC AC 021234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY...WHILE FARTHER W...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DIG SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
AN OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE KY/IND BORDER THIS
MORNING WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY AS IT LIFTS NWD
TOWARD LAKE MI. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SC/GA/NRN FL...WHILE
A WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...MID/UPPER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS SWD FROM
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO NRN FL THIS MORNING...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL
STORM CLUSTERS ARE MOVING NWD ACROSS NC. SELY SURFACE WINDS
JUXTAPOSED WITH A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY JET IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS OVER VA INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH WEAK BUOYANCY WILL RESULT IN A
VERY MARGINAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
EXPERIENCES RAPID WEAKENING BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...PW VALUES FROM
1.75-2.0 INCHES...MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG AND 30 KT
MEAN SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG/SVR MULTICELLS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N OVER THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...MID TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT
NWD INTO THE REGION...AND WILL AID IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREADING N-NEWD ACROSS WV
AND OH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING BACKED OUT OF THE E-SE...SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL WILL BE WEAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE FILLS...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
REGION /0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE NEAR 60 KT/...AND WILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW DUE TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MARGINAL CAPE/LAPSE RATES.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/02/2012

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KBMX [021225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KBMX 021225
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 AM TORNADO 6 SSW ROCKFORD 32.81N 86.24W
10/01/2012 F0 COOSA AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY IN ELMORE COUNTY CAUSING
MINIMAL TREE DAMAGE THEN TRAVELED INTO COOSA COUNTY. IN
COOSA COUNTY, THE TORNADO DROPPED SOME LARGE PINES, THEN
A LARGE OAK, WHICH FELL INTO A SMALL BARN AND A COUPLE OF
OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO PATH WAS 0.5 MILES LONG AND 150
YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. WIND SPEEDS WERE
ESTIMTATED AT 75-85 MPH.

0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.


&&

$$

SUNGER

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KTFX [021202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021202
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
602 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
10/02/2012 M60 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET


&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KGSP [021009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 021009
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W ANDERSON 34.52N 82.66W
10/02/2012 ANDERSON SC BROADCAST MEDIA

DAMAGE TO 5 OR 6 HOMES IN SUBDIVISION OFF HIGHWAY 28
BY-PASS...MONITOR DR/KINGSBORO RD AREA. SEVERAL TREES
DOWN.


&&

$$

MOORE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020853
SWOD48
SPC AC 020852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS FORCING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. WHILE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG/BEHIND THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/02/2012

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