MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2018

ACUS11 KWNS 021341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021341
NCZ000-SCZ000-021515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL SC AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021341Z - 021515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NC AND N CENTRAL/NWRN SC ATTM...WITH ONE
EMBEDDED STORM OVER CHEROKEE CO SC WHICH HAS ACQUIRED LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THIS PARTICULAR STORM
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT -- WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING ENHANCED
SHEAR/VORTICITY. ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OVERALL HOWEVER...DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGER-SCALE
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WELL W OF THIS AREA
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE DOWNSTREAM -- I.E. ACROSS VA
AND THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER...WITH SHEAR
PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THUS -- DESPITE THE LOCALIZED/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS/HART.. 10/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35548169 35718064 35298001 34558031 34458165 35058163
35548169

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