Wednesday, October 12, 2011

KDVN [130221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130221
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
921 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW CEDAR RAPIDS 41.98N 91.70W
10/12/2011 M1.55 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH 9PM CDT.


&&

$$

DC

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KHGX [130142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 130142
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW CLEVELAND 30.38N 95.10W
10/12/2011 SAN JACINTO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG CLEVELAND 30.34N 95.08W
10/12/2011 LIBERTY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** AT FM2285 AND FM2286 TREE FELL ON MOBILE
HOME INJURING ONE WOMAN.

0535 PM TSTM WND GST CLEVELAND 30.34N 95.08W
10/12/2011 M61.00 MPH LIBERTY TX AWOS

0546 PM TSTM WND DMG TARKINGTON PRAIRIE 30.33N 94.96W
10/12/2011 LIBERTY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POWER OUT IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

GHAFELE

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KDVN [130139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130139
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
839 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS 41.95N 91.66W
10/12/2011 M2.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DC

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KTSA [130132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 130132
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM TORNADO 2 NW BERRYVILLE 36.39N 93.59W
10/12/2011 CARROLL AR EMERGENCY MNGR

BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED IN AN OPEN FIELD NEAR BERRYVILLE.
NO DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

MAT

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KDVN [130132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130132
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
832 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
10/12/2011 M1.00 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 3PM CDT.


&&

$$

DC

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KSGF [130120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 130120
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 PM HAIL SPOKANE 36.87N 93.30W
10/12/2011 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

KURTZ

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KLSX [130058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 130058
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
758 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [130043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 130043
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
743 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM HAIL 3 SE ST. MARTINS 38.56N 92.30W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130039
SWODY1
SPC AC 130038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS APPEARS MINIMAL
THIS EVENING AND UNLIKELY TO INCREASE TONIGHT.

...SRN MO/FAR NRN AR...
POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -17 C AT
500 MB IN SGF RAOB/ HAS YIELDED A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM. THIS MAY STILL FOSTER SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH SCATTERED CELLS/CLUSTERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE OZARK PLATEAU. BUT WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUED DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER MCS...SUGGEST TSTMS
SHOULD LARGELY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2011

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KSGF [130036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 130036
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 PM HAIL 4 SE CLEVER 36.99N 93.42W
10/12/2011 E1.25 INCH STONE MO PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS HAIL BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZE...LASTED APPROXIMATELY 5-10 MINUTES.


&&

$$

KURTZ

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KDVN [130036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130036
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
736 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.58W
10/12/2011 M2.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

DC

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KSGF [130014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 130014
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HAIL REPUBLIC 37.12N 93.48W
10/12/2011 E0.75 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KDVN [130002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130002
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 PM HEAVY RAIN IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIR 41.63N 91.55W
10/12/2011 M2.29 INCH JOHNSON IA ASOS


&&

$$

DC

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KSGF [130002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 130002
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0644 PM HAIL HALLTOWN 37.19N 93.63W
10/12/2011 E1.00 INCH LAWRENCE MO AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KTSA [130000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 130000
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 2 NE BEAVER 36.49N 93.74W
10/12/2011 E1.00 INCH CARROLL AR TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AT HOLIDAY ISLAND


&&

$$

BAS

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KDVN [122355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDVN 122355
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N MARENGO 41.85N 92.07W
10/12/2011 M1.13 INCH IOWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [122354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122354
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N MARENGO 41.85N 92.07W
10/12/2011 E1.13 INCH IOWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [122347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122347
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW CEDAR RAPIDS 41.98N 91.70W
10/12/2011 M1.20 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [122342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122342
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HEAVY RAIN WILLIAMSBURG 41.67N 92.01W
10/12/2011 M1.47 INCH IOWA IA CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.


&&

$$

DC

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KSGF [122317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 122317
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM HAIL LAMPE 36.56N 93.44W
10/12/2011 E0.75 INCH STONE MO PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KSGF [122312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 122312
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM HAIL 5 W EL DORADO SPRINGS 37.88N 94.11W
10/12/2011 E1.00 INCH VERNON MO PUBLIC

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KDVN [122304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122304
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
604 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0603 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW BELLE PLAINE 41.89N 92.28W
10/12/2011 M1.05 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT.


&&

$$

BILLN

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KSGF [122228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 122228
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 1 E MONETT 36.92N 93.91W
10/12/2011 E0.75 INCH BARRY MO PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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KDVN [122213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122213
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW DUBUQUE 42.52N 90.76W
10/12/2011 M1.20 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.


&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [122212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122212
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
512 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0459 PM HAIL 2 N MEMPHIS 40.49N 92.17W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH SCOTLAND MO PUBLIC

PUBLIC TRAVELING NORTH OF THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN. REPORT RELAYED BY KMEM-FM.


&&

$$

DC

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KDLH [122151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122151
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
451 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL ELY 47.91N 91.85W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RS

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KDLH [122148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122148
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
448 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM HAIL ELY 47.91N 91.85W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RS

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KDLH [122132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122132
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 1 E ELY 47.91N 91.83W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

RS

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KDLH [122108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122108
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL SAGINAW 46.86N 92.44W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

HLUCHAN

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KDLH [122053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122053
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL HERMANTOWN 46.81N 92.24W
10/12/2011 M0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0347 PM HAIL CLOQUET 46.73N 92.49W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0315 PM HAIL PROCTOR 46.74N 92.23W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM HAIL TWIG 46.89N 92.36W
10/12/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

HLUCHAN

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KDLH [122050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122050
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
10/12/2011 M0.50 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0.4 INCH HAIL AT NWS DULUTH OFFICE


&&

$$

HLUCHAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2252

ACUS11 KWNS 122046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122046
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS....FAR NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122046Z - 122145Z

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS...AND FAR NERN OK...WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS
TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AMPLE CLEARING FROM ERN KS/OK INTO
WRN MO IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO THE UPPER 70S. COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-16 DEG C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TOP SOUNDING/ ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HAS YIELDED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG/. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE FOCUSED ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM
30 ENE CDJ TO 20 ESE OJC TO 30 WSW GMJ AT 20Z...AND FURTHER AIDED BY
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW DECREASES MARKEDLY
OVER WRN MO TO THE E OF THE UPPER JET...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND ANY SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE SVR HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39269262 38389296 36889374 36569451 36289499 36499542
37169539 38459509 39059473 39459432 40089369 40219339
39999290 39269262

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KDMX [122043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 122043
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 E WEBSTER CITY 42.46N 93.62W
10/12/2011 HAMILTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE SMALL FUNNEL CLOUDS NOTED.


&&

$$

SKOW

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KDLH [122001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 122001
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL ASKOV 46.19N 92.78W
10/12/2011 E1.00 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO RECEIVED 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 10 MIN.


&&

$$

HLUCHAN

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KCYS [121947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 121947
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
147 PM MDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1124 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N CENTENNIAL 41.38N 106.11W
10/12/2011 E60 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

ALSO WIND GUST 63 MPH AT 1024 AM MDT.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121932
SWODY1
SPC AC 121930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF ERN KS...NERN
OK...WRN MO...AND NWRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN MS...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE
WHETHER SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE STILL
JUSTIFIED DUE TO THE GENERALLY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AND THE
LIMITED ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE STORM REPORTS. BUT THE
1630Z IS BEING MAINTAINED...AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

..KERR.. 10/12/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011/

...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE OZARKS...

HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF
NEGATIVELY TILTED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO THE MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.

COUPLING OF DCVA ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT
ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE REGIME...TWO REGIONS MAY
HAVE A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FIRST AREA
IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN KS AND NERN OK INTO WRN MO AND
NWRN AR. HERE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S WILL ALIGN WITH STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG WRN
EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD AND STEADILY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES TO
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FIELD AND RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF STORM ORGANIZATION...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SECOND AREA OF GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FROM
PORTIONS OF ERN TX EWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL LA INTO WRN MS. HERE...THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF RESIDUAL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STORM
ACTIVITY. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS POINTS
TO THE N...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MOIST AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED BY EXIT REGION OF MIDLEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD.
AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...ERN NC INTO THE TIDEWATER...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER ERN NC WITHIN A MOIST AND
WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT VAD DATA INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. HOWEVER...ELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NWD WILL
MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME
STORM ROTATION AND A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

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KDMX [121927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 121927
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
227 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 PM LIGHTNING MELCHER-DALLAS 41.23N 93.24W
10/12/2011 MARION IA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MINIMAL DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

SKOW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2251

ACUS11 KWNS 121857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121856
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN LA INTO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121856Z - 122000Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NERN LA THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN
MS. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WHICH PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/
INCREASED WIND THREAT...THEN A WW WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AIR MASS ACROSS LA
INTO SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MS IS MARGINALLY-MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
500 TO AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN LA SINCE 1745Z...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WEAK WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NRN LA TO WRN MS ARE TENDING TO RESULT IN WEAKER UPDRAFTS
WITH MINIMAL ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EWD INTO MS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WWD FROM AL INTO MS
IS MAINTAINING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS EVIDENT BY THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD. THUS...EVEN IF STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED OVER
NERN LA...THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31329332 32329262 32979200 33189100 33089018 32198996
31069025 31029172 31089315 31329332

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KMPX [121756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121756
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL PRESCOTT 44.75N 92.79W
10/12/2011 M0.88 INCH PIERCE WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121728
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1228 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
10/12/2011 M0.75 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121727
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM HAIL BROOKLYN CENTER 45.07N 93.32W
10/12/2011 M0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

52 MPH WIND GUST ALSO NOTED.


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121727
SWODY2
SPC AC 121726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A BELT OF STRONG FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMERGING FROM THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.

ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING
EASTWARD...THEN GRADUALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECEDING THE FORMER FEATURE...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAKER IMPULSE MAY LIFT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN A
BROADER SCALE DIFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AXIS.

FAVORABLE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT MUCH BEYOND WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WITH
CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER ALSO SLOWING DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ALSO A LIMITING
FACTOR...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND
SEEMS LOW MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...CNTRL/ERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SRN VIRGINIA...
SOME GUIDANCE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR...HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A STRONGER LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH...TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...AND STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW FIELDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS... IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE
FOR SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE IN FORTHCOMING OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

..KERR.. 10/12/2011

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KMPX [121724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121724
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1224 PM HAIL ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
10/12/2011 M0.25 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2250

ACUS11 KWNS 121723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121722
NCZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121722Z - 121845Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS FAR ERN NC.
ISOLATED THREATS EXIST FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADO...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A WW.

AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER ERN
JONES COUNTY NC ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION /MULTICELLS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS/. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER SERN NC WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE OVER
EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A SMALL MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THESE LATTER
AREAS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID STRONGER
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS /AS INDICATED BY JONES COUNTY STORM/.

MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE PRODUCTION TODAY. THUS...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE
GREATER THREATS. THE LATTER WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE-3 KM CAPE
VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG COMBINED WITH SURFACE VORTICITY IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FAVORING LOW LEVEL STRETCHING.

..PETERS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34967794 35487728 36027632 36257548 35737523 34907557
34417672 33927768 33757797 33797848 34107875 34657837
34967794

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KMPX [121708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121708
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1208 PM HAIL HOPKINS 44.93N 93.41W
10/12/2011 M0.25 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121706
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 AM HAIL 1 SE FARMINGTON 44.65N 93.16W
10/12/2011 M0.50 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121705
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.43W
10/12/2011 M0.25 INCH SCOTT MN NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121704
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HAIL BURNSVILLE 44.76N 93.28W
10/12/2011 M0.25 INCH DAKOTA MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KMPX [121703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121703
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HAIL SW ELLENDALE 43.87N 93.30W
10/12/2011 M0.50 INCH STEELE MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DEVINNY

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KOUN [121701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 121701
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM TSTM WND GST GOODLETT 34.33N 99.88W
10/11/2011 E60 MPH HARDEMAN TX PUBLIC

1115 PM HAIL 2 S RAYLAND 34.04N 99.48W
10/11/2011 E1.00 INCH FOARD TX PUBLIC

1225 AM HAIL WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
10/12/2011 E1.75 INCH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC


&&

$$

DS/FM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US/NWRN MEXICO
AND THE ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. WHILE AN EMBEDDED/SHORTER-WAVELENGTH PIECE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE SERN
STATES...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...MAINTAINING THE LARGER-SCALE/LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE ERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WRN
ONTARIO SSEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD...AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.

...ERN TN/NERN AL/NRN GA EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS
THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NEWD. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH OVERALL STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
VERY MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SSWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE NEAR PEAK HEATING
-- DESPITE THE OVERALL DEARTH OF INSTABILITY. ONE OR TWO CELLS
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...AND THUS LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
HAIL/WIND WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/12/2011

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KTOP [120558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 120558
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1258 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM HAIL 6 NE TALMAGE 39.09N 97.18W
10/12/2011 E0.88 INCH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH SOME NICKEL SIZE. NEARLY
COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2249

ACUS11 KWNS 120458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120457
TXZ000-OKZ000-120700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND N-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120457Z - 120700Z

SMALL CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
FOARD/WILBARGER/WICHITA COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH...PERHAPS INVOLVING MERGER WITH INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTION
TO ITS SE BETWEEN SPS-RPH. IF THAT OCCURS...STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SEWD INTO REGIME OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SUPPORTED BY EWD-SHIFTING AND
SLOWLY-VEERING LLJ. MODIFIED FWD RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTED BY JUXTAPOSITION OF
WAA BENEATH COOLING ALOFT RELATED TO OVHD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS...MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATED 00Z RAOB ANALYSES. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WELL BENEATH 300-MB LEVEL...LIMITING
CAPE DESPITE STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED IN SUPPORT OF OCNL POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION ALOFT.

RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
ABOVE SHALLOW BUT STRENGTHENING REGIME OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY.
WHILE FORMER SUPPORTS DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION AND WIND
POTENTIAL...LATTER OFFSETS THAT TO CONSIDERABLE EXTENT...GIVEN
MLCINH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 J/KG ACROSS PROSPECTIVE PATH. THEREFORE
ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT MAY RESULT FROM
UPSCALE/FORWARD-PROPAGATION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED/SPORADIC
INSTEAD OF WELL-ORGANIZED.

..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33839954 34169910 33869783 33049676 32509734 32239830
33179925 33839954

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