SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120457
TXZ000-OKZ000-120700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND N-CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120457Z - 120700Z
SMALL CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
FOARD/WILBARGER/WICHITA COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH...PERHAPS INVOLVING MERGER WITH INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTION
TO ITS SE BETWEEN SPS-RPH. IF THAT OCCURS...STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SEWD INTO REGIME OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SUPPORTED BY EWD-SHIFTING AND
SLOWLY-VEERING LLJ. MODIFIED FWD RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTED BY JUXTAPOSITION OF
WAA BENEATH COOLING ALOFT RELATED TO OVHD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS...MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATED 00Z RAOB ANALYSES. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WELL BENEATH 300-MB LEVEL...LIMITING
CAPE DESPITE STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED IN SUPPORT OF OCNL POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION ALOFT.
RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
ABOVE SHALLOW BUT STRENGTHENING REGIME OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY.
WHILE FORMER SUPPORTS DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION AND WIND
POTENTIAL...LATTER OFFSETS THAT TO CONSIDERABLE EXTENT...GIVEN
MLCINH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 J/KG ACROSS PROSPECTIVE PATH. THEREFORE
ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT MAY RESULT FROM
UPSCALE/FORWARD-PROPAGATION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED/SPORADIC
INSTEAD OF WELL-ORGANIZED.
..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33839954 34169910 33869783 33049676 32509734 32239830
33179925 33839954
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