Thursday, November 8, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090009
SWODY1
SPC AC 090007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THREAT FOR THUNDER.

ELSEWHERE...WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DRY/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 11/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081904
SWODY1
SPC AC 081901

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
DOWNSTREAM OF A VERY STRONG...ZONAL PACIFIC JET STREAK...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE
TO LIFT TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS.
THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WHEN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH AN INCREASING
ONSHORE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE/ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE 09/06-12Z TIME FRAME. BUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD
ELECTRIFICATION IS LOW. AND...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

.KERR.. 11/08/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081713
SWODY2
SPC AC 081711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG WESTERLY PACIFIC JET...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN NOSING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
JUST AHEAD THIS FEATURE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE INLAND AND WEAKEN WITHIN BROADER SCALE RIDGING
AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW...ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AND....THE LAST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WITHIN THE
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PROGRESSING OFF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

..EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN IMPULSE. BUT...A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND RETURN FLOW
INLAND...WILL CONTINUE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX.
BUT...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING BENEATH A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONG LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/
UPPER FORCING. AND...THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CONVECTION
WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. BUT...THE PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGHLY SPORADIC/ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.KERR.. 11/08/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081625
SWODY1
SPC AC 081622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
PERSIST FROM JUST OFF THE SERN FL COAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING. AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY WAS ALREADY SUPPORTING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE EAST OF SRN FL.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...MOIST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DURING THE
PERIOD.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/08/2007

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KJKL [081459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 081459
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
958 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM TORNADO 4 WSW OWINGSVILLE 38.12N 83.83W
11/05/2007 BATH KY NWS STORM SURVEY

STORM DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON DAY
ROAD. 4 BARNS SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE AND ONE
WAS BLOWN OFF ITS FOUNDATION. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED
AND UPROOTED ALONG THE 1.5 MILE PATH. THE TORNADO CROSSED
INTERSTATE 64 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWINGSVILLE BEFORE
LIFTING. TORNADO RATED EF-0 WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 85 MPH.


&&

$$

TPJ

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KDLH [081441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 081441
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
840 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 25 NNE GRAND MARAIS 48.09N 90.14W
11/08/2007 M1.8 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MBETTWY

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KAPX [081428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081428
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
928 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 5 N ST. IGNACE 45.94N 84.73W
11/08/2007 E3.0 INCH MACKINAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8AM. SNOWDEPTH 3 INCHES.

0700 AM SNOW KALKASKA 44.73N 85.18W
11/08/2007 M3.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 3 INCHES.


&&

$$

SWR

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KGRR [081259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 081259
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW LEOTA 44.14N 84.89W
11/08/2007 M1.0 INCH CLARE MI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KGRR [081258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 081258
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW TUSTIN 44.10N 85.46W
11/08/2007 M0.5 INCH OSCEOLA MI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KAPX [081248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081248
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM SNOW 5 SE MANCELONA 44.85N 84.99W
11/08/2007 M2.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081241
SWODY1
SPC AC 081239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM TWO SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS IN THE E PACIFIC.

DRY AIRMASS E OF THE ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH...WILL
PRECLUDE TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WRN
WA AND NW ORE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NE PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
CST...BUT INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THUNDER.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/08/2007

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KAPX [081241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081241
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
741 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM SNOW PICKFORD 46.16N 84.36W
11/08/2007 M3.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 081232 CCA
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
730 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 4 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.34W
11/08/2007 M1.1 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR SNOWFALL THRU 7 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081230
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
730 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 4 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.34W
11/08/2007 M1.1 INCH MISSAUKEE MI AIRPLANE PILOT

12 HR SNOWFALL THRU 7 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081228
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW WHITEFISH POINT 46.75N 84.98W
11/08/2007 M1.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081217
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
716 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM SNOW 3 WNW EAST JORDAN 45.17N 85.19W
11/08/2007 M2.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081207
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
11/08/2007 M2.2 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

8 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081153
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/08/2007 M1.1 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

6 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081116
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
616 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM SNOW PETOSKEY 45.38N 84.96W
11/08/2007 M1.3 INCH EMMET MI PUBLIC

7 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081104
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
604 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW MOORESTOWN 44.47N 84.95W
11/08/2007 M1.3 INCH MISSAUKEE MI PUBLIC

7 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.

0545 AM SNOW SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.65W
11/08/2007 E1.0 INCH LEELANAU MI PUBLIC

7 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081100
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
559 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW 2 NNE GOETZVILLE 46.11N 84.07W
11/08/2007 E1.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

7 HR TOTAL TOTAL THRU 6 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [081051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 081051
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
550 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW 1 E CROSS VILLAGE 45.64N 85.02W
11/08/2007 E2.1 INCH EMMET MI CO-OP OBSERVER

7 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080903
SWOD48
SPC AC 080902

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND
SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS RIDGE MOVES
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WITH AN OPEN TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AT THIS
POINT WITH THE GFS MOVING A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE PLAINS STATES AND THE ECMWF REMAINING ZONAL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN PRESENTS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN NWD INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID-MS VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA CAN NOT BE OUTLOOKED ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/08/2007

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KAPX [080754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 080754
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
254 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 AM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
11/08/2007 E1.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 HR TOTAL THRU 3 AM.


&&

$$

JZ

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS WITH SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
FURTHER NORTH...THE MODELS DEVELOP A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
JET DUE TO WARM ADVECTION FROM ERN NEB AND ERN KS EWD INTO WRN IL.
ATTM...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.BROYLES.. 11/08/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080553
SWODY1
SPC AC 080552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD...AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WEST AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A SECOND
TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE.

WITH DRY/STABLE AIRMASS FORECAST E OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF
PRIOR COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS MAY
APPROACH THE W COAST LATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

.GOSS.. 11/08/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080551
SWODY2
SPC AC 080549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SLY FLOW TO PERSIST OVER TX AND THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY...TRANSPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F NWD INTO
CNTRL AND ERN TX AND POSSIBLY SE OK. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF TX...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE VERY WEAK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. AS A
RESULT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...WNWLY FLOW SHOULD MOVE THE STORMS AWAY FROM
THE COAST SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK A THUNDER AREA ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/08/2007

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