SWODY2
SPC AC 081711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG WESTERLY PACIFIC JET...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN NOSING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
JUST AHEAD THIS FEATURE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE INLAND AND WEAKEN WITHIN BROADER SCALE RIDGING
AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW...ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AND....THE LAST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WITHIN THE
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PROGRESSING OFF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
..EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN IMPULSE. BUT...A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND RETURN FLOW
INLAND...WILL CONTINUE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX.
BUT...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING BENEATH A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONG LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/
UPPER FORCING. AND...THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CONVECTION
WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. BUT...THE PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGHLY SPORADIC/ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
.KERR.. 11/08/2007
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