KSGF [170458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170458
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1058 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM FLASH FLOOD CAMDENTON 38.01N 92.74W
02/16/2008 CAMDEN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

BALL PARK ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

$$

DSA

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KSGF [170455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170455
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1055 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM FLOOD FORSYTH 36.68N 93.12W
02/16/2008 TANEY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LANSETT ROAD...KIMBERLING CREEK ROAD...CEADAR POINT
HILL AND HIGHWAY 160 ALL HAVE WATER COVERING ROAD BUT
ARE STILL PASSABLE

&&

$$

LD

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KSGF [170445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170445
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 E BILLINGS 37.07N 93.48W
02/16/2008 CHRISTIAN MO NWS EMPLOYEE

ROAD CLOSED AT THE INTERSECTION OF TERREL AND BEAL WITH
1.5 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD

&&

$$

LD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0247

ACUS11 KWNS 170442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170441
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL THROUGH NRN LA...SERN
AR...EXTREME WRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...

VALID 170441Z - 170615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 59 CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES PERSISTS WITH BAND OF
TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACCELERATE
AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS. AS PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EJECT NEWD INTO OK...AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENTS
SPREAD ACROSS REGION...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY INCREASE.
DURING PAST 3 HOURS...500 MB WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED FROM 55-75 KT
AT CENTRAL LA PROFILER. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND INCLUDES SOME
AREAS N AND NE OF EXISTING WW...IN AND NEAR N-CENTRAL/NERN LA.
ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE AREAS.

MEANWHILE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN
VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS ABOVE RELATIVELY WEAK/SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS AND
BRIEF TORNADOES MAXIMIZED LOCALLY INVOF BOW/LEWP FEATURES. MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG STILL ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW 200 J/KG
BECAUSE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND STABLE AREAS IN LOW LEVELS.

LCH IS LAUNCHING RAOB AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND TO SAMPLE PROXIMITY
INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN LA.

.EDWARDS.. 02/17/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

29589442 30989358 32299300 33379279 33619188 33459097
32569082 31319131 30149177 29579204 29549225 29579265
29789322 29679382 29669403

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KSGF [170440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170440
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1040 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM FLASH FLOOD FORDLAND 37.16N 92.94W
02/16/2008 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY FF CLOSED AT PANTHER CREEK

&&

$$

LD

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KSGF [170438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170438
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N DIGGINS 37.19N 92.85W
02/16/2008 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY A CLOSED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

LD

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KHGX [170437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 170437
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM HAIL CROCKETT 31.32N 95.46W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0536 PM HAIL CROCKETT 31.32N 95.46W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0549 PM HAIL 1 NE CROCKETT 31.33N 95.44W
02/16/2008 E0.75 INCH HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG RIVERSIDE 30.85N 95.40W
02/16/2008 WALKER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ACROSS LOCAL ROADS.

0625 PM TORNADO APPLE SPRINGS 31.22N 94.97W
02/16/2008 TRINITY TX AMATEUR RADIO

POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR APPLE SPRINGS.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW WAVERLY 30.54N 95.48W
02/16/2008 WALKER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

PINE TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 105.

0914 PM HAIL WEBSTER 29.53N 95.12W
02/16/2008 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0916 PM TSTM WND DMG SANTA FE 29.38N 95.10W
02/16/2008 GALVESTON TX PUBLIC

DAMAGE TO HOUSE. PORCH,ETC.

0923 PM TSTM WND DMG BRAZORIA 29.05N 95.57W
02/16/2008 BRAZORIA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0935 PM TORNADO LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
02/16/2008 GALVESTON TX PUBLIC

TORNADO SPOTTED FROM 1700 MAIN STREET.

1000 PM TSTM WND GST GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
02/16/2008 M64.00 MPH GALVESTON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

GUST MEASURED AT NORTH JETTY.

&&

$$

47

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KSGF [170435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170435
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 PM FLASH FLOOD SEYMOUR 37.15N 92.77W
02/16/2008 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY V AT JAMES RIVER CLOSED WITH 2 FEET OF WATER
OVER THE ROAD

&&

$$

LD

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KSGF [170436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170436
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1036 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1031 PM FLASH FLOOD AVA 36.95N 92.66W
02/16/2008 DOUGLAS MO EMERGENCY MNGR

Y HWY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING JUST WEST OF AVA. FF
HIGHWAY OF OFF 14 EAST IS CLOSED JUST OUTSIDE OF AVA.

&&

$$

DSA

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KSHV [170431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 170431
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1031 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E SAREPTA 32.90N 93.38W
02/16/2008 WEBSTER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 2.

&&

$$

18

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KLCH [170424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 170424
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1024 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 E WOODVILLE 30.77N 94.22W
02/16/2008 TYLER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN

&&

$$

AP

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KSGF [170421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170421
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 PM FLOOD 2 S BUFFALO 37.61N 93.09W
02/16/2008 DALLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER IS OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY A 2 MILES SOUTH OF
BUFFALO

&&

$$

LD

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KSGF [170419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 170419
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 PM FLASH FLOOD LONG LANE 37.61N 92.91W
02/16/2008 DALLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 32 IN LONG LANE IS CLOSED

&&

$$

LD

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KFWD [162310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 162310
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 5 N CAMERON 30.93N 96.98W
02/16/2008 E0.88 INCH MILAM TX AMATEUR RADIO

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING HIGHWAY 77 ABOUT 5
MILES NORTH OF CAMERON

$$

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KCYS [162251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162251
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
351 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 PM SNOW 20 SE SARATOGA 41.25N 106.54W
02/16/2008 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL FALLING PRETTY GOOD.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KABQ [162250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 162250
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW COLONIAS 35.11N 104.85W
02/16/2008 E6.0 INCH GUADALUPE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM SNOW 12 NW YESO 34.56N 104.76W
02/16/2008 E6.0 INCH DE BACA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0227 PM SNOW 4 NW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.41W
02/16/2008 M2.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

SANDIA SKI AREA.

&&

$$

KD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0243

ACUS11 KWNS 162131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162131
TXZ000-OKZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57...

VALID 162131Z - 162230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57
CONTINUES.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
VALID PORTIONS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 57. HOWEVER...BULK OF ACTIVITY IN
THIS WATCH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
MORE INTENSE STORMS DEVELOP EAST ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.

WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EMERGING ACROSS WEST
TX...MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COULD STILL
LEND SUPPORT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE INTENSE ELEVATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. LATEST TRENDS...AND LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION...DO
SUGGEST THAT ANY HAIL THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE ISOLATED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LARGE PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH
57 MAY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO NORMAL EXPIRATION AT 01Z.

.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

33829829 33789566 29749789 29690036

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KABQ [162118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 162118
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
218 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM SNOW 4 W SAPELLO 35.77N 105.32W
02/16/2008 E3.5 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

WET SNOW SINCE ABOUT 0700 AM THIS MORNING MELTING
RAPIDLY.

1225 PM SNOW 17 SSE LAS VEGAS 35.37N 105.10W
02/16/2008 E11.5 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0204 PM SNOW RIBERA 35.37N 105.45W
02/16/2008 M5.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

ADDTIONAL 2.0 INCHES SINCE LAST REPORT AT 0820 AM.

&&

$$

KD

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 58

WWUS20 KWNS 162026
SEL8
SPC WW 162026
TXZ000-CWZ000-170300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

..EVANS

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KOUN [162004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 162004
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 5 ENE TERRAL 33.92N 97.86W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

JPIKE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0242

ACUS11 KWNS 162001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162000
LAZ000-TXZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 162000Z - 162130Z

A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN LA...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL TX TO SERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD FROM THE BIG BEND AREA. POTENT
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70-90KT SWLY 500MB
FLOW...WILL SPREAD EAST ATOP CONFLUENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-40KT TO RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS/MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT PRESENT...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED AS
INDICATED IN 18Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS CAPPING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD SC CLOUD DECK OBSERVED IN SATL IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FORCING ALONG THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION...OVER WILSON COUNTY...AND
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE CAP AND
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVING AS COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EAST.

.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

32769473 32649428 32229386 30929347 30029375 29529420
29209492 28759572 28109714 28289798 28959856 29339823
29879729 30259676 30749647 31349620 31759615 32269583
32849504

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161957
SWODY1
SPC AC 161955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN
LA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

..SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM JUST E OF THE DFW METROPLEX SWD
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...THEN SWD INTO S TX. COLD AIR HAS SLOWED EWD
SEEPAGE OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW NEAR KSAT. THIS LOW WILL
MIGRATE NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NCNTRL/NERN TX BY THIS EVENING
TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS. AS A RESULT...
RESIDENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SERN TX WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER...EVIDENT ON THE 18Z
SHV RAOB...ERODING WITH TIME INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

VSBL SATL PICTURE PORTRAYS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING BENEATH A STOUT CAP
AS NOTED ON THE RECENT CRP RAOB. THIS CAP IS LIKELY WEAKER FARTHER
N IN THE KIAH REGION PER ACARS...BUT LACK OF ROBUST SFC HEATING IS
PROBLEMATIC. NONETHELESS...THE CAP WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS ASCENT
ASSOCD WITH THE W TX UPR LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
RELEASE THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING
CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE FRONT FROM SERN OK SWD INTO SCNTRL TX.

PRIMARY SVR CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AND
LARGE HAIL RISKS ATOP THE COLD DOME FROM SWRN/SCNTRL OK INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY/HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF NCNTRL TX. FWD SOUNDING EXHIBITED A
7.2 DEG C PER KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATE AND MUCAPE OF NEARLY 2000 J PER
KG. INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTN WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.

HIGHER SVR POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 21Z AS PRE-FRONTAL
SFC-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN/SERN TX. PAT
PROFILER AND FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250
M2/S2 AND 6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN
THE LOW LCL/S IN PLACE AND PROSPECTS FOR DISCRETE CELLS...RISKS FOR
A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL/SERN TX/UPR TX COAST. AGAIN...PRIMARY PROBLEM WILL BE IF THE
WARM SECTOR CAN DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS AND EVENTUAL ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE DISCRETE STORM POSSIBILITIES...IT IS MUCH
MORE CERTAIN THAT A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...GRADUALLY BUILDING SWWD INTO THE STRONGER CAP INTO
SCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY AS THE LINE
ACCELERATES INTO SERN TX AND THE SABINE RVR VLY. NRN EXTENT OF THE
LINE N OF THE ARKLATEX WILL BE ROOTED ATOP A RESIDUAL STABLE LAYER
WITH DECREASING SVR THREATS AT MORE NLY LATITUDES. SRN EDGE OF THE
LINE WILL MAINTAIN THE RISKS FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO
SRN/CNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z.

.RACY.. 02/16/2008

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KSJT [161937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 161937
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
137 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 W POTOSI 32.34N 99.77W
02/16/2008 E0.25 INCH TAYLOR TX CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND FENCES WERE COVERED
IN ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE.

&&

$$

24

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 57

WWUS20 KWNS 161834
SEL7
SPC WW 161834
TXZ000-170100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX. DESPITE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

..EVANS

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KOUN [161824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 161824
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HAIL RHINELAND 33.53N 99.65W
02/16/2008 E0.88 INCH KNOX TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

FM

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KABQ [161823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 161823
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1122 AM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM SNOW RIBERA 35.37N 105.45W
02/16/2008 E3.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0840 AM SNOW 10 N MOUNTAINAIR 34.67N 106.24W
02/16/2008 M1.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0852 AM SNOW LAS VEGAS 35.60N 105.22W
02/16/2008 M5.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0940 AM SNOW 14 S PIETOWN 34.10N 108.13W
02/16/2008 E2.5 INCH CATRON NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

0945 AM SNOW 16 NNE QUEMADO 34.55N 108.38W
02/16/2008 E3.5 INCH CATRON NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

0956 AM SNOW 33 ESE MOGOLLON 33.23N 108.26W
02/16/2008 E2.0 INCH CATRON NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

GILA CLIFF DWELLINGS VISITOR CENTER. SNOW FELL FRIDAY
EVENING.

1000 AM SNOW 7 NW BLUEWATER LAKE 35.37N 108.17W
02/16/2008 E1.5 INCH MCKINLEY NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

SNOW FELL FRIDAY NIGHT.

1030 AM SNOW DATIL 34.15N 107.84W
02/16/2008 E2.5 INCH CATRON NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL FRIDAY NIGHT.

1038 AM SNOW SANTA ROSA 34.94N 104.68W
02/16/2008 E3.0 INCH GUADALUPE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN AT 5 AM.

1059 AM SNOW 9 W CLINES CORNERS 35.01N 105.83W
02/16/2008 E2.5 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1101 AM SNOW 16 E CLINES CORNERS 35.01N 105.39W
02/16/2008 E7.0 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1105 AM SNOW EDGEWOOD 35.08N 106.18W
02/16/2008 E1.5 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

KD

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KOTX [161823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 161823
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1022 AM PST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 W ATHOL 47.95N 116.73W
02/16/2008 M4.5 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER KOOTENAI 82, ELEVATION 2500FT.

0755 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E SPIRIT LAKE 47.97N 116.81W
02/16/2008 M5.2 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER KOOTENAI 27, ELEVATION 2550FT.

0825 AM HEAVY SNOW BLANCHARD 48.02N 116.98W
02/16/2008 M4.0 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER BONNER 38, ELEVATION 2200FT.

0950 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 ENE ATHOL 47.95N 116.69W
02/16/2008 M5.0 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER KOOTENAI 17,ELEVATION 2445FT.

&&

$$

SSAVOY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0241

ACUS11 KWNS 161802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161801
TXZ000-161930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161801Z - 161930Z

THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
INCREASE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NCNTRL TX NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
REMAIN LARGE.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST TX ESCARPMENT FROM N OF I10 NWD ACROSS SJT/ABI AREAS...TO SWRN
OK. SO FAR...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS BRIEFLY ACHIEVED SEVERE
LEVELS AND BULK OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITHIN
WEAK INSTABILITY REGIME. ENSEMBLE AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUC
GUIDANCE APPEAR TO INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT ALONG EWD-ADVANCING 850MB FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ZONE OF FORCING
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS CNTRL/NCNTRL TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AN
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
FRONTAL FORCING BEGIN TO COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY
IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS... WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED AOA
850MB. THUS...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE IF IT APPEARS SEVERE STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THIS
AREA.

WARM SECTOR...FROM SOUTH TX NEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
REMAINS CAPPED ATTM. STORM INITIATION IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

32879909 32119919 30659902 29999872 29559833 29429766
30109692 31759686 32929716 33689824

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KCYS [161648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 161648
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
948 AM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/16/2008 M65 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WIND 50 MPH.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161617
SWODY1
SPC AC 161614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN
LA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

..SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING AS SEASONABLY
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL DRIVE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
EJECTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH
OF THIS AREA AS 90+ KT H5 AND 120 KT H25 JETS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.

ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS INCREASING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THIS
MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 240/. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SYSTEM...WITH
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AT 15Z...LEADING EDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR HAS SEEPED WELL EAST OF
I-35 AND SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER NEAR COT NNEWD
TO JUST SE OF CLL AND THEN NNWWD TO A WEAKER LOW CENTER SE OF DAL.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN INTO NERN TX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE
TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND STRONG CINH FROM
PRONOUNCE ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR
STORMS TODAY. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG FROM SERN TX
NWD...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE AND STRONG CAP INTO SRN TX. ROBUST WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT DEEP...FORCED ASCENT AROUND 21Z FROM
PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...WHICH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN TX THROUGH 00Z.
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING
LINE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN AN
ENHANCED RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER
TX COAST. HOWEVER...OVERALL MODE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA BEFORE SYSTEM
INGESTS WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER LA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
/INCLUDING THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.EVANS.. 02/16/2008

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KCYS [161602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 161602
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
901 AM MST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/16/2008 M66 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240

ACUS11 KWNS 161600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161600
TXZ000-OKZ000-161730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161600Z - 161730Z

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE OVER A
BROAD REGION FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURS IF MORE VIGOROUS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE A SURFACE-BASED STABLE
LAYER...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN A N-S SWATH FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
INTO SWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN AS STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS LOW LEVEL MOIST PLUME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER BELOW 850MB...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE ENHANCED ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE
IN THE RANGE OF 500-1200 J PER KG GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY JET ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50KT WILL PROMOTE COHERENT/PERSISTENT CELL
CORES AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE EXPANDING
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. IF IT APPEARS THIS TREND IS GETTING
UNDERWAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE...A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

33529793 32109817 29819897 29200000 29800096 30780118
31690091 33110048 34429953 34299848

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KLIX [161458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 161458
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
858 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0644 AM TORNADO MORGANZA 30.74N 91.59W
02/16/2008 POINTE COUPEE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

A LINE OF DAMAGE ESTIMATED 8 MILES LONG FROM MITCHELL
LANE IN MORGANZA TO MANDELLA LANE JUST WEST OF NEW ROADS
ALONG LA HIGHWAY 1. ONE HOME SEVERELY DAMAGED IN
MORGANZA. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND HIGHWAY 1 BLOCKED SOUTH
OF MORGANZA. NEARLY 24 HOMES WITH MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF
DAMAGE. 12 TO 18 CARPORTS AND PORCHES REMOVED OR
DESTROYED. NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

$$

RRICKS

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KLCH [161333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 161333
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
733 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM HAIL BIG CANE 30.82N 92.01W
02/16/2008 M1.00 INCH ST. LANDRY LA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

RC

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KFWD [161314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161314
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 AM HAIL 1 W ANNA 33.35N 96.57W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH COLLIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HAMS REPORTED GOLFBALL HAIL NEAR HWY 75 AND 455 WEST OF
ANNA

$$

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KFWD [161307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161307
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM HAIL 5 SW MCKINNEY 33.15N 96.72W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH COLLIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HAM REPORTED QUARTER HAIL NEAR CUSTER AND FM720 ABOUT 5
MILES SW OF MCKINNEY

$$

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KFWD [161304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161304
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
703 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM HAIL 3 W MCKINNEY 33.20N 96.71W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH COLLIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HAM REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL NEAR 380 AND LAKE FOREST DRIVE
WEST OF MCKINNEY.

$$

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KFWD [161300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161300
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 AM HAIL 2 SW MELISSA 33.26N 96.60W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH COLLIN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAMS REPORTED A LITTLE LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE HAIL
JUST SOUTHWEST OF MELISSA.

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0239

ACUS11 KWNS 161250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161249
MSZ000-LAZ000-161345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161249Z - 161345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS
ACROSS SERN LA AND SWRN/SRN MS...GENERALLY 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM AVOYELLES PARISH LA TO STONE COUNTY MS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TRACKING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT OVER SERN LA. WSR-88D VWP AND 12Z
LCH SOUNDING SHOWED A 30 KT SLY LLJ IN WRN LA WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN SERN LA AS INDICATED BY 12Z SOUNDING AT NEW. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NW OF BTR
IS LIKELY BEING FED BY MORE BUOYANT ELEVATED AIR MASS /MUCAPE AROUND
900 J/KG/ AS DEPICTED BY LCH 12Z SOUNDING. WEAKER INSTABILITY
FARTHER E IN FAR SERN LA/SERN MS SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM GREATER INSTABILITY SOURCE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KT FAVOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.PETERS.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30178922 30218952 30299022 30399146 30649233 31069241
31529188 31469053 31448924 30748912

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KFWD [161247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161247
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM HAIL 3 SW MCKINNEY 33.17N 96.69W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH COLLIN TX PUBLIC

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161246
SWODY1
SPC AC 161243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN/SRN TX AND
WRN/SRN LA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW NEAR ELP WILL CONTINUE E/ENE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WEST TX TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NE TOWARD THE MO OZARKS
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...LOOSELY-CONSOLIDATED LOW NOW
FORMING ALONG STALLED FRONT IN S CNTRL TX EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
DEVELOP NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD
REACH THE PRX AREA BY EVENING AS DIFFUSE MARITIME WARM FRONT...NOW
EXTENDING NW/SE ACROSS SE TX...LIFTS N INTO CNTRL LA. THE LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO CNTRL MO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS INCREASING WLY
FLOW S OF LOW ACCELERATES ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT E/SE INTO WRN
TN/CNTRL MS AND SE LA.

..ERN/SRN TX INTO WRN/SRN LA...
SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR WILL BE PRESENT TODAY E OF SFC
FRONT NOW STALLING ALONG A NNE/SSW AXIS E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER
SRN AND ERN TX. THIS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL EXTEND NE TO
VICINITY OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW NEAR CLL/BPT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND EXISTING EML DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR
LOW LIKELY WILL KEEP MOST OF REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF NNE/SSW FRONT AS THAT BOUNDARY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE E AS A
COLD FRONT...AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.

WITH 500 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS AND 50 KT SLY FLOW
PERSISTING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD FAIRLY
QUICKLY MERGE INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQLN. EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS...GIVEN LONG/HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON SRN
END OF SQLN IN S CNTRL TX...WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS
THAT FORM IN AREA OF WEAKENING CIN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SQLN.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
SQLN DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS LA...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND SRN LA.

..W CNTRL/NW TX...
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM NW TO S CNTRL TX
THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTN IN AREA OF WAA/ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE /AOA 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD
REMAIN PRESENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL...UNTIL MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH FARTHER TO THE E A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW SHOULD ORGANIZE THE
STORMS INTO N-S BACK-BUILDING BANDS. THESE STRUCTURES COULD YIELD A
FEW CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS AT OR CLOSE TO FREEZING.

..NE TX INTO SE OK/AR...
STORMS IN NRN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL SQLN...N OF DIFFUSE MARITIME
FRONT...COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE NNE WITHIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PLUME OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE OVER SE
OK...SRN/CNTRL AR...NRN LA AND EXTREME NE TX. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAY BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER SW...RICH MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 45-55 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AS
EJECTING UPR SYSTEM ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.

..LA/WRN MS THIS MORNING...
A FEW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL/NRN LA AND SW MS...IN WAA ZONE NE OF
MARITIME FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NWD AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR LOW. SEE UPCOMING
MCD FOR MORE DETAILS.

.CORFIDI.. 02/16/2008

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KLIX [161242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 161242
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 AM TSTM WND DMG MORGANZA 30.74N 91.59W
02/16/2008 POINTE COUPEE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN...POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

$$

25

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0238

ACUS11 KWNS 161237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161236
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-161630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND TX/OK PANHANDLES
INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 161236Z - 161630Z

FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SLEET WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OK.

AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD FAR WEST TX...LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS TREND
CONTINUES...FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS/SOME SLEET
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS.

AS SAMPLED BY EARLY MORNING RAOBS FROM AMARILLO TX/LAMONT OK AND
AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...A WARM/FULL MELTING LAYER ATOP A
SHALLOW /0.5 KM/ SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM FREEZING RAIN...MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ICE PELLET/SLEET POTENTIAL.

.GUYER.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

37509914 37359735 35419725 35049940 34680092 34550177
35150272 36120281 36870175

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

349
WOUS40 KWNS 161051
PWOSPC
LAZ000-TXZ000-161845-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND MUCH OF
LOUISIANA.

A BAND OF JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EASTWARD.

THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE
NORTH-SOUTH LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 02/16/2008

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KSJT [161045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 161045
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
445 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 AM HAIL RULE 33.18N 99.89W
02/16/2008 E1.00 INCH HASKELL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

SN

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 161009
SWOD48
SPC AC 161008

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DAY 4 TO ZONAL PROGRESSIVE BY DAY 5. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ADVANCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY DAY 6 AND SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT THIS FEATURE INTO THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS LATE DAY 6. THOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...SOME
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
RETURN NWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
SERN STATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH AN
ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S..

MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY DAY 8...AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. PREFER TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER
FEEL FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING AN AREA FOR DAY
8.

.DIAL.. 02/16/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0237

ACUS11 KWNS 160854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160853
TXZ000-161000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W AND SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160853Z - 161000Z

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND W TX WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE/INTENSITY
SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 0730Z IN THE
VICINITY AND N OF SJT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN INCREASING
WAA REGIME ALONG SSELY 40 KT LLJ AND 150-200 NM N OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD FROM MAVERICK COUNTY /SE OF DRT/
TO 40 SE SAT AND THEN NNEWD INTO NERN TX AND ERN OK. A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND 60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF SE AZ/SW NM UPPER LOW/TROUGH BY 12Z WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR STORM ROTATION.
THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER CORES COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...
GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BORDEN/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO
TAYLOR COUNTY...WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN ADDITION TO A HAIL
THREAT SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE AOB 32 F.

.PETERS.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30290114 31320155 32400190 32990152 33170017 32859967
30989919 30159940 29890066

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KFWD [160813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160813
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 AM HAIL RETREAT 32.05N 96.48W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH NAVARRO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN RETREAT

$$

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160754
SWODY3
SPC AC 160753

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL...

..SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A BROADER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE ERN STATES MONDAY. BY
12Z MONDAY...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER SERN
CANADA SWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...ERN CAROLINAS INTO NRN FL AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY MID
MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SWD
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

..ERN NC...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM ERN NC INTO COASTAL SC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

..NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN FL EARLY MONDAY...THEN SHIFT SWD INTO
CNTRL FL BY MID-DAY. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND STORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.

.DIAL.. 02/16/2008

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KLCH [160746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 160746
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
145 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM HAIL BOYCE 31.39N 92.67W
02/16/2008 E0.75 INCH RAPIDES LA AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

ML

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0236

ACUS11 KWNS 160709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160709
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN TX/EXTREME SRN OK/WRN AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160709Z - 160815Z

ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM NRN TX INTO EXTREME SRN OK AND SEWD
ACROSS E TX TO LA. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. TSTMS OVER SE TX ARE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MAY HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LARGE ARCING AREA OF ONGOING TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM NW/N TX SEWD INTO E TX/LA. AREA WSR-88D VADS AND
WIND PROFILERS SHOWED VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ROTATING STORMS
AS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/
ERN TX AND WRN/SWRN LA. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM S TX...JUST
SE DRT...ENEWD INTO SE TX WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING FROM
SE TX TO OFFSHORE OF LA. DESPITE SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS OK/TX/LA...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE
SWRN STATES...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM S TX TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN UVVS FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE TX/FAR SWRN LA.
THUS...LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO SRN
EXTENT OF ONGOING ARC OF TSTMS AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL AS PRIMARY THREAT.

.PETERS.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

32939916 33379935 34019938 34549894 34489787 34009645
33119494 32279362 31409220 30659203 29639233 29639393
29659501 30939579 32289777

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KFWD [160645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160645
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1234 AM HAIL DAWSON 31.89N 96.71W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH NAVARRO TX EMERGENCY MNGR

$$

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KFWD [160618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160618
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL 10 NE BELLMEAD 31.70N 96.97W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH MCLENNAN TX PUBLIC

RELAYED VIA MEDIA...REPORTED IN AXTELL

$$

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KFWD [160606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160606
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 PM HAIL MOUNT CALM 31.76N 96.88W
02/16/2008 E1.75 INCH HILL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL HAIL IN MOUNT CALM

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160605
SWODY2
SPC AC 160602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD
THROUGH MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ATTENDING THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND NRN FL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

..SERN STATES...

PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY
FROM MOIST AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN STATES...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPPING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S LIKELY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. MOIST AXIS WILL LIKELY BE PINCHED OFF FARTHER NE FROM
NERN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS DUE TO LINGERING WEDGE OF CP AIR. NWD
ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. A LINE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITHIN THE LINE TO INTENSIFY
OR FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES AS STORMS INTERCEPT
MOIST AXIS. THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES
WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

STORMS MAY UNDERGO A TEMPORARY DECREASE AS THEY CROSS INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY LATE OVER
THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THEY INTERCEPT RETURNING MOIST AXIS.

..TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS...

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING VORT MAX. WHILE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THERMAL
TROUGH AND DRY SLOT...MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO LOW
TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 02/16/2008

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KFWD [160558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160558
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1126 PM HAIL BENBROOK 32.68N 97.46W
02/15/2008 E1.00 INCH TARRANT TX AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BENBROOK

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160546
SWODY1
SPC AC 160543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
TX...MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...TO E-CENTRAL TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS
W-CENTRAL/SW TX TO LOWER TX COAST...ARKLATEX REGION...MUCH OF
LA...AND WRN MS....

OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES -- APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM S-CENTRAL TX
ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN INTO E TX DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR.

..SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE UPPER LOW -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER EXTREME SERN AZ. THIS
CYCLONE IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS VALLEY BEFORE TURNING
NEWD OVER ERN OK LATE IN PERIOD..IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW.

AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN SHOWS THREE MAIN FEATURES ATTM...
1. ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ARKLATEX REGION
SWWD ACROSS CLL/SAT AREAS TO FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE BETWEEN
COT-DRT...THEN SWWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL COAHUILA. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY EARLY IN PERIOD...MOVING SEWD ACROSS
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NWWD OVER CENTRAL/N TX.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEESIDE LOW -- INITIALLY OVER NERN
MEX...MOVES/REFORMS NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL TX. BY 17/00-03Z TIME
FRAME...WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER SERN OK WITH FRONT
MOVING EWD/SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL TX AND COASTAL BEND REGION. BY
17/12Z...EXPECT OCCLUDED/STACKED CYCLONE FROM SFC-500 MB OVER MO
OZARKS...COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS LA AND NWRN GULF.
2. DRYLINE...DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY ATTM BUT EVIDENT OVER
PIEDMONT REGION BETWEEN MEX SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND RIO
GRANDE. THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE E OF RIO GRANDE THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...OVER PORTIONS DEEP S TX...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD
FRONT.
3. MARINE WARM FRONT...ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM ABOUT 125 SSW
MSY...JUST S OF GLS...TO FAYETTE COUNTY TX...INTERSECTING ARCTIC
BOUNDARY ABOUT 40 NNE VCT. THIS DENOTES NRN EDGE OF HIGH THETAE
GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX FASTER THAN OVER SWRN LA. THIS
WILL CAUSE TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF RICHEST WARM SECTOR AIR TO LIFT NWD
ACROSS E TX BEFORE COLD FROPA. WARM SECTOR EXPANSION FARTHER NE
OVER LA AND ARKLATEX REGION PROBABLY WILL BE IMPEDED/PREVENTED BY
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

..S-CENTRAL TX TO SWRN LA...WARM SECTOR...
GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS FCST INVOF COLD FRONT WHERE LINEAR
EVOLUTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY SWWD BACKBUILDING
WITH TIME. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL POSE RISK OF BOTH DAMAGING
WIND AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH HAIL. TRANSITION OF INFLOW PARCELS
FROM SFC-BASED TO ELEVATED MAY BE GRADUAL AND NEBULOUS ACROSS
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SO TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES ARE DRAWN
TO ALLOW CONSIDERABLE NWD TOLERANCE FOR WARM SECTOR EXPANSION OVER E
TX.

POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING TSTMS WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG SWRN/TAIL END OF CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW
IS MOST UNDISTURBED AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.
SUCH TSTMS...AS WELL AS ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION...MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES. EXPECT INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT OF RICH MOISTURE...LOW LCL...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...AND VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY ABOVE 350
J/KG.

MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ATTM INVOLVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION S OF FRONT...AND ALONG OR E OF POSSIBLE
DRYLINE. PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
THIS REGION THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING LAPSE RATES AND
CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING TO SUPPRESS
PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. LATE IN PERIOD...GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL
SHOULD SHRINK SEWD IN AREAL EXTENT ACROSS LA...AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
IN MAGNITUDE...DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES STILL WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL OVER WARM
SECTOR.

..W-CENTRAL/NW TX...NW OF ARCTIC FRONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING
AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX. FARTHER
W...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD MOVE
INTO W-CENTRAL TX AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...BECOMING INCREASINGLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH WRN PORTIONS OF ELEVATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME IN LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN
GENERALLY N-S ALIGNED BAND...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SOME MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG...AMIDST FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH LINEAR MODE SHOULD
PREDOMINATE...HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..ARKLATEX REGION...
NRN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND -- N OF MARINE BOUNDARY --
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED PLUME OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY OVER SERN OK...SRN
AR...PORTIONS NRN/NERN LA AND EXTREME NE TX. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAY BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR.

.EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 02/16/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0235

ACUS11 KWNS 160544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160543
OKZ000-TXZ000-161045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 160543Z - 161045Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHWEST TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

INFRARED SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY FEATURES INCREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY AND
ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TX OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WELL NORTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSES THE REGION PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK AND 00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM AMARILLO/MIDLAND TX AND NORMAN OK. AS OF
05Z...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE WAS RUNNING ROUGHLY WEST-EAST
PARALLEL TO I-20 IN WEST TX...AND THEN NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK. IN ACCORDANCE WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION/INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COMMON.

SIMILAR TO THE VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS...NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS LARGELY
FAVOR FREEZING RAIN UPON SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...OWING TO A FULL MELTING LAYER /850-900 MB AND ABOVE/ ATOP
THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS THAT RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR FREEZING RAIN...MODEST ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
200-500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE PELLETS/SLEET AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

.GUYER.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

36699886 36299706 34999725 34229893 33270022 33190174
34100277 34880286 35900146

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