MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0241

ACUS11 KWNS 161802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161801
TXZ000-161930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161801Z - 161930Z

THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
INCREASE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NCNTRL TX NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
REMAIN LARGE.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST TX ESCARPMENT FROM N OF I10 NWD ACROSS SJT/ABI AREAS...TO SWRN
OK. SO FAR...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS BRIEFLY ACHIEVED SEVERE
LEVELS AND BULK OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITHIN
WEAK INSTABILITY REGIME. ENSEMBLE AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUC
GUIDANCE APPEAR TO INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT ALONG EWD-ADVANCING 850MB FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ZONE OF FORCING
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS CNTRL/NCNTRL TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AN
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
FRONTAL FORCING BEGIN TO COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY
IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS... WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED AOA
850MB. THUS...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE IF IT APPEARS SEVERE STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THIS
AREA.

WARM SECTOR...FROM SOUTH TX NEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
REMAINS CAPPED ATTM. STORM INITIATION IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

32879909 32119919 30659902 29999872 29559833 29429766
30109692 31759686 32929716 33689824

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