Wednesday, April 11, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 120336
SWODY1
SPC AC 120334

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 120320Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

AMENDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER NWD INTO SC AND NC

..NERN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS...

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PRIMARILY
WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN GA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH SC NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRIMARY THREAT TO HAIL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THIS AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN AN
INFLUX OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS
STORMS COULD BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO POSE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.


..SERN STATES...

THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NC COAST SWWD THROUGH
ERN SC THEN WWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS
A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA NEWD THROUGH SERN
MS INTO CNTRL AL THEN CONTINUES NWD AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH
MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY AND NWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN E CNTRL IND.

WARM SECTOR FROM SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN GA REMAINS
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
STRONGEST STORMS INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM NEAR
INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT OVER E CNTRL AL ESEWD
NEAR AND JUST S OF WARM FRONT THROUGH S CNTRL GA. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
EWD ADVANCING DIVERGENT JET EXIT REGION. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL GA NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CORRESPONDING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA AS THE DIVERGENT UPPER JET ADVANCES
TOWARD THIS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN NWD ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND NWD
RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CNTRL SC AND ERN NC. THIS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. FEEL AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED AS FAR N AS SRN SC WITH SOME
PROBABILITIES INTO COASTAL NC. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS
WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING TO
SHIFT N OF WARM SECTOR.

..OH VALLEY...

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE ASCENT AND DPVA
IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE HEATING EARLIER TODAY
AND COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A DOMINANT LINEAR MODE FROM
SRN OH SWD THROUGH N CNTRL KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ADVANCES EAST.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

.DIAL.. 04/12/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0465

ACUS11 KWNS 120321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120321
FLZ000-120445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120321Z - 120445Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING
BOWING SYSTEM. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY 0430Z AS MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE.

RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION WITHIN SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER ERN POLK
AND WRN OSCEOLA COUNTIES IN CNTRL FL. THIS SMALL BOWING MCS APPEARS
TO HAVE ACCELERATED CONCURRENTLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CIRCULATION WITH SYSTEM NOW MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT AROUND 35 KT.
WHILE SOME SEVERE HAIL WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN THE TAMPA AREA...IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS THIS BOWING SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD
REACH THE MLB AREA BETWEEN 0400-0430Z...PRIOR TO MOVING OFFSHORE.

.MEAD.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

28308157 28438142 28458090 28368070 28188048 27968045
27758059 27718110 27828137 27978159

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128

WWUS20 KWNS 120301
SEL8
SPC WW 120301
GAZ000-SCZ000-121000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA
LARGE PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF VIDALIA GEORGIA TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125. WATCH NUMBER 125 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1100 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 127...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WATCH AREA AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER. STORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS THAT DEVELOP.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0464

ACUS11 KWNS 120243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120243
SCZ000-GAZ000-120345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA INTO CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 120243Z - 120345Z

TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER CNTRL GA WILL POSE A
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EWD/NEWD INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL SC LATER TONIGHT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM E OF ATL TO NEAR AHN...LIKELY DUE
TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA JUST TO THE N OF RETREATING WEDGE
FRONT. MODIFICATION OF 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS LIKELY STABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 250-500 J PER KG/ DOES
EXIST ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.MEAD.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

32888309 33398364 34108356 34458289 34818209 34748118
34538056 33918021 33278071 32768271

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0463

ACUS11 KWNS 120157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120157
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-120400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH...NERN KY...FAR WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...

VALID 120157Z - 120400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 127 CONTINUES.
A NEW WW EAST OF WW 127 IS NOT EXPECTED.

ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SCENTRAL OH
AND NERN KY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATED A
VERY STRONGLY SHEARED...BUT LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPES AROUND 400
J/KG/ WITH A SFC T/TD OF 55/51 F. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH
MORE STABLE OVER ERN/NERN OH EXISTS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 F AND
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 40S. DESPITE STRONG WAA...RECENT RUC PFC/S
INDICATE THAT AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH /MUCAPES LESS THAN
100 J/KG/ THAT THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS ORGANIZED LINE IS
ANTICIPATED TO END NEAR OR JUST EAST OF WW 127 ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR
WRN WV. PRIOR TO THEN...THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.CROSBIE.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

40648288 39938320 39068370 37858397 37718304 37848207
38428152 39608106 40368130 40828160 41078237 40818276

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 126

WWUS20 KWNS 120146
SEL6
SPC WW 120146
INZ000-KYZ000-120300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
946 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126 ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
KENTUCKY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0462

ACUS11 KWNS 120140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120139
SCZ000-GAZ000-120315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN GA INTO SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120139Z - 120315Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF ATL TO NEAR
AGS TO NW FLO...WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT FROM N OF VDI TO S OF
SAV. MEANWHILE...RADAR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A BOUNDARY HAS
SURGED WWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM
JUST E OF AYS TO ROUGHLY 20-30 S OF OGB.

AS OF 0130Z...THE MOST INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED INVOF SRN WARM
FRONT OVER CANDLER COUNTY GA WITHIN RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MODIFICATION OF 00Z CHS
SOUNDING FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS S OF THIS WARM FRONT YIELDS MLCAPES
OF 500-600 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OF AROUND 25-50 J/KG.
INCREASING SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT NWD DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
THROUGH AT LEAST SRN SC THROUGH 12/06Z AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS
ACROSS REGION.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH A
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

.MEAD.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

32288296 32618284 33008241 33188173 33258113 33088073
32638035 32138085 31668132 31648226

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120101
SWODY1
SPC AC 120059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

..SERN STATES...

THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NC COAST SWWD THROUGH
ERN SC THEN WWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS
A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA NEWD THROUGH SERN
MS INTO CNTRL AL THEN CONTINUES NWD AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH
MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY AND NWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN E CNTRL IND.

WARM SECTOR FROM SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN GA REMAINS
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
STRONGEST STORMS INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM NEAR
INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT OVER E CNTRL AL ESEWD
NEAR AND JUST S OF WARM FRONT THROUGH S CNTRL GA. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
EWD ADVANCING DIVERGENT JET EXIT REGION. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL GA NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CORRESPONDING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA AS THE DIVERGENT UPPER JET ADVANCES
TOWARD THIS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN NWD ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND NWD
RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CNTRL SC AND ERN NC. THIS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. FEEL AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED AS FAR N AS SRN SC WITH SOME
PROBABILITIES INTO COASTAL NC. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS
WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING TO
SHIFT N OF WARM SECTOR.

..OH VALLEY...

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE ASCENT AND DPVA
IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE HEATING EARLIER TODAY
AND COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A DOMINANT LINEAR MODE FROM
SRN OH SWD THROUGH N CNTRL KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ADVANCES EAST.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

.DIAL.. 04/12/2007

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Level 2 RADAR Snap of Chattahoochee Tornado


Jay

WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 124

WWUS20 KWNS 112359
SEL4
SPC WW 112355
ALZ000-MSZ000-120100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124 ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0461

ACUS11 KWNS 112323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112323
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-120100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 112323Z - 120100Z

THROUGH 0030-0100Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
FROM RUSSELL COUNTY AL EWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE...MARION AND PERHAPS SCHLEY AND MACON
COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL GA. ELSEWHERE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

AS OF 2310Z...MONTGOMERY AL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO
SUPERCELLS...ONE OVER CHAMBERS COUNTY AL INTO TROUP COUNTY GA AND
THE OTHER AT THE INTERSECTION OF MACON...LEE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
AL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE NRN MOST STORM SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER W-CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...THE SRN STORM APPEARS
TO BE MOVING QUITE NEAR THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WHERE RUC
FORECAST SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT CSG
INDICATES MLCAPES OF AROUND 600-700 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350
M2/S2 PER MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWP DATA.

AS SUCH...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO
CONTINUE FROM THE VICINITY OF CROSSVILLE AND FT. BENNING TO POINTS E
THROUGH 0030-0100Z.

.MEAD.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

31958782 32438749 32098616 34108610 34638557 34498537
33858526 33768411 33568303 30818302 31098790

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 127

WWUS20 KWNS 112316
SEL7
SPC WW 112316
KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-120500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
PARTS OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS OHIO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HUNTINGTON WEST
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...WW 125...WW 126...

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH BOWS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IND INTO NRN
KY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER DARK EVEN WITH
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WITH TROUGH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0460

ACUS11 KWNS 112258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112257
FLZ000-GAZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112257Z - 120030Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 2245Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
FROM DECATUR COUNTY GA SSWWD TO ERN LIBERTY/WRN LEO COUNTIES IN THE
CNTRL FL PNHDL....TO 30-50 MILES SW AAF. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE INITIATING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY OR TROUGH BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATION WITH THE LIBERTY/LEO COUNTY FL STORM
EXHIBITING SOME EPISODIC SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...HOWEVER LOCALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG.

TLH VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS
MODESTLY SHEARED BOTH IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM SHR OF
150-180 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 40.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED OWING TO THE WEAK FORCING AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA.

.MEAD.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

30458490 30888459 31008417 30938321 30698319 30378340
30158380 30108460 29928505

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0459

ACUS11 KWNS 112250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112250
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-112345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...WRN OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126...

VALID 112250Z - 112345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126
CONTINUES.

ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RACE EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS...REACHING THE IND/OH BORDER AROUND
00Z. THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS LINE...DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY. AN ADDITIONAL WW
WILL BE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OH AND NERN KY.

LINE OF INTENSE TSTMS WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITHIN BOWING STRUCTURES /51 KTS MEASURED AT BMG AT 2149Z AND 52 KTS
AT SDF AT 2212Z/ HAS NOW REACHED THE I-65 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE
INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT FROM THE EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY.
DESPITE MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.GRAMS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

37878560 39118604 40278670 41018630 41138486 40988406
40628339 39468311 38548311 37958346

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 126

WWUS20 KWNS 112127
SEL6
SPC WW 112127
INZ000-KYZ000-120300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PORTION OF INDIANA
PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 530 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...WW 125...

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS DRIVING
EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT LINE OF INTENSIFYING LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
WRN IND. LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..HALES

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 125

WWUS20 KWNS 112048
SEL5
SPC WW 112048
ALZ000-GAZ000-120300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN AND PART OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL AND INTO WRN GA.
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REMAIN INTENSE AS IT LIFTS NNEWD
ACROSS SWRN GA. WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INTO CENTRAL
AL/GA AND SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN WW. IN
ADDITION TO TORNADOES...STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


..EVANS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0458

ACUS11 KWNS 112027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112027
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...

VALID 112027Z - 112130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL
INTO WRN/CENTRAL GA BY 21-22Z.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SEVERAL DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ACROSS CENTRAL AL TRACKING ENE AT 35 KT. AT THIS SPEED...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL AL /TO THE EAST OF WW 124/ BY
22Z. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS NRN-CENTRAL AL...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT
BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO SWRN GA /LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ IS AIDING IN
DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION...WITH E-W ORIENTED THERMAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY ERN EXTENT OF WARM FRONT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR
TORNADO THREAT EXTENDING EWD OF WW 124.

.PETERS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

31878841 33478770 35028655 34978512 34248455 33458442
33278314 32728272 31838298 30638345 30678543

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111954
SWODY1
SPC AC 111952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

..GULF STATES...

NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN CONFLUENT BUT
INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN AL INTO
ECNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOW RETURNING NWD ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WHICH SHOULD AID
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FOR THIS CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW...LONG
LIVED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO
WCNTRL GA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AL. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

..OH VALLEY...

A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF SFC FRONT ALONG THE IL/IND BORDER WHERE SFC-3 KM VALUES ARE NOW
APPROACHING 8 C/KM. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT MID LEVELS IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM...CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. FOR THIS REASON IT
APPEARS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS INSTABILITY.

.DARROW.. 04/11/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0457

ACUS11 KWNS 111904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111904
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN IL...W-CNTRL/SWRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111904Z - 112030Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE WITHIN RELATIVELY NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS AS TSTM COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 19Z...POWERFUL CYCLONE HAS LIFTED E/NEWD INTO W-CNTRL IL
AROUND 30 SE BRL. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED SWD...E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL AND SRN IND.
FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90 KT 500 MB JET MAX
EMANATING NE OVER WRN TN/KY HAS LIKELY AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL IL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD BE SPAWNED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS CU BECOME MORE
AGITATED SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE WEAK
/MLCAPES OF 250 TO 500 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR EVEN WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING OCCURRING AFTER WARM FRONT PASSAGE. DESPITE THIS LIMITING
FACTOR...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL. GIVEN RELATIVELY COLD MID/LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEVELOP INVOF THE NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY BACKED. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO THE SW /PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS AND SURFACE OBS/.

.GRAMS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

36828805 38498850 39458887 40228947 40668867 40268752
39298643 38428655 37098702

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0456

ACUS11 KWNS 111844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111844
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN/SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111844Z - 111945Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN-SERN AL
INTO SWRN GA.

SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL SSEWD TO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN
EXTENDED MORE EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.

AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TWO STORMS
OFFSHORE THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AT 20 W PFN AND 35 SW PFN...WITH BOTH
STORMS INDICATING LOW LEVEL ROTATION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AROUND
200 M2/S2/ ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29788433 29328503 29748590 30108650 30408693 31038756
31598770 31908695 31558560 31348470 30898388 29978340

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 124

WWUS20 KWNS 111842
SEL4
SPC WW 111842
ALZ000-MSZ000-120100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN
AL/CENTRAL MS. THIS WILL ALLOW EXPANDING AREA OF MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS.
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


..EVANS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SEWD INTO AZ
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIGGING FURTHER INTO SRN NM/NRN
MEXICO BY 13/12Z. THIS INTENSIFYING TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE KICKING NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING FEATURE...PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE
LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CERTAINLY
APPROACH THE LOWER 50S TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FREE PARCEL ASCENT AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS FAR WEST TX NEAR
THE NM BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT INTO THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH TIME...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AS LLJ IMPINGES ON WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...AND LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH TIME...AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING MODIFICATION.

.DARROW.. 04/11/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0455

ACUS11 KWNS 111716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111716
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-111815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111716Z - 111815Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN AL AND
MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN MS IS
BECOMING UNCAPPED GIVEN SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AND WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT WLY MID
LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY NWD FROM CENTRAL MS/NRN AL ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. VIS/IR IMAGERY INDICATED CU INCREASING
IN VERTICAL DEPTH SWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN MS. HOWEVER...WEAKER
DEEP LAYER ASCENT THIS FAR S AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.

BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
NERN-EAST CENTRAL MS INTO NWRN AL WHERE TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY
GREATER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND EXIST ALONG SRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ANY THAT CAN SUSTAIN A MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT.

.PETERS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

32088742 31918843 32428990 34418915 35818840 35928653
34918603 32408617

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111634
SWODY1
SPC AC 111632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH RIVER VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COAST STATES...

..MID SOUTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX SCENARIO EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MID WEST. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FAR SERN IA WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD INTO SRN IND AND SRN OH...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILS
SSWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT AND STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN END OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. PRIMARY
QUESTION WILL CENTER ON QUALITY OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AS CURRENT
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AOB 50F OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. NARROW
AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDS INTO FAR SERN IL
ATTM AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME N-NWWD EXPANSION EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING SHALLOW
MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND
STEEPNESS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS...WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER CORES.

..TN VALLEY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN COMPLICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY MOVING INTO NWRN MS INTO CENTRAL LA LATE THIS MORNING.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN WAKE OF GRAVITY WAVE NOW PUSHING EWD AND
DISSIPATING OVER NRN GA/CENTRAL AL/FAR SRN MS...WITH HEATING
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CAPPING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. EWD
EXPANSION OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HAMPERED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS AL...THOUGH GRADUAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW BROADER
AREA OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. REGION WILL REMAIN IN AREA OF
LIMITED OR NO DEEP ASCENT SOUTH OF UPPER JET AND STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADING THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS STRONG SSWLY LLJ LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY
LINES/SUPERCELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF
SCENARIO DIFFICULT TO PIN-DOWN AT THIS TIME GIVEN PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISKS REMAIN WARRANTED.

MAY SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS MIDDLE
TN INTO PORTIONS OF KY...BETWEEN CURRENT CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
AREAS. THOUGH MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION...STRONGER ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NWD AND GREATER HEATING WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 04/11/2007

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UPDATED Hazardous Weather Outlook TAE

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service tallahassee fl
1019 am edt wed apr 11 2007

...severe weather possible this afternoon...


this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
alabama...florida...south central georgia...southwest georgia and
gulf of mexico.

.day one...today and tonight
a weak cold front will approach the region from the west this
afternoon...with a narrow band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of this front. daytime
heating and increasing low level moisture will help destabilize
the atmosphere this afternoon as a warm front moves north across
the region. this increased instability will help generate some
fairly strong thunderstorms updrafts...and the increasing wind
speeds with height will help these updrafts rotate...enhancing the
threat for severe storms. the main severe weather threat for our
area be across southeast alabama and southwest georgia this
afternoon...especially after 1 pm cdt (2 pm edt). penny size hail
or greater and wind gusts near 60 mph will be possible with the
strongest storms...but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
there is some question as to whether this line of storms will
extend south into florida...and how far east the storms will reach
before weakening after sunset. still...a few storms could be
strong to severe in the florida panhandle and big bend.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday
a ridge of high pressure will bring fair and warm conditions to
the area on thursday and friday...before the next cold front
approaches the region by saturday afternoon. this system will
likely produce another round of showers and storms across the
area...before much cooler and drier air takes its place for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week.

.spotter information statement...
spotter activation is requested for this afternoon for southeast
alabama and southwest georgia.

fournier




AFFECTED COUNTIES:
IN ALABAMA: COFFEE, DALE, GENEVA, HENRY, HOUSTON. IN FLORIDA: BAY, CALHOUN, DIXIE, FRANKLIN, GADSDEN, GULF, HOLMES, JACKSON, JEFFERSON, LAFAYETTE, LEON, LIBERTY, MADISON, TAYLOR, WAKULLA, WALTON, WASHINGTON. IN GEORGIA: BAKER, BEN HILL, BERRIEN, BROOKS, CALHOUN, CLAY, COLQUITT, COOK, DECATUR, DOUGHERTY, EARLY, GRADY, IRWIN, LANIER, LEE, LOWNDES, MILLER, MITCHELL, QUITMAN, RANDOLPH, SEMINOLE, TERRELL, THOMAS, TIFT, TURNER, WORTH.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0452

ACUS11 KWNS 110937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110936
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-111130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN MS...NERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

VALID 110936Z - 111130Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES FOR REMAINING PORTIONS WW. BAND OF STG TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EWD NEARLY 40 KT ACROSS NRN MS. SVR POTENTIAL MAY DIMINISH AS
ACTIVITY NEARS ERN EDGE WW -- OVER NERN MS -- MOVING FARTHER FROM
SFC WARM FRONT AND ATOP PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER/MORE STABLE NEAR-SFC
AIR MASS. MEANWHILE WW SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM W-E FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY.

BUOYANCY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FARTHER S ACROSS NERN LA AND W-CENTRAL MS. SOME POTENTIAL LINGERS
FOR ACTIVITY BACKBUILDING SWWD TOWARD SFC WARM FRONT OR ALONG
LEADING UNDULAR WAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN LA. HOWEVER...WITH

1. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF WARM FRONT --
AND TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD WITH TIME LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS -- AND
2. STRONG MUCINH THAT MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...

PROBABILITIES FOR SVR S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY ARE BECOMING MORE
CONDITIONAL WITH TIME.

.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...

32179197 32989205 33259126 34299037 34988991 34878855
33838871 32958932 32918973 32048973 32059077 32409152

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 122

WWUS20 KWNS 110913
SEL2
SPC WW 110913
ARZ000-111100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
413 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 122 ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110851
SWOD48
SPC AC 110850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..AN ORGANIZED SVR TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST ON SAT-14 APR THROUGH
SUN-15 APR FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES EWD INTO THE SERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...

..DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MID-WEEK WILL WEAKEN INTO A POSITIVE-TILT WAVE LATE FRI-EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST...TN VLY...WRN GULF COAST STATES.
BUT...A STRONG JET STREAK DIGGING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S LATE SAT. THIS WILL ENERGIZE
THE TROUGH AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM NEAR WCNTRL AL
TO OFF THE NC/VA COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE OH VLY SWD INTO THE
WRN GULF COAST STATES EARLY SAT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...A WEDGE OF
MARITIME AIR WILL WORK NWD INTO SERN MS...AL AND PARTS OF GA SAT
AFTN. TSTMS MAY STRENGTHEN AS THE SECONDARY IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. THE STORMS WILL THEN SWEEP ESEWD THROUGH
GA INTO NRN/CNTRL FL BY SUNDAY AFTN. A SECONDARY THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST OF NC/SC SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.RACY.. 04/11/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110834
SWOD48
SPC AC 110834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..AN ORGANIZED SVR TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST ON SAT-14 APR THROUGH
SUN-15 APR FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES EWD INTO THE SERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...

..DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MID-WEEK WILL WEAKEN INTO A POSITIVE-TILT WAVE LATE FRI-EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST...TN VLY...WRN GULF COAST STATES.
BUT...A STRONG JET STREAK DIGGING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S LATE SAT. THIS WILL ENERGIZE
THE TROUGH AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM NEAR WCNTRL AL
TO OFF THE NC/VA COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE OH VLY SWD INTO THE
WRN GULF COAST STATES EARLY SAT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...A WEDGE OF
MARITIME AIR WILL WORK NWD INTO SERN MS...AL AND PARTS OF GA SAT
AFTN. TSTMS MAY STRENGTHEN AS THE SECONDARY IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. THE STORMS WILL THEN SWEEP ESEWD THROUGH
GA INTO NRN/CNTRL FL BY SUNDAY AFTN. A SECONDARY THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST OF NC/SC SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.RACY.. 04/11/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 123

WWUS20 KWNS 110756
SEL3
SPC WW 110756
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-111500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 255 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...

DISCUSSION...ERN/SRN AR SQLN...NRN PART OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E AT 40+ KTS.
EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS AREA OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH/JET
STREAK MOVE E IN TANDEM WITH STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.


..CORFIDI

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110733
SWODY3
SPC AC 110731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY...

..SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY...
THE STRONG UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SW ON THU WILL BODILY
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRI/FRI NIGHT AS WEAKER
PERTURBATIONS EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF IT.
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRI
ACROSS OK EWD INTO THE OZARKS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ENHANCED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
EARLY FRI MORNING.

THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH OF THE RED RVR DURING THE MORNING. BUT...AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NW TX AND
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM/MOIST
AIR NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MID-AFTN. AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
BACKBUILD SWD INTO THIS SLY LLJ AND ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPSTREAM...A TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVER
NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS BY
LATE AFTN.

ROUGHLY 60-70 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE SLY LLJ OF 45-50 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY VCNTY THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE INFLUX
OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS.

LATER IN THE EVENING...LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO
BACK AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS...KINEMATIC SET-UP MAY
BEGIN FAVORING EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY. DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADOES...HOWEVER...
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MORE
RICHER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS AND LA.

.RACY.. 04/11/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0451

ACUS11 KWNS 110720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110719
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-110915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN
LA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...

VALID 110719Z - 110915Z

BAND OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SVR BOW ECHO OVER
DALLAS/CLEVELAND COUNTES AR AS OF 715Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
TOWARD MS RIVER WITH SOME BACKBUILDING LIKELY OVER SRN AR AND
PERHAPS NERN LA. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW AND OVER
PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MS...WHERE SVR THREAT MAY BE MAINTAINED AND
ANOTHER WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN AR BETWEEN
TXK-PBF...PERHAPS COLLOCATED WITH BOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. SFC WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS NERN LA VICINITY MLU...TO NEAR
NEZ. WARM FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD 10-15 KT OVER NERN LA AND MORE
OF SWRN/W-CENTRAL MS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
ACROSS S-CENTRAL AR...SWWD OVER NWRN LA...WELL AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT IN NE TX. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING INVOF GRAVITY
WAVE BEHIND WHICH PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE WAS NOTED AROUND TYR
BETWEEN 5-6Z. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF
40-50 KT LLJ NEAR LFK-GLH LINE...WITH ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY ATOP WARM FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN MCS ACROSS SRN AR INTO WRN MS...WITH COMBINED
PROPAGATIONAL/TRANSLATIONAL COMPONENT PROBABLY TAKING MOST INTENSE
PART ESEWD TOWARD GLH-GWO REGION. FARTHER N...EXPECT WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT STILL SOME SVR THREAT...AND FARTHER S...LARGER
BUOYANCY BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING.

.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33149364 33929324 34289247 34949156 34749042 33949003
33219006 32729075 32789194 32809245

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0450

ACUS11 KWNS 110606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110606
FLZ000-110800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS...FAR SERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FROM HST SWD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110606Z - 110800Z

DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS KEYS
THROUGH 8Z. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA AFFECTED
IN SPACE AND TIME. POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WITH MOST
INTENSE CELLS OVER LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS...WHERE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS
IS SFC-BASED ALONG AND SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

AT 545Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER S FL CONVECTION WAS ANALYZED
FROM 40 SE HST WWD TO NEAR LOWER MATECUMBE KEY...THEN WNWWD ACROSS
FL BAY TO APPROXIMATELY 10 SSE CAPE SABLE. PORTION OF BOUNDARY OVER
AND N OF UPPER KEYS IS BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY...AND MAY RETREAT
SLIGHTLY NEWD THROUGH ISLAMORADA BEFORE BEING FORCED SWD AGAIN BY
OUTFLOW FROM CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER SWRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. BAND
OF TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS OF 545Z EXTENDS FROM
ABOUT 25 NNW EYW ACROSS MARQUESAS KEYS THEN SWWD. STRONGEST PORTION
MOVING EWD 25-30 KT WILL CROSS WRN FL BAY...PERHAPS REACHING
MIDDLE-UPPER KEYS IN 730-830Z TIME FRAME. CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND NEWER/TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM FL BAY CONVECTION ALSO MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS.

AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE...SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 70S AND DEW
POINTS MID 70S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG FROM
MODIFIED EYW RAOB. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE EACH DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
NEWD INTO SRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HOWEVER OUTFLOW POOL FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW STG GUSTS TO PENETRATE
TO SFC. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM EYW VWP SUPPORT MIXED
SUPERCELL/BOW MODE WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
40-450 KT.

.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

24468210 24758190 24938187 25118092 25358048 25468026
25478016 25128038 24808078 24638118 24498187

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110558
SWODY1
SPC AC 110557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH
VALLEY REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO
THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION.

AS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFT
EWD...A COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM MO
INTO LOWER MI THROUGH THE PERIOD -- WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION -- AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..THE SOUTHEAST...
A LINEAR BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY/WRN TN
SWWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO SERN AR/NRN LA. WHILE MARGINAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...GREATER DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD THE GULF COAST...AS LIMITED
HEATING AND GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDS MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST NEARER THE GULF COAST...STRONGER LARGE-SCALE UVV -- AND MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION -- SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AS CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
JET AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD
INTO/ACROSS AL...AND REMAIN VIGOROUS INTO GA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
NEWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AS NELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING E OF THE
APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERSISTENTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ATTM...STORM MODE REMAINS A QUESTION -- BUT LIKELY WILL BE SOME
COMBINATION OF LINEAR AND SUPERCELLULAR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
PARTS OF AL AND VICINITY...WITH SOME UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES
POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS AS EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.

..OH VALLEY REGION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL INITIALLY. IT APPEARS ATTM
THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DRY SLOT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF IN/KY/OH DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/INVOF SURFACE FRONTAL OCCLUSION.
THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /LIKELY AROUND
50 F/...HEATING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
/-24 TO -26 C AT H5/ SPREADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED
STORMS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STORMS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT VEERED BOUNDARY-LAYER
FLOW ANTICIPATED...STRONG BUT SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS A
HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WHERE
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE SELY.

DEPENDING UPON ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO AND ASSOCIATED
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE COULD
OCCUR IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING LINES.
ATTM...HOWEVER...WILL TAKE A LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH AS IT WOULD
SEEM THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY -- AND THUS INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT. POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

.GOSS/CROSBIE.. 04/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110558
SWODY2
SPC AC 110556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE UPR FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THU. POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD...REACHING THE GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THU
NIGHT. STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SEWD TO NRN FL...NRN GULF BASIN AND DEEP S TX BY 12Z THU.
MEANWHILE...A NEW IMPULSE...NOW APPROACHING 40N/130W...WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE DESERT SW BY THU EVE. AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING SYSTEM...A
WEAKER JETLET WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THU AFTN/EVE. TAIL
END OF THE FRONT ALONG DEEP S TX WILL REDEVELOP NWD...LIKELY
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN TX TO THE UPR TX COAST BY LATE THU
EVE.

..SRN PLAINS...
ECMWF LONG-STANDING SUGGESTION OF A DEEP COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO
TX AND THE GULF COAST SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE
RESULT WILL BE FOR A DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SRN PLAINS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BY LATE AFTN THU...40S DEW POINTS WILL BE
COMMON INTO THE SERN TX PNHDL AND SWRN OK...WITH PERHAPS 50S AS FAR
N AS I-20 IN CNTRL/W TX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
WEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT MLCAPES WILL BE PROBABLY REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG. ISOLD TSTMS WILL STILL BE LIKELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NWRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SERN TX PNHDL INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ANY
STORM THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD EVOLVE INTO HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

MAIN PART OF THE UPR TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD
WILL DEEPEN THE SFC LOW AND STRENGTHEN THE DRYLINE. BY THIS
TIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED AND TSTMS WILL EXPAND
N-S ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...EVENING ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ENEWD INTO OK AND N TX ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ THU NIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN YIELDING LARGE HAIL WITH SOME STORMS. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SFC-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY EVOLVE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE OVERNIGHT IN W OR NW TX. THESE STORMS WOULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS TORNADO THREATS.

.RACY.. 04/11/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 122

WWUS20 KWNS 110448
SEL2
SPC WW 110448
ARZ000-111100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF HOT
SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AND EVEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK. A FEED OF SOMEWHAT
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM LA INTO SRN/ERN AR OVERNIGHT MAY
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION N OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT
LATER TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.


..THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0449

ACUS11 KWNS 110425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110424
ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-110600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 110424Z - 110600Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...NOW
SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND TAKE ON INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFICATION OF 500 MB JET STREAK /FROM 80
TO 100 KT/ DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND
DEEPENING OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF.

LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN A NARROW
TONGUE ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. AND...LATEST RUC40 SUGGESTS THIS
IS BEING LIFTED ABOVE WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVERNIGHT. THUS...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST
FOR EXPANSION...FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME...AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY NOT LIFT
NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAINFALL CORE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.KERR.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34219417 35619248 36329172 36209036 35729010 34429065
33549115 33079172 32979264 33169368 33399423

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