SWODY1
SPC AC 111952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...
..GULF STATES...
NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN CONFLUENT BUT
INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN AL INTO
ECNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOW RETURNING NWD ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WHICH SHOULD AID
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FOR THIS CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW...LONG
LIVED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO
WCNTRL GA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AL. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
..OH VALLEY...
A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF SFC FRONT ALONG THE IL/IND BORDER WHERE SFC-3 KM VALUES ARE NOW
APPROACHING 8 C/KM. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT MID LEVELS IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM...CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. FOR THIS REASON IT
APPEARS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS INSTABILITY.
.DARROW.. 04/11/2007
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