Wednesday, October 30, 2013

KCYS [301756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 301756
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 AM SNOW 5 NE CHEYENNE 41.20N 104.72W
10/30/2013 M1.8 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0600 AM SNOW 17 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.09W
10/30/2013 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0600 AM SNOW 2 ENE CHEYENNE 41.16N 104.76W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0600 AM SNOW 6 WSW BURNS 41.16N 104.47W
10/30/2013 M1.1 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0600 AM SNOW 2 ESE CHEYENNE 41.13N 104.76W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 7 N LARAMIE 41.41N 105.58W
10/30/2013 M3.0 INCH ALBANY WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW S LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2013 M3.0 INCH ALBANY WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW NNE LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2013 M3.0 INCH ALBANY WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 1 SE LARAMIE 41.30N 105.57W
10/30/2013 M2.6 INCH ALBANY WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 9 E CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.62W
10/30/2013 M1.7 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 5 W CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.89W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 3 NNE CARPENTER 41.07N 104.32W
10/30/2013 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNW CHEYENNE 41.20N 104.82W
10/30/2013 M3.0 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 2 E CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.75W
10/30/2013 M2.2 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 20 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.04N 105.22W
10/30/2013 M3.7 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW NW FORT LARAMIE 42.21N 104.52W
10/30/2013 M1.5 INCH GOSHEN WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 3 W VETERAN 41.96N 104.41W
10/30/2013 M1.2 INCH GOSHEN WY COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNE CHEYENNE 41.17N 104.78W
10/30/2013 M2.3 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982

ACUS11 KWNS 301745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301745
TXZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301745Z - 301915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX
NNWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN INTENSIFY AND BECOME
ORGANIZED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE HOUSTON AREA INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S F IN SE TX TO THE UPPER
60S F ACROSS NCNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH HAS ENABLED SFC TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS HAS HELPED ENHANCE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF
SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS THE MCD AREA DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND ECMWF. ALSO...SFC WINDS ARE
BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. THIS IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45
TO 50 KT RANGE....SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO RESULT IN
A POTENTIAL FOR WET DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33519767 33269695 32539677 31799667 31439651 30969554
30459509 29849516 29569558 29569691 29819795 30569858
31599890 32679898 33339849 33519767

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KLSX [301733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 301733
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1233 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HAIL MOUNT STERLING 39.98N 90.76W
10/30/2013 E0.25 INCH BROWN IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL... A FEW STONES A LITTLE BIT
LARGER.


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301727
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES...WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS/UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF SVR POTENTIAL
CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY CONVECTION AND
THE RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE DAY.

THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A SEWD MOVING MCS MAY ALSO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WITH
PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS.
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACQUIRES A
NEGATIVE TILT...WITH A BELT OF 60-70 KT 700 MB FLOW BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. THE
STRONGLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAT CAN
EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG/ POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX/MESSY
INITIALLY PRECEDING AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL/FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND AN ACCELERATING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DETAILS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...A CONTINUOUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY SHIFT EWD ATTENDANT TO A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
DMGG WINDS...BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SRH PRESENT. THE
LINE SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS/UPPER OH VALLEY...EVENTUALLY OUTRUNNING RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT AT LEAST SOME WIND/TORNADO
THREAT MAY CONTINUE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-/MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS.

..ROGERS.. 10/30/2013

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KCYS [301719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 301719
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1110 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1040 AM SNOW 13 NE GUERNSEY 42.40N 104.56W
10/30/2013 M4.0 INCH GOSHEN WY PUBLIC

1020 AM FREEZING RAIN 33 N LUSK 43.24N 104.45W
10/30/2013 E0.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY PUBLIC

UNKNOWN DEPTH OF ICE.


&&

$$

RUBIN

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KEAX [301658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301658
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL 1 W COSBY 39.86N 94.70W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH ANDREW MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JL

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KLSX [301653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 301653
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1152 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 AM HAIL QUINCY 39.93N 91.39W
10/30/2013 E0.25 INCH ADAMS IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [301651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 301651
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1151 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HAIL 2 N NEW LONDON 39.61N 91.40W
10/30/2013 E0.50 INCH RALLS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [301649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 301649
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1149 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1149 AM HAIL QUINCY 39.93N 91.39W
10/30/2013 E0.25 INCH ADAMS IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KGID [301637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 301637
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1137 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM HAIL CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH MERRICK NE PUBLIC

REPORT RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.

0554 AM HAIL CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH MERRICK NE 911 CALL CENTER

ON-GOING AT THE PRESENT TIME.

0555 AM HAIL 1 NNE CENTRAL CITY 41.13N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH MERRICK NE MESONET

REPORT FROM NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION
NETWORK OBSERVER.

0615 AM HAIL 4 NE STROMSBURG 41.16N 97.54W
10/30/2013 E1.25 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE FELL AROUND 615 THIS
MORNING. THE GROUND WAS ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERED. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0619 AM HAIL OSCEOLA 41.18N 97.55W
10/30/2013 E0.50 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

NWS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

0620 AM HAIL SHELBY 41.19N 97.43W
10/30/2013 E1.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL RIGHT IN TOWN.

0625 AM HAIL 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W
10/30/2013 E1.25 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL WAS AT LEAST HALF DOLLAR SIZE. COOP OBSERVER WENT TO
MEASURE PRECIP AROUND 830 AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS
STILL ON THE GROUND.


&&

$$

REED

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301632
SWODY1
SPC AC 301630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VLY/ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48
THROUGH THU. POSITIVE-TILT UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER THE RCKYS/ERN GRT
BASIN SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TNGT AND THU AS JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK CONTINUES E INTO BC. THIS SET-UP SHOULD
DRIVE STRONG UPR VORT IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NOW OVER NRN
AZ...EWD ACROSS NM TNGT AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/NW OK BY 12Z
THU...STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PLNS.

IN THE MEAN TIME...A BROAD SWATH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST...LOW-LVL
CONFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLNS NNE INTO THE MID-MS
VLY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE UPR TROUGH...AND E
OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLNS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ATOP
THE MOIST CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT WITH AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SUSTAINED STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS/EPISODES OF STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A
LARGE PART OF TX E/NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF KS/MO AND
THE MID MS VLY.

...SRN PLNS NEWD INTO KS/MO/IA/IL...AND THE ARKLATEX...
AS IMPLIED ABOVE...SCTD SVR THREATS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDELY
DISTRIBUTED IN SPACE AND TIME THIS PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...AND WITH THE
OVERALL SVR RISK GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR DIFFUSE W-E
WARM FRONT IN NRN MO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLD SVR
HAIL/WIND INTO THE AFTN /REF WW 549/. AS ASSOCIATED LEAD UPR IMPULSE
CONTINUES NNEWD ACROSS NEB/SD...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
MO SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND VEER INTO THE AFTN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ISOLD SVR WEATHER /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL/...COULD SPREAD
ENE INTO THE MID MS VLY.

FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT FROM ERN KS SSW THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK
INTO WRN AND NRN TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. WHILE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGE OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH LATE TODAY...MODEST SFC HEATING OF SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR...CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH ALL SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND LIKELY INCREASE IN THE FLOW
THROUGH THIS EVE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COMPLEX MIX OF STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT ARE NOT APPARENT ATTM...BUT SOME
RISK WILL EXIST NONETHELESS. LATER TNGT AND...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...STORMS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTH AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE EWD ACCELERATION
OF AZ/NM UPR VORT.

STILL FARTHER S...AND SE...A SEPARATE SVR THREAT MAY ARISE OVER
CNTRL AND E TX...WHERE EXISTING WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE/BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA
2 INCHES/ WITH SUBSTANTIALLY-INCREASED 850-700 MB FLOW LATE IN
PERIOD SUGGESTS AN INCREASING RISK FOR LEWP STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER PARTS OF E TX AND PERHAPS THE
ARKLATEX TOWARD DAYBREAK.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/30/2013

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KEAX [301625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301625
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WNW ELWOOD 39.77N 94.91W
10/30/2013 M51 MPH BUCHANAN MO ASOS

ST JOSEPH ASOS

1120 AM HAIL 5 ENE COUNTRY CLUB VILL 39.87N 94.74W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH ANDREW MO TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO QUARTER-SIZE HAIL NEAR AVENUE CITY AREA


&&

$$

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KEAX [301618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301618
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1118 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1116 AM HAIL ST. JOSEPH 39.77N 94.85W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH BUCHANAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KEAX [301559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301559
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM HAIL TROY 39.79N 95.09W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH DONIPHAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL INCREASED FROM NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE BETWEEN 1050
AND 1055 AM.


&&

$$

SAW

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 549

WWUS20 KWNS 301546
SEL9
SPC WW 301546
KSZ000-MOZ000-302200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1045 AM
UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE IN AREA OF SUSTAINED LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PART OF UPR IMPULSE EJECTING NNE
ACROSS NEB/SD. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOIST INFLOW...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED BY
LOW-LVL UPLIFT NEAR W-E...OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT OVER NRN MO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...CORFIDI

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KLSX [301525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 301525
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM HAIL SHELBINA 39.69N 92.04W
10/30/2013 E0.25 INCH SHELBY MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KEAX [301524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301524
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1024 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM TSTM WND GST 5 NE MUSCOTAH 39.60N 95.45W
10/30/2013 E60 MPH ATCHISON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JL

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KLSX [301522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 301522
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1022 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1003 AM HAIL 6 WNW SHELBINA 39.73N 92.14W
10/30/2013 M0.50 INCH SHELBY MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

FUCHS

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KTOP [301517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 301517
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1017 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0956 AM HAIL WETMORE 39.63N 95.81W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH NEMAHA KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WETMORE BY
PUBLIC.


&&

$$

COMITT

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KCYS [301459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 301459
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 AM SNOW 11 NE CHUGWATER 41.87N 104.67W
10/30/2013 M3.5 INCH PLATTE WY PUBLIC

0847 AM SNOW 3 NE CHEYENNE 41.18N 104.75W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

RUBIN

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KGJT [301443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 301443
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
843 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 AM SNOW 9 NE CRAIG 40.61N 107.43W
10/30/2013 E1.0 INCH MOFFAT CO PUBLIC

RECD REPORT OF 1 INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301771

$$

RENWICK

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KPUB [301442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 301442
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
842 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM SNOW WOLF CREEK PASS 37.48N 106.80W
10/30/2013 E6.0 INCH MINERAL CO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

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KGJT [301440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 301440
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
840 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM SNOW RIDGWAY 38.16N 107.75W
10/30/2013 E2.0 INCH OURAY CO PUBLIC

RECD REPORT OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW HALFWAY UP
LOGHILL MESA ABOVE RIDGWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301770

$$

RENWICK

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KOAX [301437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301437
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
937 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM HAIL PLATTSMOUTH 41.01N 95.89W
10/30/2013 E0.75 INCH CASS NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PEARSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1981

ACUS11 KWNS 301429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301429
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NCNTRL MO...NE KS...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301429Z - 301600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SW IA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO WRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS FAR NW MO INTO NE KS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE AXIS OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH 50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. THIS
FACTOR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE THE MAIN
THREAT LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOME EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE STORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER MAY BECOME
SFC-BASED SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE. FOR
THIS REASON...THE STORMS IN NE KS AND SE NEB ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUING.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER EWD NEAR THE MS RIVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THERE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38859269 38699130 39229071 39979062 40599154 41379307
41659511 41479571 40919630 39689645 39079590 39019522
38859269

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KEAX [301422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301422
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HAIL 2 E BEVIER 39.75N 92.53W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH MACON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0919 AM TSTM WND GST 2 E BEVIER 39.75N 92.53W
10/30/2013 E55.00 MPH MACON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

JL

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KGID [301416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301416
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
916 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM HAIL 4 NE STROMSBURG 41.16N 97.54W
10/30/2013 E1.25 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE FELL AROUND 615 THIS
MORNING. THE GROUND WAS ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERED. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$

SALTZMAN

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KOAX [301407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301407
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
907 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM HAIL MANLEY 40.92N 96.17W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH CASS NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KGID [301358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301358
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM HAIL SHELBY 41.19N 97.43W
10/30/2013 E1.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL RIGHT IN TOWN.


&&

$$

ODER

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KGID [301356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301356
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
856 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W
10/30/2013 E1.25 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL WAS AT LEAST HALF DOLLAR SIZE. COOP OBSERVER WENT TO
MEASURE PRECIP AROUND 830 AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS
STILL ON THE GROUND.


&&

$$

SALTZMAN

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KBOU [301356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 301356
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
756 AM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM SNOW 1 SE BUCKHORN MOUNTAIN 40.60N 105.31W
10/30/2013 M1.4 INCH LARIMER CO PUBLIC

0611 AM SNOW 1 NW NIWOT 40.10N 105.17W
10/30/2013 M0.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 AM SNOW 21 N NEW RAYMER 40.91N 103.83W
10/30/2013 M0.5 INCH WELD CO PUBLIC

0630 AM SNOW 7 NNE PURCELL 40.72N 104.52W
10/30/2013 M0.6 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 5 ENE EATON 40.55N 104.62W
10/30/2013 M0.0 INCH WELD CO PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW 1 SSE ESTES PARK 40.36N 105.51W
10/30/2013 M1.4 INCH LARIMER CO PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW 1 SE WELLINGTON 40.69N 104.99W
10/30/2013 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO PUBLIC

0715 AM SNOW 7 ENE VIRGINIA DALE 40.99N 105.23W
10/30/2013 M2.8 INCH LARIMER CO PUBLIC

0719 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
10/30/2013 M2.0 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KBOWEN

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KEAX [301351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301351
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
851 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 AM TSTM WND GST BROOKFIELD 39.79N 93.08W
10/30/2013 E60 MPH LINN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JL

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KEAX [301349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301349
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
849 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 AM TSTM WND GST LACLEDE 39.79N 93.17W
10/30/2013 E60.00 MPH LINN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN IN HIS YARD


&&

$$

JL

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KEAX [301347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301347
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
847 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 AM HAIL BROOKFIELD 39.79N 93.08W
10/30/2013 M0.88 INCH LINN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0842 AM HAIL 2 N BROOKFIELD 39.81N 93.08W
10/30/2013 E0.75 INCH LINN MO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

BOOKBINDER

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KOAX [301336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301336
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
836 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 AM HAIL WAVERLY 40.91N 96.53W
10/30/2013 M1.00 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KOAX [301330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301330
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
830 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 56TH AND O STREET.


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KOAX [301329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301329
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
829 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
10/30/2013 E1.25 INCH LANCASTER NE AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZED HAIL OBSERVED WITH SOME AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLAR. LASTED FOR 5 MINUTES.

0817 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KOAX [301324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 301324
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
824 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KEAX [301301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301301
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
801 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HAIL CHILLICOTHE 39.79N 93.55W
10/30/2013 M1.00 INCH LIVINGSTON MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

GAMIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301255
SWODY1
SPC AC 301253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO SW TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER-AIR FACTOR FOR THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND WILL BE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH -- NOW MANIFEST AS NNE-SSW-ELONGATED
CYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
REGIONS. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN-WAVE BUT STILL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH
PERIOD. STG BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER LAS REGION -- IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS AZ
TODAY...REACHING SWRN CO...NWRN NM AND SERN AZ BY 00Z...THEN
STRENGTHENING AND ACCELERATING EWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...COPIOUS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NEWD OFF WHAT IS NOW NERN PAC T.D. RAYMOND...OVER NRN MEX AND
MUCH OF TX/OK/AR/LA.

AT SFC...STG/INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM
LOW OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS AND NWRN OK
TO NRN TX PANHANDLE...TO ANOTHER LOW OVER SERN CO. PAC COLD FRONT
WAS EVIDENT FROM THAT LOW SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM. LATTER FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...THEN BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH
TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...OVERTAKING DRYLINE FROM N-S ACROSS
SRN HIGH PLAINS. BY 12Z...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NRN
OK...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS W TX.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
SE-NW ALIGNED BELT OF SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL CORES
POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN...IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND
LOWER MO VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEWD OUT OF PORTIONS CENTRAL KS...ALSO N OF SFC FRONT. REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...THREE RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS OF POTENTIAL NOW ARE
APPARENT WITHIN WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS AS POORLY
FOCUSED...CONVECTIVELY MESSY AND VERY BROAD SVR RISK AREA.

1. CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/SE TX INTO OK THROUGH AFTN...
THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LLJ AND RELATED
WAA/MOISTURE-TRANSPORT PROCESS...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING DEEP
SHEAR. EPISODES OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS IN
CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS
AREA...INCREASING OVERALL IN COVERAGE. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT TODAY ON ITS WRN FRINGES AS
A. LLJ REPLENISHES LOW-LEVEL THETAE AWAY FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND
B. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DIFFUSE DIABATIC HEATING YIELDS
STEADILY INCREASING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH LATE AFTN.

2. EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR FROM SW TX TO SRN OK...
DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND SHEAR EACH WILL INCREASE...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS
COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. THIS PROCESS SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH WEAK CINH...BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN SUPPORT OF MOSTLY CLUSTERED TO
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION. THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND...MLCAPE/MUCAPE
IN 1500-2000 J/KG MAY BE ATTAINABLE AWAY FROM PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE AREAS. LLJ WILL KEEP 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AND HODOGRAPH
LARGE...THOUGH WEAKNESSES ABOVE THAT MAY LIMIT TOTAL LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. STILL...CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT ON TOP OF
WIND/HAIL THREAT...DEPENDENT LARGELY ON MAINTENANCE OF ANY EMBEDDED
OR DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES THAT CAN DEVELOP.

3. PORTIONS SRN KS...WRN OK AND W TX TONIGHT...
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS SRN HIGH
PLAINS...HEIGHT/THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY
AND ADVANCE EWD AMIDST PRONOUNCED DCVA AND STG HEIGHT FALLS.
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AOA 140-KT 250-MB JET STREAK WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP SHEAR...
LAPSE RATES AND LIFT OVER WRN FRINGES OF WARM/MOIST SECTOR AFTER
DARK. BAND OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY
FORM...OFFERING SVR HAIL...OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOW BUT NONZERO
TORNADO RISK.

WHILE THOSE REGIMES REPRESENT MOST PROBABLE SOURCES OF ORGANIZED SVR
CONVECTION...PLEASE BEAR IN MIND THAT STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL
SPREAD OVER SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MRGLLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR ALL PERIOD LONG. AS SUCH...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR OF ANY TYPE
CAN OCCUR IN BETWEEN...ANYWHERE OVER OUTLOOK AREA...THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/30/2013

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KEAX [301243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301243
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
743 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HAIL 1 W GALLATIN 39.91N 93.98W
10/30/2013 M1.25 INCH DAVIESS MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KEAX [301233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301233
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
733 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 AM HAIL GALLATIN 39.91N 93.96W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH DAVIESS MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDUX

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KGID [301216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301216
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
716 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 AM HAIL 1 NNE CENTRAL CITY 41.13N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH MERRICK NE MESONET

REPORT FROM NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION
NETWORK OBSERVER.


&&

$$

ODER

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KGID [301204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGID 301204
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
704 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

CORRECTED - NWS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
COVERING THE GROUND 3 MILES NE OF SHELBY.


&&

$$

REED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1980

ACUS11 KWNS 301145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301145
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/KS...NRN MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301145Z - 301345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY AN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
NOSE OF A SWLY 850 MB LLJ...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING IN CNTRL KS.
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT FROM FAR NW OK TO ICT TOWARDS A WEAK
CYCLONE INVOF STJ. WITHIN AN EML PLUME AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY A 06Z LAMONT OK RAOB...WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL IN SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH
THE MO VALLEY CONVECTION GENERALLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE PLUME OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
HAIL MAY EMANATE OUT OF THE CNTRL KS CONVECTION. BUT AN OVERALL
CLUSTERED STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO BELOW SIGNIFICANT
THRESHOLDS.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 41879675 41539481 40659307 40009245 39549228 39039263
39009336 39149461 38459607 38169696 38169784 38359814
39629748 40529732 41259756 41579755 41879675

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KGID [301143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301143
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W
10/30/2013 E1.00 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

NWS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS QUARTER INCH HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND 3 MILES NE OF SHELBY.


&&

$$

REED

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KGID [301127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301127
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
627 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM HAIL OSCEOLA 41.18N 97.55W
10/30/2013 E0.50 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

NWS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.


&&

$$

REED

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KGID [301121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301121
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM HAIL CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH MERRICK NE PUBLIC

REPORT RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.


&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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KGID [301054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 301054
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 AM HAIL CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
10/30/2013 E0.88 INCH MERRICK NE 911 CALL CENTER

ON-GOING AT THE PRESENT TIME.


&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300839
SWOD48
SPC AC 300839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVALENCE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF FL.

MEANWHILE...GRADUAL LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING/QUALITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE. THIS
SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 6-8
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

..GUYER.. 10/30/2013

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