DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050450
SWODY1
SPC AC 050449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SEWD...MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD TO THE CENTRAL STATES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WEAK LAPSE RATES IN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MARITIME AIR AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 500 MB WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/DEPTH.

..HURLBUT.. 11/05/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050047
SWODY1
SPC AC 050046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY REGION TO GA...AND
RIDGE OVER ROCKIES. SLOW-MOVING LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NRN BAHAMAS WSWWD ACROSS S FL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD.

...S FL...
UNMODIFIED 00Z EYW/MFL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO REPRESENT MARINE AIR MASS
THAT WILL BE SHUNTED LARGELY OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND FL OVERNIGHT BY
LAND-BREEZE PROCESSES ALONG/S OF FRONT...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER OF
ELY/NELY FLOW FROM SFC-700 MB MAY BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME INLAND MAINTENANCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH-THETAE AIR OVER
PORTIONS S FL. SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE INTO
MID-UPPER LEVEL ICING LAYERS TO POSE MRGL TSTM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR VERY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED...GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2009

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KUNR [042153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 042153
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
253 PM MST WED NOV 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM SNOW 15 NNE RECLUSE 44.95N 105.64W
10/11/2009 E2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

2-3 INCHES

0636 PM SNOW 8 NW ROCKYPOINT 44.99N 105.20W
10/11/2009 E3.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0638 PM SNOW 10 N DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.44N 105.48W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM SNOW 5 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.24N 105.43W
10/11/2009 E2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

2-3 INCHES

0643 PM SNOW 3 ENE ROCHELLE 43.61N 104.90W
10/11/2009 E0.5 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0644 PM SNOW 4 S INYAN KARA MOUNTAIN 44.16N 104.35W
10/11/2009 E0.5 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM SNOW 2 NE ROCKYPOINT 44.92N 105.07W
10/11/2009 E5.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0646 PM SNOW 13 NE NEWELL 44.84N 103.22W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH BUTTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0649 PM SNOW 7 SE MUD BUTTE 44.93N 102.77W
10/11/2009 E0.5 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM SNOW 7 NNE ROCKYPOINT 44.99N 105.05W
10/11/2009 E5.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0653 PM SNOW 4 N DOWNTOWN BELLE FOUR 44.73N 103.85W
10/11/2009 E0.5 INCH BUTTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM SNOW 6 NNW EDGEMONT 43.38N 103.87W
10/11/2009 E0.8 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

LESS THAN 1 INCH

0655 PM SNOW 2 SE COLONY 44.85N 104.12W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0658 PM SNOW 15 NNW ALVA 44.90N 104.56W
10/11/2009 E2.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0659 PM SNOW 2 NNE ARDMORE 43.05N 103.65W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM SNOW 5 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH 44.50N 103.96W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0707 PM SNOW 4 WSW DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.39N 103.59W
10/11/2009 E1.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0708 PM SNOW 2 WSW BROWNSVILLE 44.26N 103.74W
10/11/2009 E1.5 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 PM SNOW 4 NE ROCKERVILLE 44.00N 103.31W
10/11/2009 E2.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JSCHILD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041927
SWODY1
SPC AC 041925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO
1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009/

TSTM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN SRN FL AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
VA/NC. 12Z MFL/EYW RAOBS BOTH SAMPLED AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
TSTM ACTIVITY. FARTHER N...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY THU. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS...MEAGER
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL NC/VA AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW
TSTMS INITIATING OVERLAND BEFORE THE THREAT SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041705
SWODY2
SPC AC 041704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS JET CORE SAGS SEWD INTO ORE AFTER 06/00Z. PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST WHICH
WOULD EASILY SUPPORT LIGHTNING DISCHARGE FOR CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 500 MB.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TSTM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN SRN FL AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
VA/NC. 12Z MFL/EYW RAOBS BOTH SAMPLED AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
TSTM ACTIVITY. FARTHER N...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY THU. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS...MEAGER
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL NC/VA AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW
TSTMS INITIATING OVERLAND BEFORE THE THREAT SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

..GRAMS/EVANS.. 11/04/2009

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KCHS [041540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 041540
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.86W
11/04/2009 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLICE OFFICER REPORTED SALT WATER ALONG LONG POINT ROAD
BUT ROAD REMAINED PASSABLE.

&&

$$

JHP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041223
SWODY1
SPC AC 041221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET CONVECTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OVER
THE UNITED STATES. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOWLY INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

..HART/SMITH.. 11/04/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040949
SWOD48
SPC AC 040949

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

IT NOW SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
...WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW...WILL APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURE ...EITHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER INLAND OF COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LARGE VARIABILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN...AND INTERACTION AMONG...THE BELTS OF WESTERLIES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/04/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE. LITTLE AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET IS
PROGGED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE NOSE OF THIS
FEATURE PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
PROGGED TO SPLIT OFF THE MAIN BELT OF FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY THAT...AS THIS FEATURE DIGS TOWARD A WEAKER BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

DESPITE THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE...LINGERING
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY/ FRIDAY
NIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/04/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040528
SWODY1
SPC AC 040527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST
AREAS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE FAR SRN PART OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 11/04/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040521
SWODY2
SPC AC 040520

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST TUE NOV 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT
UPPER FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC BY THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
STREAK NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE AND CONSOLIDATING...DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ GULF OF ALASKA...AS WELL AS
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG
WITH DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. HIGH
PLAINS.

AS THIS ALL OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG DIGGING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
RETURN FLOW INLAND. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS.

..KERR.. 11/04/2009

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