Wednesday, November 4, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050450
SWODY1
SPC AC 050449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SEWD...MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD TO THE CENTRAL STATES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WEAK LAPSE RATES IN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MARITIME AIR AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 500 MB WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/DEPTH.

..HURLBUT.. 11/05/2009

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