Friday, September 25, 2009

KLMK [260351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 260351
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1151 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW LEXINGTON 38.61N 85.67W
09/25/2009 M2.00 INCH SCOTT IN MESONET

TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN 2 HOURS REPORTED BY A KENTUCKY
MESONET SITE SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900152

$$

JSD

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KLMK [260335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 260335
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1131 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009...CORRECTION TO COUNTY

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S LEXINGTON 37.97N 84.50W
09/25/2009 FAYETTE KY EMERGENCY
MNGR

FOUR INTERSECTIONS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LEXINGTON
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING THE INTERSECTION OF
TATES CREEK ROAD AND GAINESVILLE DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900151

$$

JSD

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KLMK [260331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 260331
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1131 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S LEXINGTON 38.58N 85.62W
09/25/2009 CLARK IN EMERGENCY MNGR

FOUR INTERSECTIONS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LEXINGTON
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING THE INTERSECTION OF
TATES CREEK ROAD AND GAINESVILLE DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900151

$$

JSD

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KLMK [260325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 260325
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1124 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW KEENE 37.90N 84.67W
09/25/2009 JESSAMINE KY EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER REPORTED WAIST DEEP ACROSS STATE HIGHWAY 33 NEAR
THE JESSAMINE...WOODFORD COUNTY LINE. OTHER ROADS
REPORTED FLOODED NEAR KEENE. LEXINGTON NEWS REPORTED
ONGOING WATER RESCUE IN NORTHERN JESSAMINE COUNTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900150

$$

JSD

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KTOP [260314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 260314
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1014 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM HAIL 3 SSW AUBURN 38.86N 95.83W
09/25/2009 M0.88 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SALLY

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KLUB [260207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 260207
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
907 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TULIA 34.55N 101.74W
09/25/2009 M61 MPH SWISHER TX MESONET

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CB UPDRAFT APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES
NORTHEAST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900672

$$

MCQUEEN

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KJKL [260120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 260120
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
919 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FLASH FLOOD ORLANDO 37.37N 84.27W
09/25/2009 ROCKCASTLE KY PUBLIC

WATER OVER A BRIDGE ALONG HIGHWAY 1912 JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 1004.


&&

$$

GEOGERIAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260051
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD
THROUGH WRN OK AND CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BAND
OF DEEP LIFT ATTENDING A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW.
THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.


...TN VALLEY REGION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND
SRN OH VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING ASCENT RESULTING FROM
AN UPPER SPEED MAX THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN 40+ KT BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TN VALLEY...LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK WITH DEEP MOIST
PROFILES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORECAST LIMITED LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE TO THE FORCING AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH 700 MB WILL LIKELY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 09/26/2009

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KDMX [260035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 260035
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
735 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 PM HEAVY RAIN NE GARNER 43.10N 93.60W
09/25/2009 M3.50 INCH HANCOCK IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TWENTY FOUR HOUR TOTAL ENDING 7 PM.


&&

$$

JH

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KILM [252225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 252225
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM LIGHTNING WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 34.21N 77.80W
09/25/2009 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT A SWIMMER
WAS KILLED BY EITHER A DIRECT OR VERY CLOSE LIGHTNING
STRIKE NEAR CRYSTAL PIER.


&&

$$

BACON

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KFFC [252220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 252220
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM HEAVY RAIN CEDARTOWN 34.01N 85.25W
09/25/2009 M1.70 INCH POLK GA BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC RAINFALL REPORT FROM THIS AFTERNOON RECEIVED VIA
FOX 5 ATLANTA.

0614 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE ROCKMART 33.96N 85.02W
09/25/2009 M1.00 INCH POLK GA BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT FROM THIS AFTERNOON. RECEIVED VIA FOX 5
ATLANTA.


&&

$$

HANDEL

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KRAH [252202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 252202
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
601 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM LIGHTNING 3 W FAYETTEVILLE 35.07N 78.96W
09/25/2009 CUMBERLAND NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** LIGHTNING STRIKE OF ADULT AND CHILD LEAVING
RETAIL STORE. BOTH TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL.


&&

$$

DJF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 252059
SWODY1
SPC AC 252056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK...

...TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SCNTRL KS...

HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLIER OUTLOOK ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS REGION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BUOYANCY WILL PLAY
AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS HAS
SHIFTED/DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AT 1630Z. THICK
LAYERED CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION...HAS IMPEDED SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. THIS IS
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BENEATH SRN LOBE OF COOLEST MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS NWRN OK...SWWD INTO
THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...THEN SPREAD INTO NWRN OK IN LINE WITH
EARLIER THINKING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HAIL IS THE GREATEST
CONCERN.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009/

...NWRN OK AND SRN KS...
RESIDENT UPPER LOW THIS MORNING LOCATED SWRN CORNER NE/CO
BORDER...WILL FINALLY RESPOND TO INCREASINGLY WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND BEGIN THE EJECTION PROCESS TODAY. VORT LOBE THAT HAS
ROTATED AROUND LOW MOVING SWD THRU ERN CO WILL HEAD EWD ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN KS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO TX PANHANDLE
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO
NWRN OK. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE UPPER
CIRCULATION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING...COUPLED WITH 35-40KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER FORECASTS KEPT SVR PROBS AT A MINIMUM DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH
OBSERVED LOW 50 DEWPOINTS AND PWAT OF ABOUT .70 IN...SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS OF FULL HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM
SCENTRAL KS INTO NWRN/NCENTRAL OK. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND AS A RESULT ADDED A LOW END SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
AREAS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE GREATEST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
WHILE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THE MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LIMITS ANY TORNADO THREAT TO A POSSIBLE
BRIEF/ISOLATED OCCURRENCE. SUNSET SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK END OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY...
HAVE TRIMMED THE LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES TO REGION OF OBSERVED
GREATEST HEATING/INSTABILITY FROM MID TN TO NRN AL. FURTHER W
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WITH
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES...AND MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPS REACH MID 80S...A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A LOW
SEVERE WIND PROB...I.E. SEE TEXT.

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KHUN [252057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 252057
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
357 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD COURTLAND 34.67N 87.31W
09/25/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN THE CITY OF COURTLAND


&&

$$

DL

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KAMA [252049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252049
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HAIL 2 S CANADIAN 35.88N 100.38W
09/25/2009 E0.88 INCH HEMPHILL TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900243

$$

SMB

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KICT [252048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 252048
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0346 PM TSTM WND GST ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
09/25/2009 E50 MPH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

DUNTEN

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KICT [252038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 252038
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM TSTM WND GST DERBY 37.55N 97.26W
09/25/2009 E60 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO ROOF AT 63RD AND ROCK
ROAD.


&&

$$

DUNTEN

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KAMA [251956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251956
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL 10 NNE MIAMI 35.83N 100.57W
09/25/2009 M1.25 INCH ROBERTS TX STORM CHASER

0203 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NNE MIAMI 35.83N 100.57W
09/25/2009 E68 MPH ROBERTS TX STORM CHASER


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900241
EVENT NUMBER AMA0900242

$$

SMB

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KAMA [251938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251938
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 PM HAIL 2 S CANADIAN 35.88N 100.38W
09/25/2009 E0.88 INCH HEMPHILL TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900240

$$

SMB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251937
SWODY1
SPC AC 251934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK...

...TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SCNTRL KS...

HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLIER OUTLOOK ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS REGION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BUOYANCY WILL PLAY
AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS HAS
SHIFTED/DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AT 1630Z. THICK
LAYERED CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION...HAS IMPEDED SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. THIS IS
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BENEATH SRN LOBE OF COOLEST MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS NWRN OK...SWWD INTO
THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...THEN SPREAD INTO NWRN OK IN LINE WITH
EARLIER THINKING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HAIL IS THE GREATEST
CONCERN.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009/

...NWRN OK AND SRN KS...
RESIDENT UPPER LOW THIS MORNING LOCATED SWRN CORNER NE/CO
BORDER...WILL FINALLY RESPOND TO INCREASINGLY WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND BEGIN THE EJECTION PROCESS TODAY. VORT LOBE THAT HAS
ROTATED AROUND LOW MOVING SWD THRU ERN CO WILL HEAD EWD ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN KS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO TX PANHANDLE
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO
NWRN OK. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE UPPER
CIRCULATION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING...COUPLED WITH 35-40KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER FORECASTS KEPT SVR PROBS AT A MINIMUM DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH
OBSERVED LOW 50 DEWPOINTS AND PWAT OF ABOUT .70 IN...SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS OF FULL HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM
SCENTRAL KS INTO NWRN/NCENTRAL OK. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND AS A RESULT ADDED A LOW END SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
AREAS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE GREATEST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
WHILE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THE MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LIMITS ANY TORNADO THREAT TO A POSSIBLE
BRIEF/ISOLATED OCCURRENCE. SUNSET SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK END OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY...
HAVE TRIMMED THE LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES TO REGION OF OBSERVED
GREATEST HEATING/INSTABILITY FROM MID TN TO NRN AL. FURTHER W
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WITH
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES...AND MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPS REACH MID 80S...A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A LOW
SEVERE WIND PROB...I.E. SEE TEXT.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030

ACUS11 KWNS 251833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251832
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS...NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL
OK...ERN PARTS OF TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251832Z - 252030Z

SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE OVER DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON AS BAND OF CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND TRANSLATES EWD
OVER AREA.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL KS VICINITY
RSL-HLC...WITH COLLOCATED SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT SWWD TO
BETWEEN DDC-PTT...AND WSWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PIVOTING SEWD FROM
SERN CO...WITH ASSOCIATED BELT OF DVPA/ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS FROM
ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ELEVATED...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS...AND
SPECKLED ECHO CHARACTER AND RELATIVELY FAST MOVING NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF TSTMS IN THIS
BAND IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME TSTMS PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND ISOLATED
STG-SVR GUSTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER HEATS
DIABATICALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
BECOME SFC-BASED. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MRGL...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MIXING INTO MID-UPPER 40S F AHEAD OF PRECIP BAND. ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN AUTOMATED MESOANALYSES ARE INDICATING
SO FAR BECAUSE OF BACKGROUND RUC TENDENCY TO DRY THIS SFC
ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH AND TOO FAST. STG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
TO OFFSET SWLY SFC WINDS...IN SUPPORT OF AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR SVR. EVEN WITH MIXING NOT AS INTENSE AS
PROGGED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN LOW LEVELS WILL AID
POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 34960112 36839952 38119800 37859723 37199703 36199790
35349925 34890033 34790089 34960112

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KDVN [251820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251820
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
120 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S DEWITT 41.76N 90.55W
09/25/2009 M0.91 INCH CLINTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE 7 AM.


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251651
SWODY2
SPC AC 251649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION...

UPPER LOW THAT HAS MEANDERED ABOUT THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BE KICKED EWD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SPEED MAX ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. IN FACT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
UP ACROSS ERN KS/MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN QUICKLY EJECT INTO ERN
OH/WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS A POCKET OF
FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 ON THE ORDER OF MINUS
16-18C...WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF MO/IL BY MID DAY...THEN INTO IND BY
MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS
REGION IT APPEARS FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
GENERATING HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18-00Z
TIME FRAME NORTH OF MID LEVEL JET CORE.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...

AS CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW IS SHUNTED EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY...WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION LATE.
SUBSEQUENT LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW/WAVE ALONG
WRN FRINGE OF RETREATING ANTICYCLONE. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SFC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NC COAST...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD EXTEND CONSIDERABLY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VA INTO
PA. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP AND
UNLESS BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES INLAND BUT WILL KEEP 5%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/VA COAST.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251610
SWODY1
SPC AC 251607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN KS AND NWRN
OK...

...NWRN OK AND SRN KS...
RESIDENT UPPER LOW THIS MORNING LOCATED SWRN CORNER NE/CO
BORDER...WILL FINALLY RESPOND TO INCREASINGLY WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND BEGIN THE EJECTION PROCESS TODAY. VORT LOBE THAT HAS
ROTATED AROUND LOW MOVING SWD THRU ERN CO WILL HEAD EWD ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN KS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO TX PANHANDLE
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO
NWRN OK. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE UPPER
CIRCULATION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING...COUPLED WITH 35-40KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER FORECASTS KEPT SVR PROBS AT A MINIMUM DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH
OBSERVED LOW 50 DEWPOINTS AND PWAT OF ABOUT .70 IN...SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS OF FULL HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM
SCENTRAL KS INTO NWRN/NCENTRAL OK. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND AS A RESULT ADDED A LOW END SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
AREAS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE GREATEST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
WHILE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THE MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LIMITS ANY TORNADO THREAT TO A POSSIBLE
BRIEF/ISOLATED OCCURRENCE. SUNSET SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK END OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY...
HAVE TRIMMED THE LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES TO REGION OF OBSERVED
GREATEST HEATING/INSTABILITY FROM MID TN TO NRN AL. FURTHER W
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WITH
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES...AND MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPS REACH MID 80S...A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY. WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A LOW
SEVERE WIND PROB...I.E. SEE TEXT.

..HALES/GARNER.. 09/25/2009

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KDVN [251504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251504
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1001 AM HEAVY RAIN LOWDEN 41.86N 90.92W
09/25/2009 M1.34 INCH CEDAR IA CO-OP OBSERVER

MOST OF THAT FELL AFTER 7 AM THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

MIKEM

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KDVN [251416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251416
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
915 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW BELLE PLAINE 41.89N 92.28W
09/25/2009 M1.80 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [251358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251358
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
858 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N BRIGHTON 41.22N 91.82W
09/25/2009 M1.38 INCH WASHINGTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

MIKEM

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KDVN [251350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251350
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
850 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW VAN HORNE 41.97N 92.15W
09/25/2009 M1.54 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MIKEM

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KDVN [251342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251342
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
842 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE FORT MADISON 40.63N 91.33W
09/25/2009 M1.90 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [251327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251327
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
827 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E CANTRIL 40.64N 91.98W
09/25/2009 M1.60 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251229
SWODY1
SPC AC 251227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NEB/KS/CO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT CAPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOW. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF SPIN UP.

...MS/TN VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 09/25/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250905
SWODY3
SPC AC 250903

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED WORDING IN SYNOPSIS /CHANGE A 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY/

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE...NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY
...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS
RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A RIBBON OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL BUT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PERHAPS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS PROBABLE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE MAY LAG THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS
NEAR/BELOW 850 MB ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS IT OVERSPREADS LOWER MICHIGAN.

..KERR.. 09/25/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250900
SWOD48
SPC AC 250859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THE FORECAST UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL TEND TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST OR
CANADIAN MARITIMES NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE PROMINENT BLOCKING RIDGE
FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY. HOW THIS AFFECTS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IS
STILL UNCLEAR. THE LATEST ECMWF NOW APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.

..KERR.. 09/25/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250748
SWODY3
SPC AC 250746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE...NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY
...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS
RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A RIBBON OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL BUT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PERHAPS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS PROBABLE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE MAY LAG THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS
NEAR/BELOW 850 MB ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS IT OVERSPREADS LOWER MICHIGAN.

..KERR.. 09/25/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250732
SWODY3
SPC AC 250729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE...NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY
...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS
RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A RIBBON OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL BUT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PERHAPS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS PROBABLE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE MAY LAG THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS
NEAR/BELOW 850 MB ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS IT OVERSPREADS LOWER MICHIGAN.

..KERR.. 09/25/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250552
SWODY2
SPC AC 250552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING POLAR JET STREAK...NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS STREAM...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND
AMPLIFY TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY
...BEFORE DIGGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES...WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW NOW STILL CUT-OFF THE FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATTER
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WAKE OF A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. BUT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT TO THE
LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

...CNTRL GULF STATES NORTHWARD THRU OHIO VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH A 50-70 KT CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK. AN EXCEPTION MAY
EXIST WITHIN THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
WITHIN GENERALLY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE MOSTLY BASED WITHIN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO/THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER FORCING...WILL PROBABLY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG...
WARM MOIST PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WIND OR HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL
HAZARD IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2+ INCHES.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL PROFILES NEAR A SIGNIFICANT
REMNANT CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL COLD CORE SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF MISSOURI COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY. AS THIS OVERSPREADS A BOUNDARY LAYER WARMED
BENEATH A PRECEDING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF THIS
OCCURS /AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES/ THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING INCREASINGLY SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA. DUE TO ANTICIPATED
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 09/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250546
SWODY1
SPC AC 250543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT ENEWD TOWARD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG IMPULSE MOVING INTO
SWRN CANADA. VORT MAX NOW LOCATED OVER NEB WILL ROTATE AROUND WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW INTO ERN CO BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO WRN KS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS.

...KS THROUGH NWRN OK...

SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM THURSDAY EVENING INDICATE THE RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO SRN TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SERN STATES. OWING TO THE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW...RESPONSE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. SUFFICIENT DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERISTIC
OF THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DIABATIC HEATING AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH -15C TO -18C AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES...BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500
J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS. MID LEVEL JET
ATTENDING THE VORT MAX MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT /30-40 KT/ BULK
SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ROTATION...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY COULD POSE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT...AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY...


WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP FRIDAY WITHIN THE MOIST BUT WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR OVER
THE SERN STATES. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL TEND
TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INTERCEPT
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST SECTOR. MODELS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSE
ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT BULK SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH 700
MB...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL PROBABLY SERVE
AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 09/25/2009

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KMRX [250411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 250411
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1211 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM FLASH FLOOD BRISTOL VA 36.61N 82.17W
09/24/2009 CITY OF BRISTOL VA TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING ON LEE HIGHWAY IN BRISTOL.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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