Saturday, September 20, 2008

KAPX [210047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 210047
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
847 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 PM HAIL 3 N ALGER 44.16N 84.12W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210038
SWODY1
SPC AC 210035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN UT/SW WY/SE ID...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS OUT
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
HEATING IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SALT LAKE CITY 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH
40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS. THIS ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
8.0 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -14C RANGE SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EARLY THIS
EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 09/21/2008

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KPIH [210023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 210023
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
622 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW TETONIA 43.78N 111.27W
09/20/2008 E0.40 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

.40 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM


&&

$$

TWYATT

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KGRR [202345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 202345
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 5 ENE HARRISON 44.05N 84.71W
09/20/2008 E0.25 INCH CLARE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KAPX [202159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202159
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
559 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM HAIL 2 S AU SABLE 44.38N 83.33W
09/20/2008 M0.25 INCH IOSCO MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [202157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202157
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
557 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM HAIL 4 SSE SPRUCE 44.78N 83.42W
09/20/2008 M0.25 INCH ALCONA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JZ

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KDVN [202141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 202141
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
441 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL 1 SW STRONGHURST 40.74N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL.

0327 PM HAIL WSW STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL.

0329 PM HAIL 1 WSW STRONGHURST 40.74N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF DIME SIZE HAIL.

0332 PM HEAVY RAIN STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.90W
09/20/2008 M1.00 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

C0C0RAHS OBSERVER REPORTS RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.

0335 PM HAIL STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.90W
09/20/2008 M0.88 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST REPORTED MEASURED AT 68 MPH. SMALL TREE DOWN IN
YARD.


&&

$$

WE

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KIND [202116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 202116
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
516 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N CARPENTERSVILLE 39.83N 86.80W
09/20/2008 M67 MPH PUTNAM IN PUBLIC

A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN OVER.


&&

$$

JH

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KIND [202046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 202046
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
446 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL 5 E INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.05W
09/20/2008 U0.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL REPORTED AT 38TH STREET AND SHADELAND.


&&

$$

JNIELD

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KIND [202047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 202047
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
447 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM HAIL 3 ESE BAINBRIDGE 39.74N 86.76W
09/20/2008 U0.25 INCH PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL REPORTED IN THE HERITAGE LAKE AREA.


&&

$$

JNIELD

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KDVN [202044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 202044
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.90W
09/20/2008 M0.88 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST REPORTED MEASURED AT 68 MPH. SMALL TREE DOWN IN
YARD.


&&

$$

WE

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KAPX [202042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 202042
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
442 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 3 E HUBBARD LAKE 44.81N 83.53W
09/20/2008 M0.25 INCH ALCONA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JZ

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KDVN [202037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 202037
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0332 PM HEAVY RAIN STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.90W
09/20/2008 M1.00 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

C0C0RAHS OBSERVER REPORTS RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

WE

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KDVN [202032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 202032
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM HAIL 1 WSW STRONGHURST 40.74N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF DIME SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

WE

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KDVN [202029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 202029
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM HAIL WSW STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

WE

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KDVN [202028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 202028
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL 1 SW STRONGHURST 40.74N 90.91W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

WE

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KPIH [202010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 202010
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
210 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL 3 WSW PORTNEUF 42.78N 112.41W
09/20/2008 M0.75 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0209 PM HAIL 3 ENE POCATELLO 42.89N 112.41W
09/20/2008 E0.75 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PANGEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 202003
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UT/SOUTHERN ID AND WESTERN WY/SOUTHWEST MT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER ORE AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER JET STREAK RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AMPLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
SPITE OF LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING BENEATH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...A WARM/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MN/WI AND FAR NORTHERN IA. IN SPITE OF A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A CONDITIONAL HAIL RISK...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
WITH A SLOW MOVING/WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN MO...A FEW
STRONG TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WELL REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CORRIDOR
WILL KEEP ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT REMOTE.

..GUYER.. 09/20/2008

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KJAN [201950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201950
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM HAIL SANDY HOOK 31.04N 89.80W
09/20/2008 E0.88 INCH MARION MS TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY GUSTY WINDS WERE ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.


&&

$$

HAMRICK

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KKEY [201843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 201843
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
243 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM WATER SPOUT 15 NW KEY WEST 24.71N 81.92W
09/20/2008 GMZ075 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
THREE SHORT LIVED WATERSPOUTS NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. IT
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOUD LINE.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KLIX [201808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 201808
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
108 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLOOD MCCOMB 31.25N 90.47W
09/20/2008 PIKE MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

PIKE CD REPORTED ABOUT 5 TO 10 FLOODED CARS IN PARKING
LOT ALONG HIGHWAY 98 AND FLOODING OF AN APARTMENT COMPLEX
ALONG HIGHWAY 98 DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1230 PM
AND 130 PM CDT.


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A RESIDUAL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS EASTWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...LATEST 12Z-BASED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
WY/MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEB OWING TO AMPLE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/TSTMS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST DETAILS. BUT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST IN VICINITY OF A LEE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND NORTHEAST CO/FAR NORTHWEST KS.
PROVIDED SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING...STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES TO AS HIGH AS
1000-1250 J/KG. INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT/AMPLE VEERING WOULD
SUPPORT BOTH WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH SEVERE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK OVERALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD-SPREAD OF TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
BY MID/LATE EVENING.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN COMMON IN A GENERAL NORTH-SOUTH
CORRIDOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION ON SUNDAY...AIDED BY A RESIDUAL COOL POCKET
ALOFT AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LIMITED/ISOLATED IN NATURE.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN VICINITY OF A SOUTH-SAGGING
COLD FRONT.

..GUYER.. 09/20/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201620
SWODY1
SPC AC 201616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ALL THREE WILL POSE RISKS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
FEATURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF ORE/ID/UT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POCKET OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS
REGION SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK OF
SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A FAST-MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN/WI INTO LOWER MI. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500
J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
23-02Z. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/20/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201253
SWODY1
SPC AC 201251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES AREA TODAY...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM NRN
NV/ERN ORE/SW ID TO NW CO/WY AND MT BY EARLY SUNDAY. ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTENING FOR AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM NE UT INTO WRN WY/ERN ID AND SW MT WHERE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED...INVERTED-V STRUCTURES IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.

...MS VALLEY TODAY...
WIDELY-SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING FROM MO/IL SWD TO MS/LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD/WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
WAVES. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR DAYTIME
HEATING...REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
OVER THE MS VALLEY...THUS LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS WI/MI IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
WRN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
REMAIN LARGELY IN CANADA...LEAVING ONLY SHALLOW/WEAK ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT IN WI/MI. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
STILL...SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE/MODERATE
INSTABILITY WOULD APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL THREAT...THOUGH
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL LIMIT ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 09/20/2008

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KJAX [201227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 201227
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
827 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM TSTM WND GST 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
09/20/2008 M40 MPH AMZ472 XX BUOY

BUOY 41012 MEASURED WIND GUST TO 35 KNOTS.


&&

$$

ECZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200838
SWOD48
SPC AC 200837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE NRN STREAM WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SWD ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NRN U.S. NEXT WEEK...WHILE UPPER
RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. ONE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY GENERATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ALONG WRN FRINGES OF DOMINANT SFC
RIDGE WHERE LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE WEAK. DESPITE THE STRONG
FORCING...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN LATER PERIODS...TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL PROVE DIFFICULT BEYOND THE DAY4
PERIOD AS WLYS INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

..DARROW.. 09/20/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200715
SWODY3
SPC AC 200712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NEB INTO SRN
ND...

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THIS
REGION BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING OF MID LEVEL WIND SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER IN THE GFS...AND MORE FOCUSED THAN LEAD SHORTWAVE DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS ATOP DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
READILY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP ROTATION
AND GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR. WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND LINEAR FORCING COULD
FORCE A SQUALL LINE AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO SD/NEB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..DARROW.. 09/20/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200517
SWODY2
SPC AC 200516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN LATE DAY1 BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
DOWNSTREAM RIDING THAT WILL BE STUBBORNLY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. EVEN SO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SLY LLJ RESPONDS AND INCREASES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER MODEST...SFC DEW POINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES FOR
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC-BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK REGION...THUS INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE
VEERING PROFILES WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN RETREATING WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO THE U.P. OF MI. CONVECTION
SHOULD FOCUS INTO SRN CANADA AS WARM FRONT RETREATS INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY FROM MO/IL...SWD TO LA. OTHER
ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE FL
PENINSULA...HOWEVER DEEP E-NELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION.

..DARROW.. 09/20/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200514
SWODY1
SPC AC 200511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH
OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WITHIN THIS STREAM IS PROGGED SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL AREAS. A SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH
AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

WITHIN A WEAKER FLOW REGIME FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A BROADLY CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED IMPULSES IS PROGGED TO
LINGER FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION.

...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH A MID/UPPER JET AXIS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
CRITERIA. AND...SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS MAY BE
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH. OTHERWISE...
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
LINGERING MOIST EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND BENEATH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH AXIS...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMA PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH MAY
FOCUS HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

..KERR/SMITH.. 09/20/2008

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