Monday, November 7, 2011

KOUN [080042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 080042
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL MARTHA 34.73N 99.39W
11/07/2011 E1.00 INCH JACKSON OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KOUN [080042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 080042
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL 7 W ALTUS 34.64N 99.46W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH JACKSON OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KICT [080019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 080019
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 5 E CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.41W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL WAS MOSTLY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE...BUT A FEW WERE UP
TO GOLFBALL SIZE. THE HAIL OCCURRED WITH 50 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [080011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 080011
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
610 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HAIL 1 E CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.48W
11/07/2011 E0.88 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CDJ

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KICT [080008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 080008
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.50W
11/07/2011 E0.88 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CDJ

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KOUN [080006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 080006
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM HAIL HYDRO 35.55N 98.58W
11/07/2011 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KAMA [080003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 080003
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
602 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
11/07/2011 E0.88 INCH CARSON TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100470

$$

ABM

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KTFX [072359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072359
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
459 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/07/2011 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET


&&

$$

BLANK

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KCYS [072358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 072358
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 19 WSW OF ENCAMPMENT. DATA FROM 7AM
MST MST TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION
8880.

0300 PM SNOW N SANDSTONE RANGER STAT 41.11N 107.17W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 17 SW ENCAMPMENT. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION 8150.

0300 PM SNOW OLD BATTLE 41.15N 106.97W
11/07/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.2. RATIO 20 TO 1. ELEVATION 10000.

0300 PM SNOW WEBBER SPRINGS 41.16N 106.93W
11/07/2011 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 5 SW ENCAMPMENT. DATA 7 AM MST TO 3
PM MST. DATA FROM 7 AM MST TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 20
TO 1. ELEVATION 9250.

0300 PM SNOW WHISKEY PARK 41.00N 106.91W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 28 E SAVORY. DATA FROM 7 AM MST TO 3
PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION 8950.

0300 PM SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
11/07/2011 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 17 ENE RIVERSIDE. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO 1. ELEVATION 8440.

0300 PM SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 12 WNW CENTENNIAL. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION 10130.

0300 PM SNOW N SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
11/07/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 30 WNW LARAMIE. DATA FROM 7 AM MST TO
3 PM MST. SWE 0.2. RATIO 20 TO 1. ELEVATION 10050.

0300 PM SNOW 2 NE BROOKLYN LAKE 41.38N 106.20W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED AT 7 NW CENTENIAL. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.2. RATIO 2 TO 1. ELEVATION 10240.

0300 PM SNOW 2 NE ROB ROY RESERVOIR 41.24N 106.23W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE AT CINNABAR PARK. SITE LOCATED 6 SW
CENTENIAL. DATA 7 AM MST TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO15 TO
1. ELEVATION 9574.

0300 PM SNOW CROW CREEK 41.23N 105.38W
11/07/2011 E1.5 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 10 SE LARAMIE. DATA FROM 7 AM MST TO
3 PM MST.SWE 0.1. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION 8330.

0300 PM SNOW WINDY PEAK 42.28N 105.58W
11/07/2011 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 12 W ESTERBROOK. DATA FROM 7 AM MST
TO 3 PM MST. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO 1. ELEVATION 7900.

0300 PM SNOW LAPRELE CREEK 42.44N 105.86W
11/07/2011 E3.0 INCH CONVERSE WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE LOCATED 28 SW DOUGLAS. DATA 7 PM MST TO 3 PM
MST. SWE 0.2. RATIO 15 TO 1. ELEVATION 8375.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KAMA [072353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072353
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL 5 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.45W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH ARMSTRONG TX NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100469

$$

LG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2294

ACUS11 KWNS 072353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072353
OKZ000-TXZ000-080100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...FAR S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072353Z - 080100Z

THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DMGG WIND GUST MAY EXIST THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW MULTIPLE DISORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING
NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS INCREASING
WITHIN THE PAST HR. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS N TX REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADO/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL...AS THIS AREA IS
ON THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. A WARM LAYER IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER MAY ALSO
BE LIMITING TSTM INTENSITY ATTM. HOWEVER...SELY SFC WINDS NEAR 15
KTS /PER 00Z SFC ANALYSIS/ ALONG WITH AN INCREASING/VEERING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTM COVERAGE IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT POSITIONED
WELL TO THE N/W ...AND AN ABSENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33919658 32659671 32109694 31989728 32049767 32819801
33619787 33909774 34109713 34069677 33919658

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2293

ACUS11 KWNS 072351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072351
OKZ000-TXZ000-080145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND WCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...

VALID 072351Z - 080145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 870 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN THE
REST OF THIS EVENING FROM SWRN TX INTO NWRN OK...THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
THREAT FOR PERSISTENT VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
N-CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY. A DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM SWRN TX NWD INTO THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG CLOUD STREETS
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN RENDERED UNSTABLE BY EARLIER
DIABATIC WARMING. TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN GREATEST
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...WHILE SOME OF THE
STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE AND AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE...ALONG WITH
A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS MODE TRANSITIONS TO
DOMINANT LINEAR STRUCTURES...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED...BUT SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LATER THIS
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36959675 35909719 34939823 34179843 33529860 33350020
33880065 35309966 36169823 36859748 36959675

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 871

WWUS20 KWNS 072338
SEL1
SPC WW 072338
KSZ000-OKZ000-080700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 870...

DISCUSSION...NRN END OF N CNTRL OK SQLN WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
EWD THROUGH LATE TNGT...WHILE STORMS MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT.
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT STRENGTHENING LOW LVL
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH DIURNAL CYCLE AND WITH APPROACH OF
NM UPR VORT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLD
TORNADOES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...CORFIDI

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KAMA [072338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072338
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 10 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.54W
11/07/2011 E2.00 INCH ARMSTRONG TX NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100468

$$

RTW

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KOUN [072332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072332
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HAIL CORN 35.38N 98.78W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH WASHITA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KOUN [072327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072327
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
527 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM HAIL 4 W BESSIE 35.38N 99.06W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH WASHITA OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ALSO REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KAMA [072313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072313
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
513 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM HAIL PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
11/07/2011 E0.88 INCH CARSON TX NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100467

$$

RTW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2292

ACUS11 KWNS 072304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072304
TXZ000-080000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072304Z - 080000Z

TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONGOING TSTMS NEAR SFC COLD FRONT SEGMENT ARCING
WNWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...LIKELY AIDED BY INCREASING FORCED
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF A SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
NELY STORM MOTION WILL CAUSE TSTMS TO MOVE INTO LOWER THETA-E
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KTS OF 3-6 KM AGL LAYER FLOW
/PER TCU AND JTN PROFILER DATA/...SOME ROTATING TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF
THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF A WW ...BUT
TRENDS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35530048 34980100 34690155 34500196 34540242 34770273
35110293 35380260 35690197 35990102 35910053 35530048

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KOUN [072300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072300
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM TSTM WND GST BURNS FLAT 35.36N 99.18W
11/07/2011 M92 MPH WASHITA OK ASOS

KCSM MEASURED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS.


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2291

ACUS11 KWNS 072259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072258
KSZ000-OKZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND A PORTION OF NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072258Z - 080030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR PONCA CITY OK ENEWD
THROUGH SERN KS AND CNTRL MO. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW
SWWD INTO SWRN OK. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THIS
EVENING ALLOWING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH 500 J/KG
MLCAPE TO ADVECT INTO SERN KS. A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
N-CNTRL OK NNEWD TO NEAR EMPORIA KS AND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15
KT. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SIZEABLE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT IN KAY COUNTY OF N-NCNTRL OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SERN KS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THREAT COULD BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36399676 37209672 37739636 37869562 37549488 36469576
36399676

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KAMA [072243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072243
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 1 S WELLINGTON 34.84N 100.21W
11/07/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100466

$$

RTW

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KAMA [072237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072237
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
437 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HAIL 7 E CANYON 34.98N 101.80W
11/07/2011 M1.25 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100465

$$

RTW

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KOUN [072234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072234
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM HAIL 1 W TONKAWA 36.68N 97.33W
11/07/2011 E1.00 INCH KAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KAMA [072232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072232
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM HAIL WELLINGTON 34.85N 100.21W
11/07/2011 E1.10 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100464

$$

RTW

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KAMA [072229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 072229
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM HAIL WELLINGTON 34.85N 100.21W
11/07/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100463

$$

RTW

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KICT [072220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 072220
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
420 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0321 PM FLOOD DOWNTOWN WICHITA 37.69N 97.34W
11/07/2011 SEDGWICK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCED AREAS OF STREET FLOODING
ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA. VEHICLES WERE REPORTED STUCK IN
HIGH WATER NEAR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...21ST AND
AMIDON...37TH AND TYLER...14TH AND MERIDIAN...AND IN
VALLEY CENTER. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.


&&

$$

ADK

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KOUN [072214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072214
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HAIL 10 S SAYRE 35.15N 99.63W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH BECKHAM OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KMFR [072210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 072210
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
209 PM PST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 23 NW KLAMATH FALLS 42.46N 122.09W
11/06/2011 M9.0 INCH KLAMATH OR PUBLIC

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION


&&

$$

BPN

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KOUN [072201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072201
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 1 N SNYDER 34.67N 98.95W
11/07/2011 E2.00 INCH KIOWA OK CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KFGZ [072148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KFGZ 072148
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
248 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0123 PM SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
11/07/2011 M4.5 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.36 WATER EQUIVALENT. ELEVATION 6800 FEET.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100269

$$

RICKEY

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KOUN [072129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072129
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND GST 10 S SNYDER 34.51N 98.95W
11/07/2011 E70 MPH TILLMAN OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KOUN [072121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072121
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL LUGERT 34.90N 99.27W
11/07/2011 E1.25 INCH KIOWA OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KFGZ [072120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 072120
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
220 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0123 PM SNOW DEPTH KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
11/07/2011 M5 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.36 WATER EQUIVALENT. ELEVATION 6800 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100269

$$

RICKEY

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KOUN [072108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072108
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM TORNADO 3 S TIPTON 34.46N 99.14W
11/07/2011 TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KCYS [072104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 072104
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
204 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/06/2011 M60 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 TO 46 MPH FROM 911 AM TO 1026 AM.


&&

$$

RUBIN

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KCYS [072049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 072049
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
149 PM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 PM HEAVY SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/07/2011 M6.5 INCH LARAMIE WY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SNOWING LIGHTLY...SNOW STOPPED ACCUMULATING.


&&

$$

LIEBL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2290

ACUS11 KWNS 072041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072041
TXZ000-072215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072041Z - 072215Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MATURE
NEAR AND N OF ABI ALONG A SUBTLE ZONE OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE. AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT DEEP LAYER
W-SWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS
FORECAST TO ENLARGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR WAVE TO THE W. THIS WILL LEAD TO
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2 S-2...WHICH MAY FAVOR A TORNADO OR
TWO.

..GARNER.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31730060 32690083 33400029 33559917 33279825 32239863
31579957 31730060

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KOUN [072034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072034
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL 10 W MANGUM 34.88N 99.68W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH GREER OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KOUN [072034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 072034
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL 1 W REED 34.90N 99.70W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH GREER OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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KOUN [071959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 071959
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
158 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL 5 W HOLLIS 34.69N 100.00W
11/07/2011 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CMARTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071951
SWODY1
SPC AC 071949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE
FORECAST WARRANTS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF
THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL KS.

..SMITH/DARROW.. 11/07/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011/

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK:

1/ EXPAND LOW TORNADO/SVR WIND PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO ERN KS.
2/ NARROW WIDTH OF SVR RISKS BY TRIMMING ON WRN/ERN FRINGES.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE UPR LOW HAS TURNED E OVER AZ/NRN MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE WCNTRL TX WITH A FRONT
ENE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS. CONSIDERABLE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD TRANSLATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NCNTRL OK AND ERN KS. A NWWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE SERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS...HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED NWWD TO THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CONCERNS FOR MITIGATED DESTABILIZATION FROM NCNTRL
OK INTO KS OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN THIS AFTN...LATE MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING MOVING INTO W TX AND SWRN OK.
HERE...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPES TO
2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. FARTHER NE...500-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED.

AS INCREASING ASCENT/ENHANCED MOISTENING/COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL
FORM NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/N EDGE OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TX PNHDL/WRN OK BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN ROLLING PLAINS OF TX IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS AND MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...250+
M2/S2...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL/SE ROLLING PLAINS INTO
SWRN/WCNTRL OK /00-03Z/.

ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND...BOTH NE AND SW INTO ERN KS AND NW/WCNTRL TX
LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING SLAB ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT A
TRANSITION CHIEFLY INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO ERN KS...CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2289

ACUS11 KWNS 071930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071930
KSZ000-OKZ000-072130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071930Z - 072130Z

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT N OF TORNADO
WATCH #870...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY -- SHOWS SOME NWD DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO N
CENTRAL OK AND FAR S CENTRAL/SERN KS...THOUGH NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE OPPOSED BY PERSISTENT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO HINDER NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME ADVANCEMENT
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW NWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH DEGREE OF POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN -- AS THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS DIRECTLY TIED TO WARM
FRONTAL PROGRESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
GREATER WITH ONGOING/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION INTO SERN KS ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS. WHILE ANTICIPATED HAIL SIZE DOES NOT
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER TIME IF
THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL BECOMES MORE APPARENT...OR IF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS OBSERVED THUS
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37859808 37979666 37809553 37049539 36409718 35939791
35949968 37109910 37859808

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 870

WWUS20 KWNS 071913
SEL0
SPC WW 071913
OKZ000-TXZ000-080300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CUMULUS STREETS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DEEPENING THIS AFTN
AS WEAK ASCENT...TIED TO A LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EJECTS
ENE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AS PLENTIFUL LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES. NATURE OF ASCENT /WEAK-MODEST/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
LARGELY NORMAL TO INITIATING BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
LINEAR AND DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. LLVL
SHEAR...WHILE SOMEWHAT MODEST AT MID-AFTN...WILL INCREASE AS PRIMARY
UPR TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION AND LLVL
INCREASE RISK FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...RACY

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KCYS [071848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 AM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1137 AM SNOW 10 NE HARRISBURG 41.65N 103.60W
11/07/2011 E2.0 INCH BANNER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ON THE GRASS AND MELTING

1140 AM SNOW 11 NE KIMBALL 41.35N 103.51W
11/07/2011 E4.0 INCH KIMBALL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

1142 AM SNOW 8 NE CARPENTER 41.11N 104.23W
11/07/2011 E0.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

TRACE AMOUNTS BUT MELTING AS IT FALLS.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KEKA [071841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 071841
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1041 AM PST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM SNOW 11 SSW CARRVILLE 40.91N 122.78W
11/06/2011 M2.0 INCH TRINITY CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOCATED IN COVINGTON MILL NORTH OF TRINITY CENTER AT 2500
FEET. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL EQUATES TO 2 INCHES. SNOWFALL
BEGAN YESTERDAY AT 3PM. NO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
OBSERVED.


&&

$$

LEWIS

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KCYS [071838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071838
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1138 AM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
11/07/2011 E1.0 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

CURRENTLY SNOWING LIGHTLY. SNOW MELTING ON THE ROADS BUT
1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE GRASS.


&&

$$

LIEBL

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KCYS [071832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071832
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1132 AM MST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/07/2011 E4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THREE HOURS


&&

$$

LIEBL

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KBIS [071831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 071831
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM SNOW BOTTINEAU 48.83N 100.44W
11/07/2011 M2.4 INCH BOTTINEAU ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

HWETZEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2288

ACUS11 KWNS 071828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071827
TXZ000-OKZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071827Z - 072000Z

PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER
THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W
TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH
PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS
WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA
OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND
BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 34129831 33209925 32840046 32950119 34000135 34870085
35989941 35849831 34129831

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KOUN [071808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 071808
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD DAVIS 34.50N 97.12W
11/07/2011 MURRAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

CULVERT WASHED OUT ON HANOVER ST BETWEEN CHERRY RD AND
HWY 7


&&

$$

JPIKE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071723
SWODY2
SPC AC 071721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
ARKLATEX...

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW OVER NRN OK WILL MIGRATE NEWD TO NEAR SRN
LAKE MICH ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS
STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY FETCH OF INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE WRN GULF AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS /SOME SEVERE/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD.

...OZARKS SWD INTO ERN TX...
A BAND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS OK/KS DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS BEFORE
REINVIGORATING BY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION/COLD FRONT. HERE...UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 50 KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SQUALL
LINE WILL FAVOR PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WITH SWD EXTENT...NAMELY ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER SABINE RIVER
VALLEY AS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION INTO THE MIDWEST. DESPITE DECREASING BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT AND MODEST LAPSE RATES...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SEEMINGLY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD SEVERE INTO ERN TX.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS DUE TO A STRONG WARM CONVEYOR ON THE NOSE OF
A 50 KT LLJ AT 12Z TUE WILL WANE AND SPREAD NWD WITH A LULL IN STORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG MASS TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY BY
MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD
INTO N-CNTRL MO BY WED. EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARY
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION BUT GENERALLY SHOW A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE WITH A WIND PROFILE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW--CONTINGENT UPON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. AFTER
SUNSET...MEAGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A LLJ EXIT REGION WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN AN EWD MOVING FORCED SQUALL LINE.

..SMITH/DARROW.. 11/07/2011

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KOUN [071717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 071717
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD TURNER FALLS 34.42N 97.15W
11/07/2011 MURRAY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL FOOT BRIDGES DAMAGED IN THE PARK. SEVERAL
BUILDINGS FLOODED IN THE PARK. SEVERAL PEOPLE STRANDED
ACROSS A CREEK IN THE PARK.

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD SULPHUR 34.51N 96.98W
11/07/2011 MURRAY OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SOME STREETS IN TOWN WERE CLOSED, BUT WERE REOPENED BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

$$

JPIKE

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KSTO [071711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 071711
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM DENSE FOG MATHER AFB 38.55N 121.28W
11/07/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

MATHER AIR FORCE BASE REPORTING 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

0655 AM DENSE FOG BEALE AFB 39.11N 121.36W
11/07/2011 YUBA CA ASOS

BEALE AIR FORCE BASE REPORTING 1/8 MILE VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

0701 AM DENSE FOG SACRAMENTO 38.57N 121.47W
11/07/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 1/2 MILE
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.

0715 AM DENSE FOG LINCOLN 38.90N 121.32W
11/07/2011 PLACER CA ASOS

REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

SLH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071624
SWODY1
SPC AC 071623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK:

1/ EXPAND LOW TORNADO/SVR WIND PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO ERN KS.
2/ NARROW WIDTH OF SVR RISKS BY TRIMMING ON WRN/ERN FRINGES.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE UPR LOW HAS TURNED E OVER AZ/NRN MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE WCNTRL TX WITH A FRONT
ENE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS. CONSIDERABLE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD TRANSLATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NCNTRL OK AND ERN KS. A NWWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE SERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS...HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED NWWD TO THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CONCERNS FOR MITIGATED DESTABILIZATION FROM NCNTRL
OK INTO KS OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN THIS AFTN...LATE MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING MOVING INTO W TX AND SWRN OK.
HERE...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPES TO
2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. FARTHER NE...500-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED.

AS INCREASING ASCENT/ENHANCED MOISTENING/COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL
FORM NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/N EDGE OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TX PNHDL/WRN OK BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN ROLLING PLAINS OF TX IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS AND MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...250+
M2/S2...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL/SE ROLLING PLAINS INTO
SWRN/WCNTRL OK /00-03Z/.

ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND...BOTH NE AND SW INTO ERN KS AND NW/WCNTRL TX
LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING SLAB ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT A
TRANSITION CHIEFLY INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO ERN KS...CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..RACY/GARNER.. 11/07/2011

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KOUN [071551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 071551
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD HEALDTON 34.23N 97.49W
11/06/2011 CARTER OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME STREET FLOODING IN TOWN. A FEW STREETS WERE BLOCKED
OFF.

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD RINGLING 34.18N 97.59W
11/06/2011 JEFFERSON OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME COUNTRY ROADS IMPASSABLE. PINE STREET CLOSED JUST
WEST OF TOWN. 1S OF TOWN HWY 89 NEAR LONG BRANCH CREEK
PARTIALLY UNDERWATER.


&&

$$

JPIKE

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KMQT [071550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071550
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1049 AM EST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
11/07/2011 M50 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KAPX [071419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 071419
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
919 AM EST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW WELLSTON 44.23N 85.96W
11/06/2011 MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWNED


&&

$$

JARNOTT

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KBIS [071404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 071404
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
804 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 AM SNOW WATFORD CITY 47.80N 103.28W
11/07/2011 M1.2 INCH MCKENZIE ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

$$

JTAEGER

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KBIS [071401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 071401
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
801 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 AM SNOW 3 N STANLEY 48.36N 102.39W
11/07/2011 M1.4 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

$$

JTAEGER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2287

ACUS11 KWNS 071352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071352
OKZ000-TXZ000-071515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071352Z - 071515Z

WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE JUST NOW TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENTLY LARGE CAPE TO
SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
...SOME OF WHICH COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS. BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AS ACTIVITY
REMAINS BASED ABOVE A SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AND STABLE SURFACE BASED
AIR MASS.

..KERR.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35580245 36520192 36869926 36829821 36719698 36299700
35749741 35069864 34020009 34390137 35580245

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071248
SWODY1
SPC AC 071246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TX. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND HELP TO PRODUCE THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS OK IN A
REGION OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP
TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TX AND WESTERN OK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MOST MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MAX
HEATING PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.
THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

AFTER DARK...A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND
WESTERN OK. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GROW RATHER QUICKLY INTO A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
WHILE THE INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WITH
THESE STORMS THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

..HART/COHEN.. 11/07/2011

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KOUN [071006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 071006
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 AM FLASH FLOOD SULPHUR 34.51N 96.98W
11/07/2011 MURRAY OK PUBLIC

HOMES FLOODED ALONG 10TH STREET AND ALONG 15TH STREET
NEAR MUSKOGEE AND VINITIA STREETS. FLOODING ALSO AT A
NEARBY ATHLETIC COMPLEX. REPORT RELAYED BY WFO SJT.


&&

$$

BURKE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070943
SWOD48
SPC AC 070942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE THU/D4 TO
SAT/D6 PERIOD. AN ERN TROUGH ON D4-D5 WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY
WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BY SAT/D6...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS HELPING
TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THERE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THIS SWRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D7...WITH SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL. A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SWRN
STATES INTO MON/D8 AS WELL...MAINTAINING A DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN
TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.

GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LOW PREDICTABILITY...MODELS WOULD NOT
INDICATE A NEED FOR ANY D7 OR D8 SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 11/07/2011

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KOUN [070720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 070720
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
120 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM FLOOD SULPHUR 34.51N 96.98W
11/07/2011 MURRAY OK TRAINED SPOTTER

RESIDENT REPORTED 5.25 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN WITH
MORE RAIN FALLING AT TIME OF REPORT. OVER 1 FOOT OF
STANDING WATER OBSERVED IN A BACK YARD.


&&

$$

BURKE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070646
SWODY2
SPC AC 070644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NRN OK TUE
MORNING...TREKKING NEWD INTO NERN MO BY 00Z/9TH WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN AR AND NERN TX AT THAT TIME. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL BRING LOWER 60S F DEWPOINT AS FAR N AS
THE LOW CENTER...WITH MID 60S F ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM NEAR THE LOW
CENTER OVER SERN KS/NRN OK SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO TX. WITH
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR BENEATH THE EJECTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A 40-50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LAPSE RATE PROFILES MAY BE
QUITE MOIST AND THEREFORE MAY HELP MITIGATE THE HAIL THREAT.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OR CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD AND THE LOW TRACKS INTO SWRN MO. THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WINDS...PERHAPS IN QLCS
FASHION...WILL BE OVER ERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND WRN
AR. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING AS WELL AS MOST FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FOR BOTH SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. MAIN LIMITATION TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL TORNADOES APPEARS
TO BE THE OVERALL POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY LINEAR
STRUCTURES...INCLUDING BOWS...MAY HAVE AREAS OF ROTATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS FORECAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
PROFILES DUE TO ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN.

SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 00Z...DECREASING THEREAFTER AS
THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

..JEWELL.. 11/07/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070601
SWODY1
SPC AC 070559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WHERE A THREAT FOR
HAIL LIKELY EXISTING IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX AND SW
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD LATE THIS MORNING...THE
STRONGEST SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ITS WAKE ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM WRN OK SSWWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUGGEST AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL FROM I-40 IN WRN OK SWD INTO NW TX WHERE A HATCHED THREAT FOR
HAIL IS INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S F SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO. A SMALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED FROM NEAR CLINTON OK SWD TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TX.

AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN KS SSWWD INTO
NW TX SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON IF A NEARLY CONTINUES SQUALL-LINE CAN BECOME
WELL-ORGANIZED AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LINE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND MUCH FURTHER EAST. THIS SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
EWD INTO ECNTRL OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINALIZED THREAT BY LATE
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011

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KAPX [070549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 070549
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1248 AM EST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NNW WELLSTON 44.23N 85.96W
11/06/2011 M55 MPH MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWNED


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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