Monday, November 7, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2293

ACUS11 KWNS 072351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072351
OKZ000-TXZ000-080145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND WCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...

VALID 072351Z - 080145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 870 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN THE
REST OF THIS EVENING FROM SWRN TX INTO NWRN OK...THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
THREAT FOR PERSISTENT VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
N-CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY. A DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM SWRN TX NWD INTO THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG CLOUD STREETS
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN RENDERED UNSTABLE BY EARLIER
DIABATIC WARMING. TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN GREATEST
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...WHILE SOME OF THE
STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE AND AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE...ALONG WITH
A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS MODE TRANSITIONS TO
DOMINANT LINEAR STRUCTURES...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED...BUT SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LATER THIS
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36959675 35909719 34939823 34179843 33529860 33350020
33880065 35309966 36169823 36859748 36959675

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