SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072353
OKZ000-TXZ000-080100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...FAR S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072353Z - 080100Z
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DMGG WIND GUST MAY EXIST THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW MULTIPLE DISORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING
NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS INCREASING
WITHIN THE PAST HR. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS N TX REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADO/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL...AS THIS AREA IS
ON THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. A WARM LAYER IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER MAY ALSO
BE LIMITING TSTM INTENSITY ATTM. HOWEVER...SELY SFC WINDS NEAR 15
KTS /PER 00Z SFC ANALYSIS/ ALONG WITH AN INCREASING/VEERING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTM COVERAGE IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT POSITIONED
WELL TO THE N/W ...AND AN ABSENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS.. 11/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33919658 32659671 32109694 31989728 32049767 32819801
33619787 33909774 34109713 34069677 33919658
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