KREV [180326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 180326
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
826 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE VIRGINIA CITY 39.24N 119.60W
10/17/2010 M0.50 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN DOWNTOWN DAYTON.

&&

$$

MYRICK

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KHNX [180309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 180309
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
809 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLOOD TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/17/2010 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM CAUSED STREET FLOODING.

0441 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
10/17/2010 M37.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

31 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AS OF 441 PM PDT.

0418 PM TSTM WND GST TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/17/2010 E43.00 MPH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST FROM THUNDERSTORM LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
TAFT.

0415 PM HAIL PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB 34.85N 119.17W
10/17/2010 E1.00 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

KERN COUNTY FIRE STATION IN LEBEC RELAYED A REPORT OF
1-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB.

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG 22 E MARICOPA 35.06N 119.01W
10/17/2010 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES
BLOWN DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF DAVID ROAD AND HIGHWAY 99.

&&

$$

SANGER

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KHNX [180223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 180223
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
722 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLOOD TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/17/2010 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM CAUSED STREET FLOODING.

&&

$$

SANGER

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KHNX [180105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 180105 CCA
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
535 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG 22 E MARICOPA 35.06N 119.01W
10/17/2010 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES
BLOWN DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF DAVID ROAD AND HIGHWAY 99.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180034
SWODY1
SPC AC 180033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS...AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST CONTINUES SSEWD AND
A WEAKER VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NRN AZ. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND WEAK SHEAR WILL PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...ASIDE FROM WEAKENING/ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
NM AND WRN TX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/18/2010

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KHNX [180035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 180035
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
535 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 22 E MARICOPA 35.06N 119.01W
10/17/2010 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES
BLOWN DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF DAVID ROAD AND HIGHWAY 99.

&&

$$

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KHNX [180033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 180033
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
533 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
10/17/2010 M37 MPH KERN CA ASOS

31 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AS OF 441 PM PDT.

&&

$$

BSO

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KHNX [180017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 180017
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
517 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB 34.85N 119.17W
10/17/2010 E1.00 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

KERN COUNTY FIRE STATION IN LEBEC RELAYED A REPORT OF
1-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB.

&&

$$

SANGER

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KHNX [172326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 172326
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
425 PM PDT SUN OCT 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND GST TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/17/2010 E43 MPH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST FROM THUNDERSTORM LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
TAFT.

&&

$$

BSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171947
SWODY1
SPC AC 171945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
CNTRL/SRN CA COAST WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES EXTENDING FROM
OFFSHORE INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 10/17/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010/

COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF CENTRAL CA COAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND DROPS SWD TO W OF MRY BY 12Z MON. FOR TODAY SWLY FLOW
CONTAINING CONSIDERABLE MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY THE SRN SIERRAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171723
SWODY2
SPC AC 171722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THE PRIMARY TROUGH OF INTEREST WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MID MO VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT BY 00Z WILL EXTEND FROM NERN NM EWD
TO THE KS/OK BORDER...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO THE OH VALLEY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX S PLAINS...WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING EWD PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. SLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF SERN SFC
RIDGE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S.

TO THE W...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SINK SWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST
WITH ONLY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN STATES.
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

...SRN KS/NRN OK...
ALTHOUGH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY...INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG AND JUST N OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NRN OK INTO SRN AND SERN KS FROM
00-06Z...SPREADING SWD ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN
HAIL...BUT SEVERE CRITERIA IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MET AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE.

...LAKE SUPERIOR/HURON REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY
COOL AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -12 C. GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 13 C...THIS WILL
PRODUCE RELATIVELY LARGE LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY WITH LAKE ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE GRAUPEL
OR SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ERN MI U.P. OR FAR NRN LOWER
MI.

..JEWELL.. 10/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171534
SWODY1
SPC AC 171532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF CENTRAL CA COAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND DROPS SWD TO W OF MRY BY 12Z MON. FOR TODAY SWLY FLOW
CONTAINING CONSIDERABLE MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY THE SRN SIERRAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171234
SWODY1
SPC AC 171232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE NATION
TODAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL CLOSE OFF AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE CA COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/17/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170842
SWOD48
SPC AC 170841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FOR SWRN
CONUS CUT-OFF LOW DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK TO EJECT SLOWLY ENEWD
TO EWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN MEX...SRN AZ AND NM DAYS 4-5/20TH-22ND.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN PATH OF PRIMARY VORTICITY
LOBE OCCURS...BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN OF HEIGHT
FALLS AND SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING OVER PAC COAST
STATES AND ADJACENT WATERS. BY MID DAY-6...23/00Z...MREF
MEMBERS...ECMWF AND UKMET PROG TROUGHING WIDELY VARYING
POSITIONS...TILTS...AMPLITUDES AND DEGREES OF CLOSURE BETWEEN LOWER
MO VALLEY...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF ROBUST ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM
GULF...POTENTIAL FOR AOA 30% SVR PROBABILITY AREA APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND LOW TO DRAW ONE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170642
SWODY3
SPC AC 170641

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING AREAS FROM HUDSON BAY CYCLONE SWD TO NEAR
GULF COAST...AND UPSTREAM REX PATTERN OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA
ANCHORED BY CUT-OFF CYCLONE INVOF SRN CA/NRN BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS.
MOST GUIDANCE PACKAGES...INCLUDING OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL AND
GREAT MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...FCST ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW TO TURN
EWD AND INLAND OVER NRN BAJA BY LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...AS HEIGHTS
FALL TO ITS NW IN ADVANCE OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE NERN PAC TROUGHING.
DESPITE SUCH STG NUMERICAL CONSENSUS...CONCERNS REMAIN REGARDING
PROGS OF THIS PROCESS...GIVEN
1. LARGE DISTANCE FROM CYCLONE TO APPRECIABLE PAC HEIGHT FALLS AND
2. POOR HISTORY OF PROGS VALID AT OR BEYOND DAY-3 FOR TIMING OF
EJECTING CUT-OFF/BAJA LOWS.

MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL ACROSS MUCH OF OH VALLEY AND
SE AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY REGIONS...WHILE
DECELERATING AND PERHAPS BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY AMIDST WEAK SFC
FLOW OVER N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX.

...CENTRAL TX TO MS/AL...
ANTECEDENT RIDGING OVER GULF COAST REGION WILL LEAD TO
WEAK...PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW REGIME THIS
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY IN 50S F...WITH
ISOLATED LOW 60S. EVEN WITH RATHER MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...NEAR FRONT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS
IN MIDLEVELS AND AT SFC ALSO WILL LIMIT SHEAR THROUGH THAT
LAYER...DESPITE STG VEERING WITH HEIGHT. BY CONTRAST...STRONG
VENTING FLOW NEAR ANVIL LEVEL -- I.E. 80-90 KT 250 MB SUBTROPICAL
JET CORE PROGGED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TX AND LA AT
20/00Z...INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ATTM
SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO ASSIGN
PROBABILITIES.

...SWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST AGAIN DAY-3 FROM SRN CA TO CENTRAL/SRN
NV AND PORTIONS NM. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WEAKNESSES IN SHEAR
AND/OR LOW-LEVEL THETAE UNSUITABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR. SMALL BELT OF
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN
AZ NEAR TIME OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...IN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MRGL
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FOR TSTMS. SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN
TO ASSIGN UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES...GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT
EJECTION OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE AND MRGL NATURE OF EXPECTED BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170553
SWODY1
SPC AC 170551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG-WAVE TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME WWD EXPANSION EXPECTED AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED/REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MIDWEST REGION...WHILE LINGERING W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE FARTHER W...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
TOWARD THE W COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER
WLYS FARTHER N...AND THEN DRIFT SSWWD ALONG THE CA COAST AS A CLOSED
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING
ALOFT ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE
EXPECTED -- PERHAPS AS FAR NEWD AS WY/WRN CO.

LASTLY...A SMALL/WEAKENING FEATURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR W TX MAY
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/17/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170549
SWODY2
SPC AC 170548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD FCST TO FEATURE TROUGHING OVER UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS...AND CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF CENTRAL/SRN
CA COAST. LATTER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD NRN
BAJA THIS PERIOD...REFLECTING STG CONSENSUS NOW PRESENT AMONG
OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND SREF MEMBERSHIP.

MEANWHILE...SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES IS FCST TO TRAVERSE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGIONS. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS...OZARKS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. SFC FRONT...FCST TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...MO AND KY DAY-1...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS W TX...OK AND OZARKS DAY-2 AS COLD
FRONT.

...WRN CONUS...
BROAD REGIME OF DIFLUENT FLOW AND AREAS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE FCST
DOWNSTREAM FROM PAC LOW...BENEATH AND N OF EXIT REGION OF 250 MB JET
THAT WILL REMAIN LARGELY S OF MEX BORDER. RELATED/WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING TO
YIELD BROAD SWATH OF STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WHERE JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CINH WILL BE ERODED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS...DIMINISHING PRECIPITOUSLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER DARK.
BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT...THOUGH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS OVER PORTIONS SRN GREAT
BASIN/NRN AZ REGION COULD SUPPORT STG GUSTS FROM SOME CELLS.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
RIDGING IS FCST TO LINGER ACROSS GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC FLOW AND PRECLUDING ROBUST RETURN
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PARTIALLY MODIFIED
RETURN-FLOW AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 50S F...MAY
REACH RED RIVER REGION AND SWD-MOVING SFC FRONT BY END OF PERIOD.
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION INVOF SFC FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT IN QUESTION BECAUSE OF CAPPING. DURING LATTER HALF
OF PERIOD...PW PLUME WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO ELEVATED WAA/MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME OVER AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND ISENTROPICALLY
HOISTED TO LFC IN SOME PORTIONS OF TSTM OUTLOOK AREA. MUCAPE VALUES
IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY DEVELOP WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SWD TO SEWD
THROUGH 19/12Z. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO
ASSIGN PROBABILITIES ATTM...GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN FCST
SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2010

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