SWOD48
SPC AC 170841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FOR SWRN
CONUS CUT-OFF LOW DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK TO EJECT SLOWLY ENEWD
TO EWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN MEX...SRN AZ AND NM DAYS 4-5/20TH-22ND.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN PATH OF PRIMARY VORTICITY
LOBE OCCURS...BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN OF HEIGHT
FALLS AND SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING OVER PAC COAST
STATES AND ADJACENT WATERS. BY MID DAY-6...23/00Z...MREF
MEMBERS...ECMWF AND UKMET PROG TROUGHING WIDELY VARYING
POSITIONS...TILTS...AMPLITUDES AND DEGREES OF CLOSURE BETWEEN LOWER
MO VALLEY...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF ROBUST ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM
GULF...POTENTIAL FOR AOA 30% SVR PROBABILITY AREA APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND LOW TO DRAW ONE ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2010
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