Sunday, October 19, 2008

KAPX [200049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 200049
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
849 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 PM HAIL WELLSTON 44.22N 85.95W
10/19/2008 M0.50 INCH MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL LASTED LESS THAN ONE MINUTE.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [192322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 192322
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
722 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 5 NE LELAND 45.07N 85.69W
10/19/2008 M0.25 INCH LEELANAU MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [192320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 192320
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
720 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM HAIL 2 NE BEULAH 44.65N 86.07W
10/19/2008 M0.25 INCH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM HAIL 5 N LELAND 45.09N 85.77W
10/19/2008 M0.25 INCH LMZ344 MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KKEY [192157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 192157
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
557 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM WATER SPOUT 3 N KEY WEST 24.60N 81.76W
10/19/2008 GMZ032 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

A WATERSPOUT WAS OBSERVED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEE APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST. THE
WATERSPOUT FORMED WITHIN A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE AND
EXTENDED HALFWAY TO THE HORIZON. TREES OBSTRUCTED THE
VIEW OF THE OCEAN SURFACE MASKING ANY VISIBLE SPRAY RING.
THE WATERSPOUT DRIFTED WESTWARD AND DISSIPATED AT 458 PM.
DURATION 8 MINUTES.


&&

$$

PFUENTES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191915
SWODY1
SPC AC 191912

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
REACHING FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES.
WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH ASCENT/MID LEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE
WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDING ORGANIZED STORMS...STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 700 MB WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 10/19/2008

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KMQT [191857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 191857
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM HAIL 2 ESE CARLSHEND 46.30N 87.18W
10/19/2008 E0.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SIZE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH. LASTED FOR 1 TO 2
MINUTES.

0250 PM HAIL FELCH 46.00N 87.83W
10/19/2008 M0.25 INCH DICKINSON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

AJ

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KGRB [191811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 191811
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL 5 SW FLORENCE 45.88N 88.32W
10/19/2008 M0.50 INCH FLORENCE WI PUBLIC


&&

$$

SCOTTC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191730
SWODY2
SPC AC 191728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVELY ZONAL
THROUGH THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. THE NRN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS A CANADIAN TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND A PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO
THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CA DURING DAY 1 WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION MOVES SLOWLY SWD AND STALLS ACROSS SRN OK. FROM
OK...THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NM AND BACK
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM/CENTRAL CO. TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NERN NM
COMBINED WITH THE LEADING EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD ATOP LATE DAY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WOULD LIMIT SHEAR STRENGTH...BUT STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHEN COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST EWD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM TO SWRN KS WHERE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WAA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSTMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR AND MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 700 MB SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...WRN WA/NWRN ORE...
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD BE
NEAR THE WA/ORE COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING
QUICKLY INLAND AND REACHING ERN WA TO W/SW ORE BY 21/00Z. STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THIS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC
TROUGH SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS FAR
WRN WA/NWRN ORE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES...
MODELS INDICATE HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
APPROACH OF PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. HOWEVER...
EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MAINTAINING GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 10/19/2008

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KCHS [191706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 191706
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/19/2008 CHARLESTON SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

PEAK TIDE REACHED 7.13 FEET MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHEN TIDES REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191614
SWODY1
SPC AC 191611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGELY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
PROVE HOSTILE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM NRN IA TO NRN LOWER MI
AS A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE A
LOWER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THIS REGION.

..GRAMS.. 10/19/2008

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KMHX [191531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 191531
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1131 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM HIGH SURF RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
10/19/2008 DARE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

DARE COUNTY 911 REPORTED A HOUSE ON SEAHAVEN DRIVE SOUTH
OF MIRLO BEACH HAS COLLAPSED INTO THE OCEAN. THE HOUSE
WAS UNOCCUPIED.


&&

$$

AUSTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MULTI-STREAM AND LARGELY ZONAL UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE E CST DEPARTS INTO
THE ATLC BASIN. PENETRATION OF A DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL RENDER MOST
OF THE CONUS TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SRN BRANCH WILL PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GRT BASIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA THIS AFTN...BUT
THE PROBABILITY WILL FALL WELL BELOW THE 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR
GENERAL TSTMS.

..RACY.. 10/19/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190853
SWOD48
SPC AC 190853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS SIMILAR WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFERENCES INCREASE BEYOND
DAY 6.

IN GENERAL...A LARGE/SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/SLOW-MOVING SURFACE SYSTEM.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS ADVECTING
SOME GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH THE EXISTING WARM SECTOR. WEAK LAPSE
RATES SHOULD...HOWEVER...ACT TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM. THUS...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190721
SWODY3
SPC AC 190719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS AN
UPPER LOW DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND TROUGH -- INITIALLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES --
EXPANDS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALSO AMPLIFY ALONG THE W COAST AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING NERN PACIFIC TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
-- AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS MAY
OCCUR INVOF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THIS FRONT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS/DEEPENS INTO
THE PLAINS.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN KS/NRN OK...
MODELS FORECAST -- TO VARYING DEGREES -- CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN A BIT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING..AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE DEEPENING/LARGER-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.

MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...BUT ALL
AGREE THAT A WEAK CYCLONE SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE WITHIN AN ENVELOPE
FROM ERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE --
EFFECTIVELY BECOMING A WEAK WARM FRONT -- LYING NNW-SSE ACROSS THE
NRN OK VICINITY.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/ WITHIN THE WEAK/DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT
-- GIVEN DEGREE OF UVV ANTICIPATED -- TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE -- LIKELY NO MORE THAN 30 TO 40
KT. HOWEVER...WITH SLYS/SSELYS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER VEERING TO WLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
STORMS IS FORECAST. ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT...LOW LCLS...AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SEEMS TO SUPPORT
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY...BUT AREA COULD REQUIRE A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE IN LATER
FORECASTS.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190546
SWODY2
SPC AC 190544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS AFFECTING THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

...THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST.
A LOW-PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION APPEARS TO EXIST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ATOP LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASCENDING ISENTROPICALLY ATOP
THE SURFACE FRONT SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED...AND THAT
POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER --
FAVORABLY-VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190520
SWODY1
SPC AC 190517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE HOSTILE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WHERE CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEB. SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG NERN EDGE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATE PLUME BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER A FAIRLY STOUT CAP
AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS VERY LOW.

..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 10/19/2008

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