Sunday, October 19, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191915
SWODY1
SPC AC 191912

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
REACHING FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES.
WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH ASCENT/MID LEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE
WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDING ORGANIZED STORMS...STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 700 MB WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS NRN LOWER MI WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 10/19/2008

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