Wednesday, September 19, 2007

KJAX [200345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 200345
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1145 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1138 PM FLOOD 2 W PALM COAST 29.57N 81.25W
09/19/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MODERATE FLOODING THROUGHOUT
PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. BELLE TERRE PKWY FROM WHITE
VIEW PKWY NORTH TO PALM COAST PKWY HAS UP TO 12 INCHES OF
WATER OVER THE ROAD. IN PALM COAST THERE ARE
APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 6 HOUSES WITH WATER UP TO THE
DOORWAY...AND SAND BAGS ARE BEING PROVIDED. PARKVIEW
DRIVE SOUTH AND SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS ARE CLOSED.

REPORTS AT 9 AM INDICATED UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
THE PALM COAST AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 12 INCHES.


&&

$$

MH

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KAMA [200335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 200335
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 19 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.63W
09/19/2007 MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER IN MOORE COUNTY CONFIRMED PREVIOUS
REPORT OF POWER LINES DOWN. HE INDICATED THAT 6
TELEPHONE POLES WERE SNAPPED...ALL POINTING TO THE NE.
THIS WAS JUST WEST OF FARM ROAD 1060 ON HWY 152 IN MOORE
COUNTY.


0646 PM HAIL 11 SW GRUVER 36.14N 101.55W
09/19/2007 E1.00 INCH HANSFORD TX PUBLIC

ALONG FM 520


0649 PM TSTM WND GST GRUVER 36.26N 101.41W
09/19/2007 M69 MPH HANSFORD TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

KJS

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KDDC [200229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 200229
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
929 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL 2 E CHARLESTON 37.87N 100.53W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH GRAY KS PUBLIC

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S AMY 38.39N 100.60W
09/19/2007 E65.00 MPH LANE KS PUBLIC

0320 PM HAIL 3 S AMY 38.42N 100.61W
09/19/2007 E0.88 INCH LANE KS PUBLIC

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S AMY 38.42N 100.61W
09/19/2007 E60.00 MPH LANE KS PUBLIC

0322 PM HAIL SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

0402 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ESE GARDEN CITY 37.93N 100.73W
09/19/2007 M59.00 MPH FINNEY KS ASOS

0520 PM HAIL 6 SSE MEADE 37.21N 100.28W
09/19/2007 E0.88 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

RBURGERT

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KJAX [200200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 200200
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLOOD BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
09/19/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING ON U.S. 1 IN NORTH END OF BUNNELL.


&&

$$

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KOAX [200148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 200148
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
848 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTSMOUTH 41.65N 95.52W
09/18/2007 SHELBY IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

PART OF A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE.


&&
DELAYED REPORT
$$

CHERMOK

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KJAX [200141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 200141
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.86N 81.26W
09/19/2007 M48.00 MPH ST. JOHNS FL C-MAN STATION

THE ST AUGUSTINE CMAN STATION MEASURED PEAK WIND GUST OF
48 MPH AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH.


&&

$$

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 672

WWUS20 KWNS 200117
SEL2
SPC WW 200117
COZ000-KSZ000-200200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
817 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 672 ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

COLORADO
KANSAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1983

ACUS11 KWNS 200116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200116
SDZ000-NDZ000-200245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...SRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200116Z - 200245Z

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
MOVING INTO SRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD IS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED
BY THE RUC OVER SW TO CNTRL SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN
NATURE. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO 15C/ AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.BROYLES.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

44739860 45069990 45620088 46130104 46600077 46850028
46939974 46899912 46679821 46309754 45869707 45349706
44889734 44719802

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KJAX [200104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 200104
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLOOD PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
09/19/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PARKVIEW DRIVE IS CLOSED IN PALM COAST DUE TO HEAVY
RAINALL. NO STRUCTURES HAVE ANY FLOODING AT THIS TIME.


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200100
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS....

..PLAINS...
A WEAK IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE TROUGH IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
POLAR WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
MERGING INTO THE BROAD PRIMARY POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS NEAR/TO THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
..CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELD...IN CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL FORM BY 06Z ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...ALLOWING A RAPID ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ABOVE A WARM FRONTAL/RADIATIONAL INVERSION
LAYER. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WHERE WEAKER INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BUT...THE INITIATION OF
MORE VIGOROUS STORMS SEEMS MORE LIKELY DURING THE 06-09Z TIME
FRAME...AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AND...
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE BULK OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
02-03Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. BUT...LIMITED THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD...TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS.

..FLORIDA...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AS THE SURFACE LOW REFORMS TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO STILL EXISTS THIS EVENING...WITH INLAND PROGRESSING
CONVECTIVE BANDS/CELLS.

.KERR.. 09/20/2007

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KMLB [200036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 200036
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
836 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 PM HEAVY RAIN ORMOND BEACH 29.28N 81.06W
09/19/2007 M9.14 INCH VOLUSIA FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF RAIN FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TODAY
THROUGH 8 PM IN ORMOND BEACH.


&&

$$

DLJ

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KAMA [200032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 200032
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
732 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 19 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.63W
09/19/2007 MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER IN MOORE COUNTY CONFIRMED PREVIOUS
REPORT OF POWER LINES DOWN. HE INDICATED THAT 6
TELEPHONE POLES WERE SNAPPED...ALL POINTING TO THE NE.
THIS WAS JUST WEST OF FARM ROAD 1060 ON HWY 152 IN MOORE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

BROST

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KAMA [192354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 192354
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 PM TSTM WND GST GRUVER 36.26N 101.41W
09/19/2007 M69 MPH HANSFORD TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

BROST

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KAMA [192347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 192347
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM HAIL 11 SW GRUVER 36.14N 101.55W
09/19/2007 E1.00 INCH HANSFORD TX PUBLIC

ALONG FM 520

&&

$$

CK

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KEAX [192319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 192319
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM HAIL 2 NE PAOLA 38.60N 94.84W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH MIAMI KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

GAMIS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982

ACUS11 KWNS 192302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192302
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...NE CO...SW NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 672...

VALID 192302Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 672 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW KS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NNWWD WITH TIME. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NE CO AND SW
NEB...THE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SW
KS EXTENDING NWWD INTO ERN CO. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD INTO FAR SW
NEB AND FAR NE CO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F. INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND THIS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG IN THIS AREA AND SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS ON RADAR. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER TO THE WEST AND IF A SUPERCELL CAN
ORGANIZE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.

.BROYLES.. 09/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39599960 39590073 40010073 39990200 40410203 40410282
39570280 39590318 38510319 38510350 38240351 38270336
37650336 37640208 37730210 37730063 37480063 37479957

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KJAX [192255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 192255 CCA
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
654 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
09/19/2007 ST. JOHNS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR STREET FLOODING IN ST AUGUSTINE ON KING STREET.
SOME STREET FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN HASTINGS AREA.


&&

$$

ARS

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KJAX [192254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 192254
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
654 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
09/19/2007 U0.00 INCH ST. JOHNS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR STREET FLOODING IN ST AUGUSTINE ON KING STREET.
SOME STREET FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN HASTINGS AREA.


&&

$$

ARS

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KJAX [192239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 192239
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
639 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.86N 81.26W
09/19/2007 E46.00 MPH ST. JOHNS FL C-MAN STATION

THE C-MAN STATION ON ST AUGUSTINE PIER MEASURED A 46 MPH
WIND GUST. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 54 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.


&&

$$

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KJAX [192232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 192232
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
631 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM FLOOD FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/19/2007 FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

CAMINO DELMAR PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. A1A NORTH
OF BEVERLY BEACH CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED POWERLINE. A1A AND
SOUTH 20TH STREET BEGINNING TO FLOOD WITH AN ESTIMATED 8
INCHES OF WATER.


&&

$$

PP

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KDDC [192225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192225
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
524 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 6 SSE MEADE 37.21N 100.28W
09/19/2007 E0.88 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

LACY

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KMTR [192222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 192222
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
322 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 S TIBURON 37.86N 122.46W
09/19/2007 M39.00 MPH MARIN CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND MEASURED FROM ANGEL ISLAND. GUSTS TO 47 MPH


&&

$$

STANDERS

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KMTR [192159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 192159
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
259 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NNE SAN MATEO 37.56N 122.31W
09/19/2007 M45.00 MPH SAN MATEO CA ASOS

WIND MEASURED AT SFO.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW HALF MOON BAY 37.48N 122.45W
09/19/2007 M46.00 MPH SAN MATEO CA OTHER FEDERAL

OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM PILLAR POINT


&&

$$

STANDERS

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KDDC [192155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192155
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 3 S AMY 38.42N 100.61W
09/19/2007 E0.88 INCH LANE KS PUBLIC

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S AMY 38.42N 100.61W
09/19/2007 E60.00 MPH LANE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

RBURGERT

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KMFR [192153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 192153
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HEAVY SNOW N TENNANT 41.59N 121.91W
09/19/2007 M5.5 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 7 AM.


&&

$$

GLASER

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KGLD [192140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192140
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
340 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL GRINNELL 39.12N 100.63W
09/19/2007 E1.25 INCH GOVE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

WITH HEAVY RAIN

0338 PM HAIL GRINNELL 39.12N 100.63W
09/19/2007 M1.00 INCH GOVE KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KJAX [192138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 192138
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
09/19/2007 M10.31 INCH DUVAL FL CO-OP OBSERVER

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
09/19/2007 M8.85 INCH ST. JOHNS FL CO-OP OBSERVER

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E ARLINGTON 30.33N 81.52W
09/19/2007 M6.40 INCH DUVAL FL ASOS

SINCE EARLY MONDAY AT CRAIG FIELD


&&

$$

PP

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KMTR [192132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 192132
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
232 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NW SAN FRANCISCO 37.80N 122.47W
09/19/2007 M40.00 MPH SAN FRANCISCO CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

OBSERVATION FROM GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.


&&

$$

STANDERS

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KDDC [192130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192130
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ESE GARDEN CITY 37.93N 100.73W
09/19/2007 M59.00 MPH FINNEY KS ASOS


&&

$$

26

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KVEF [192121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 192121
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
221 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MERCURY 36.67N 116.00W
09/19/2007 M51 MPH NYE NV ASOS

DESERT ROCK ASOS.

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 SW ELGIN 37.25N 114.71W
09/19/2007 M57 MPH LINCOLN NV MESONET

KANE SPRINGS RAWS.


&&

$$

BFUIS

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KDDC [192040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192040
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S AMY 38.39N 100.60W
09/19/2007 E65.00 MPH LANE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [192026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192026
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0322 PM HAIL SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [192022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192022
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL 2 E CHARLESTON 37.87N 100.53W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH GRAY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 192002
SWODY1
SPC AC 191959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN INCLUDES MEAN TROUGH OVER WRN STATES AND
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGING FROM NERN MEX NEWD UP OH VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. BROAD MID/UPPER CYCLONE OFFSHORE FMY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WWD OR NWWD...CONTRIBUTING TO FL GEN THUNDER
POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/LARGE MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN CA --
IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SWD DOWN CA COAST BEFORE DECELERATING
LATE IN PERIOD IN GENERAL VICINITY MRY.

AT SFC...CYCLONE OVER N-CENTRAL/NERN NV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD FROM THERE
ACROSS UT/ID BORDER AREA...W-CENTRAL WY...SERN WY...NERN
CO...W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING/REFORMING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN KS IN FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT JUST S OF WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION
POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS EXTREME ERN CO AS STG HEATING AND AT LEAST
MRGL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO ERODE CINH. MOST FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP WILL REMAIN INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/SRH...AND LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND EVENTS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES IN WARM FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE LARGEST BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR LOWEST LCL ARE MOST LIKELY
TO BE JUXTAPOSED. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEARS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...INDICATING SVR POTENTIAL WILL DO LIKEWISE
AND BE MORE DISORGANIZED SWD INTO TX PANHANDLE.

REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981...WW 672...AND SUBSEQUENT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AS THEY ARRIVE...FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON
THIS HAZARD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK WITH HAIL
BECOMING MAIN CONCERN...HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING RELATED
TO WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER N OVER NRN PLAINS.

..NRN PLAINS...
STRENGTHENING LLJ IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND SFC WARM FRONT REPOSITIONS NWD. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
INCLUDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEEPEN
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER...DEEPEN BUOYANT LAYER
ALOFT...AND MOISTEN BASE OF CAPE PROFILE. AS ELEVATED MUCINH
WEAKENS...CONTINUING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HOIST PARCELS TO LFC IN
SOME LOCALES...RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS.
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 5000-1000 J/KG
MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

..NRN CA...
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO OFFSET WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW TSTMS THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAIL IS POSSIBLE...AND MINI-SUPERCELL WITH
BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT MAY NOT JUXTAPOSE WELL WITH BELT OF STRONGEST
MIDLEVEL WINDS WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.

.EDWARDS.. 09/19/2007

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KJAX [191954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191954
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/19/2007 M0.50 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES


&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [191953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191953
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/19/2007 M47 MPH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 672

WWUS20 KWNS 191940
SEL2
SPC WW 191940
COZ000-KSZ000-200200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON COLORADO TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR /S OF A WARM FRONT S OF I-70/ AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80S AND REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. EXPECT THE THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 35-50 KT...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.


..THOMPSON

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KJAX [191940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191940
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/19/2007 M7.32 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
09/19/2007 M6.44 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY AT THE EOC

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
09/19/2007 M5.60 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.21W
09/19/2007 M4.50 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TOTAL SINCE EARLY MONDAY


&&

$$

PP

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KMFR [191935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191935
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1229 PM SNOW 12 S TULELAKE 41.78N 121.47W
09/19/2007 M0.5 INCH SISKIYOU CA CO-OP OBSERVER

LAVA BEDS NATIONAL MONUMENT REPORTS LIGHT SNOW AT 9 AM.


&&

$$

GLASER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1981

ACUS11 KWNS 191912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191912
KSZ000-COZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E CNTRL CO THROUGH WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191912Z - 192145Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP NWD
TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO EWD THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL KS.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS ALONG A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON PERIPHERY OF REMNANT MORNING CLOUDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 30 TO 35 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WRN KS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WITH 40 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW STRATUS
IS MIXING OUT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD WITH TIME.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY
DEVELOP NWD WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DIAL.. 09/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37959937 37660083 37950262 39350200 39390092 38739944

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 191726
SWODY1
SPC AC 191724

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
W/NW KS...

CORRECTED TO REVERSE DIRECTION OF SLGT RISK LINE

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS AS A DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW DIGS SWD ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST...AND A POSITIVE
TILT RIDGE PERSISTS FROM TX TO THE OH VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC...WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS. THE WRN
PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL TODAY JUST S OF I-70 ACROSS
KS/MO...AND THEN BEGIN TO REFORM NWD TONIGHT ACROSS NEB/SD IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT SLY LLJ.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ALONG AND
S OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN KS/OK...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SW KS. AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 80 F WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...THUS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
W/NW KS. NW KS WILL BE ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER
SWLY FLOW...THOUGH 50+ KT FLOW IN THE 400-250 MB LAYER AND SELY
SURFACE WINDS/VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SHEAR...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM KS/NEB NWD TO THE DAKOTAS. MUCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DAKOTAS FROM 06-12Z...WHEN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST WAA PATTERN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM
06-12Z.

..N/NE FL...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SW FL IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS N FL...INVOF OF MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SUPERCELL RISK THIS AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.THOMPSON.. 09/19/2007

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KMQT [191724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 191724
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
09/19/2007 M58 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

AT THE GLOS SITE ON THE BREAKWALL


&&

$$

MRC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191718
SWODY2
SPC AC 191716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WRN
MEAN TROUGH...AND RIDGING FROM NERN MEX AND S TX NEWD TOWARD
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. WRN TROUGH WILL BE ANCHORED BY
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN ORE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE SWD OVER COASTAL CENTRAL CA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY AND ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF FROM NRN BELT OF WLYS BY END
OF PERIOD. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY WITHIN MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER SERN AK -- IS FCST
TO DIG SEWD ACROSS WRN CANADA...REACHING SASK AND PERHAPS SWRN MB BY
21/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PRAIRIES AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MT...WY AND
DAKOTAS. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM FAR NWRN ONT
SWWD ACROSS MN...SERN SD...NRN/WRN NEB. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING SHOULD EXTEND GENERALLY
N-S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED DRYLINE INTERSECTING COLD FRONT OVER W-CENTRAL OR SWRN
SD.

OTHERWISE...BROAD/WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW ANALYZED
OFFSHORE FMY -- SHOULD DRIFT WWD OR NWWD ACROSS ERN GULF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THAT
REGION...WITH SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO NHC OUTLOOKS. REF WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

..NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
MORNING MCS MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...WITH
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MID-DAY WITH LOSS OF LLJ-RELATED
ENHANCEMENTS TO ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON SVR...POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLULAR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS APPEAR TO BE
INVOF COLD FRONT BETWEEN DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL/ERN
SD...AND PERHAPS ALONG/N OF ADJOINING SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY INVOF WARM FRONT...WIND AND
HAIL ALONG COLD FRONT...AND HAIL BEING DOMINANT SVR MODE WELL N OF
WARM FRONT.

SRN PORTION OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND OVER NRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...PRECEDED BY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
AND STG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS DAKOTAS. AMIDST THIS
PROCESS...PRIND WEAK TRIPLE-POINT LOW WILL FORM BY 21/00Z AT FRONTAL
INTERSECTION...INVOF CENTRAL OR WRN PORTIONS ND/SD BORDER. ALTHOUGH
OPERATIONAL NAM SEEMS TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC MOISTURE RETURN
IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...UPSTREAM ANALYSES AND SREF CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE EACH SUGGEST LOW-MID 60S F DEW POINTS MAY EXTEND NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ERN SD/SWRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ROBUSTNESS OF MOISTURE RETURN...SFC HEATING AND LIFT/CONVERGENCE
NEAR TRIPLE POINT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DIURNAL INITIATION
POTENTIAL...BECAUSE STG CAPPING ALSO IS REASONABLY INDICATED IN
WRF/NAM-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST N OF WARM FRONT -- OR ALONG ANY FAVORABLY ALIGNED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LEFT BY MORNING ACTIVITY -- MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH
TORNADO RISK. PRIND MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE DURING
PERIOD OF WARMEST LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL
WINDS AND RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW...ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS IN FCST
SOUNDINGS YIELD POTENTIAL FOR 200-400 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH AROUND
21/00Z...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN 45-50 KT RANGE.

MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT-SVR
HAIL OR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- MAY COMPEL UPGRADE
IN PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS ERN SD/WRN MN. ATTM...POTENTIAL
LIMITATIONS ON COVERAGE IMPOSED BY CAPPING...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
UNCERTAINTIES...PRECLUDE LARGER UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ATTM
WITHIN CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA.

.EDWARDS.. 09/19/2007

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KMFR [191717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191717
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1017 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 AM SNOW 10 S BLY 42.25N 121.04W
09/19/2007 M1.5 INCH KLAMATH OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

HORSE FLY LOOKOUT. ELEVATION 6000 FEET. 9 AM PDT.

1008 AM FREEZING RAIN 15 W SILVER LAKE 43.13N 121.34W
09/19/2007 E0.00 INCH LAKE OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

BALD MOUNTAIN. ELEVATION 6700 FEET. 9 AM PDT. NO
MEASURABLE ACCRUAL.


&&

$$

GLASER

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KMFR [191658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191658
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
958 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM FREEZING RAIN BALD MOUNTAIN SUMMIT 39.33N 121.01W
09/19/2007 U0.00 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED AT AN ELEVATION OF 6700
FEET.NO AMOUNT WAS REPORTED.


&&

$$

SMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191632
SWODY1
SPC AC 191630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
W/NW KS...

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS AS A DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW DIGS SWD ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST...AND A POSITIVE
TILT RIDGE PERSISTS FROM TX TO THE OH VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC...WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS. THE WRN
PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL TODAY JUST S OF I-70 ACROSS
KS/MO...AND THEN BEGIN TO REFORM NWD TONIGHT ACROSS NEB/SD IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT SLY LLJ.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ALONG AND
S OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN KS/OK...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SW KS. AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 80 F WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...THUS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
W/NW KS. NW KS WILL BE ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER
SWLY FLOW...THOUGH 50+ KT FLOW IN THE 400-250 MB LAYER AND SELY
SURFACE WINDS/VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SHEAR...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM KS/NEB NWD TO THE DAKOTAS. MUCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DAKOTAS FROM 06-12Z...WHEN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST WAA PATTERN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM
06-12Z.

..N/NE FL...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SW FL IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS N FL...INVOF OF MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SUPERCELL RISK THIS AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/19/2007

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KMFR [191622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191622
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
922 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0921 AM SNOW LAKEVIEW 39.21N 119.80W
09/19/2007 M1.0 INCH CARSON CITY NV PUBLIC

1 INCH OF SNOW FALL WAS REPORTED NEAR LAKEVIEW AT AN
ELEVATION OF 4960 FEET.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KMFR [191620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191620
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 AM SNOW BEATTY 42.44N 121.27W
09/19/2007 E0.5 INCH KLAMATH OR PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED 0.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT AN ELEVATION OF
4400 FEET.

0914 AM SNOW KLAMATH 41.52N 124.04W
09/19/2007 M1.0 INCH DEL NORTE CA PUBLIC

1 INCH OF SNOW WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AT AN ELEVATION
OF 6500 FEET.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KJAX [191614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191614
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1214 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/19/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE TREE DOWN ON JOHN ANDERSON HIGHWAY IN FLAGLER BEACH


&&

$$

JHESS

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