Thursday, September 24, 2009

KMRX [250336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 250336
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1136 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1129 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW ABINGDON 36.64N 82.00W
09/24/2009 WASHINGTON VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VERY DEEP WATER ON AND FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 70.
REPORTED BY DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 250104
SWODY1
SPC AC 250102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEAR THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WERE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OTHER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH ERN KS. AS LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MOIST AXIS ACROSS NERN MO
AND IA AND SRN MN...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250032
SWODY1
SPC AC 250030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEAR THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WERE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OTHER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH ERN KS. AS LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MOIST AXIS ACROSS NERN MO
AND IA AND SRN MN...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2009

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KMEG [250012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 250012
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
712 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD BEMIS 35.58N 88.83W
09/24/2009 MADISON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN AND NEAR BEMIS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL INCLUDING CHESTER LEVEE AND PERRY SWITCH ROADS.
CAR STALLED OUT FROM EXCESSIVE WATER ON ROADWAY NEAR
MERIDIAN BAPTIST CHURCH. SPOTTER MEASURED 2.45 INCHES IN
1.5 HOURS.

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N VARDAMAN 33.91N 89.18W
09/24/2009 CALHOUN MS PUBLIC

EXCESSIVE WATER ON HIGHWAY 341 CAUSED CARS TO HYDROPLANE
AND LED TO AN ACCIDENT.


&&

$$

MBS

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KCYS [242343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 242343
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 1 N MINATARE 41.83N 103.50W
09/24/2009 E0.25 INCH SCOTTS BLUFF NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KMEG [242327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 242327
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD BEMIS 35.58N 88.83W
09/24/2009 MADISON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN AND NEAR BEMIS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL INCLUDING CHESTER LEVEE AND PERRY SWITCH ROADS.
CAR STALLED OUT FROM EXCESSIVE WATER ON ROADWAY NEAR
MERIDIAN BAPTIST CHURCH. SPOTTER MEASURED 2.45 INCHES IN
1.5 HOURS.


&&

$$

MBS

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KCYS [242250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 242250
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
450 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 17 WNW ALLIANCE 42.19N 103.18W
09/24/2009 E0.25 INCH BOX BUTTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KCYS [242229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 242229
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 4 E BAYARD 41.76N 103.25W
09/24/2009 M0.25 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [242201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 242201
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 1 E BAYARD 41.76N 103.30W
09/24/2009 E0.25 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KGID [242150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 242150
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
449 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TORNADO 5 E BEAVER CITY 40.14N 99.73W
09/24/2009 FURNAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 5 MILES EAST OF BEAVER
CITY


&&

$$

NWS

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KGLD [242132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 242132
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
332 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0322 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E BURLINGTON 39.31N 102.18W
09/24/2009 KIT CARSON CO PUBLIC

0331 PM FUNNEL CLOUD KANORADO 39.34N 102.04W
09/24/2009 SHERMAN KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

024

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KMEG [242124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 242124
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
424 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 ESE ABERDEEN 33.75N 88.33W
09/23/2009 MONROE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WOLFE ROAD FLOODED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. KGWX ESTIMATED
AROUND 3 INCHES IN JUST OVER ONE HOUR.

0800 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 WNW WALNUT 34.98N 89.00W
09/23/2009 TIPPAH MS POST OFFICE

HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT FIXED ROADS DAMAGED FROM EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 72 NEAR THE
TIPPAH AND BENTON COUNTY LINE.

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 SE GLENDORA 33.75N 90.19W
09/23/2009 TALLAHATCHIE MS POST OFFICE

EXCESSIVE WATER GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ON SEVERAL ROADS
NEAR PHILIPP DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

$$

MBS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 242052
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1216 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC INTO
WRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N OF MID/UPPER HIGH
RETROGRADING WWD THROUGH FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AN E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL INTERSECT THIS FORMER BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE SERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE
WEDGE FRONT OR "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONTAL PROPERTIES WHILE SAGGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 40S/ WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEB SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
KS.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER NEB INTO NRN KS /OWING
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER/...BEFORE INCREASING TO
30-40 KT THROUGH 6 KM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING OCCUR...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE
LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...

SIMILAR TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND COMPARATIVELY
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W/NW WITH ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/
EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LLJ DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD EXTEND OF AN MEANINGFUL AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO THE OH RIVER. MOREOVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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KLBF [242041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 242041
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 NE BIG SPRINGS 41.17N 101.94W
09/24/2009 KEITH NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COLD AIR FUNNELS FORMING BRIEFLY AND
DISSIPATING...REACHING HALF WAY TO THE GROUND.

0204 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 W BIG SPRINGS 41.06N 102.19W
09/24/2009 DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COLD AIR FUNNELS DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY IN AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...MOVEMENT UNKNOWN.

0231 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 N BRADY 41.08N 100.37W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

COLD AIR FUNNEL OBSERVED BRIEFLY REACHING HALF WAY TO THE
GROUND AND DISSIPATED.

0310 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 E MAXWELL 41.08N 100.41W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS BETWEEN BRADY AND MAXWELL
AND RELAYED THROUGH KNOP BY THOMAS KIPPEN.

0314 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W BRADY 41.02N 100.46W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN
MAXWELL AND BRADY.

0317 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 S MAXWELL 41.06N 100.53W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 242037
SWODY1
SPC AC 242003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0303 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

...WESTERN NE...
SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN LOW CENTER COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. INDICIES DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 242031
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1216 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC INTO
WRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N OF MID/UPPER HIGH
RETROGRADING WWD THROUGH FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AN E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL INTERSECT THIS FORMER BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE SERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE
WEDGE FRONT OR "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONTAL PROPERTIES WHILE SAGGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 40S/ WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEB SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
KS.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER NEB INTO NRN KS /OWING
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER/...BEFORE INCREASING TO
30-40 KT THROUGH 6 KM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING OCCUR...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE
LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...

SIMILAR TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND COMPARATIVELY
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W/NW WITH ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/
EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LLJ DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD EXTEND OF AN MEANINGFUL AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO THE OH RIVER. MOREOVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 242026
SWODY1
SPC AC 242003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0303 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

...WESTERN NE...
SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN LOW CENTER COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. INDICIES DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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KLBF [242018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 242018
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 S MAXWELL 41.06N 100.53W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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KLBF [242016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 242016
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W BRADY 41.02N 100.46W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN
MAXWELL AND BRADY.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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KLBF [242012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 242012
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
312 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 E MAXWELL 41.08N 100.41W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS BETWEEN BRADY AND MAXWELL
AND RELAYED THROUGH KNOP BY THOMAS KIPPEN.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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KPAH [242012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 242012
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM FLOOD OWENSBORO 37.76N 87.12W
09/24/2009 DAVIESS KY TRAINED SPOTTER

STANDING WATER ON SEVERAL ROADS ACROSS THE OWENSBORO
AREA.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 242003
SWODY1
SPC AC 242003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0303 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

...WESTERN NE...
SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN LOW CENTER COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. INDICIES DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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KLBF [241932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241932
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
232 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 N BRADY 41.08N 100.37W
09/24/2009 LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

COLD AIR FUNNEL OBSERVED BRIEFLY REACHING HALF WAY TO THE
GROUND AND DISSIPATED.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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KLBF [241905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241905
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0204 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 W BIG SPRINGS 41.06N 102.19W
09/24/2009 DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COLD AIR FUNNELS DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY IN AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...MOVEMENT UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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WATCHES: Test...severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 9999...test

WWUS20 KWNS 241903
SEL9
SPC WW 241903
NDZ000-242000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9999...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
205 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 205 PM UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG
AND 45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARRISON NORTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DICKINSON NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TEST

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 18035.


...15_OWS

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KOAX [241835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KOAX 241835 CCA
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
129 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0741 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
06/22/2009 E1.00 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

CORRECTED COUNTY OF REPORT


&&

$$

MILLER

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KOAX [241834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KOAX 241834 CCA
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
128 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 AM HAIL AUBURN 40.39N 95.84W
06/06/2009 E1.00 INCH NEMAHA NE TRAINED SPOTTER

CORRECTED COUNTY OF REPORT


&&

$$

MILLER

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KOAX [241829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 241829
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
129 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0741 AM HAIL LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W
06/22/2009 E1.00 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

CORRECTED COUNTY OF REPORT


&&

$$

MILLER

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KOAX [241828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 241828
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
128 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 AM HAIL AUBURN 40.39N 95.84W
06/06/2009 E1.00 INCH NEMAHA NE TRAINED SPOTTER

CORRECTED COUNTY OF REPORT


&&

$$

MILLER

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KGID [241825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 241825
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
125 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BERTRAND 40.53N 99.63W
09/24/2009 PHELPS NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD SITED NEAR BERTRAND


&&

$$

KB

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KGLD [241822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 241822
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 WSW INDIANOLA 40.21N 100.49W
09/24/2009 RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED.


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KLBF [241809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241809
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
109 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 NE BIG SPRINGS 41.17N 101.94W
09/24/2009 KEITH NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COLD AIR FUNNELS FORMING BRIEFLY AND
DISSIPATING...REACHING HALF WAY TO THE GROUND.


&&

$$

MBYRD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241745
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1216 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC INTO
WRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N OF MID/UPPER HIGH
RETROGRADING WWD THROUGH FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AN E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL INTERSECT THIS FORMER BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE SERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE
WEDGE FRONT OR "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONTAL PROPERTIES WHILE SAGGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 40S/ WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEB SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
KS.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER NEB INTO NRN KS /OWING
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER/...BEFORE INCREASING TO
30-40 KT THROUGH 6 KM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING OCCUR...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE
LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...

SIMILAR TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND COMPARATIVELY
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W/NW WITH ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/
EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LLJ DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD EXTEND OF AN MEANINGFUL AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO THE OH RIVER. MOREOVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241716
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1216 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC INTO
WRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N OF MID/UPPER HIGH
RETROGRADING WWD THROUGH FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AN E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL INTERSECT THIS FORMER BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE SERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE
WEDGE FRONT OR "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONTAL PROPERTIES WHILE SAGGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 40S/ WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEB SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
KS.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER NEB INTO NRN KS /OWING
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER/...BEFORE INCREASING TO
30-40 KT THROUGH 6 KM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING OCCUR...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE
LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...

SIMILAR TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND COMPARATIVELY
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W/NW WITH ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/
EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LLJ DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD EXTEND OF AN MEANINGFUL AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO THE OH RIVER. MOREOVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241706
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1123 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD TODAY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS THE MID
MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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KABQ [241656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 241656
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW GASCON 35.89N 105.45W
09/24/2009 M1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

8250 FEET

0856 AM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
09/24/2009 M3.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

10350 FEET...SANTA FE SKI AREA.

0856 AM SNOW 6 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.39W
09/24/2009 E3.5 INCH SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

9200 FEET...PAJARITO SKI AREA.

0904 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
09/24/2009 E1.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

10500 FEET...TAOS SKI AREA. ACCUMULATION AT THE TOP OF
THE HILL.


&&

$$

50

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241623
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1123 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD TODAY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS THE MID
MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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KABQ [241509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 241509
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
909 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
09/24/2009 E1.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

10500 FEET...TAOS SKI AREA. ACCUMULATION AT THE TOP OF
THE HILL.


&&

$$

KWIDELSKI

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KABQ [241500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KABQ 241500
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
900 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
09/24/2009 M3.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

10350 FEET...SANTA FE SKI AREA.


&&

$$

KWIDELSKI

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KABQ [241459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 241459
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
859 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW GASCON 35.89N 105.45W
09/24/2009 M1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

8250 FEET

0856 AM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
09/24/2009 M3.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

SANTA FE SKI AREA.

0856 AM SNOW 6 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.39W
09/24/2009 E3.5 INCH SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

9200 FEET...PAJARITO SKI AREA.


&&

$$

KWIDELSKI

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KJAN [241314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 241314
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
814 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM FLASH FLOOD BETHSAIDA 32.68N 89.03W
09/23/2009 NESHOBA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING THE ROADS IN THE BETHSAIDA COMMUNITY.


&&

$$

JCULIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241228
SWODY1
SPC AC 241225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/24/2009

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KJAN [241158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 241158
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N ACKERMAN 33.37N 89.17W
09/23/2009 CHOCTAW MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

A FEW RDS WERE FLOODED N OF ACKERMAN AND ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF THE COUNTY.


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [241021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 241021
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD MONTICELLO 31.55N 90.11W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODED IN THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WEST POINT 33.61N 88.64W
09/23/2009 CLAY MS PUBLIC

ROAD FLOODED IN THE TOWN OF WEST POINT.

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD PLEASANT HILL 31.72N 90.74W
09/23/2009 COPIAH MS PUBLIC

WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS IN PLEASANT HILL.

0629 PM FLASH FLOOD CALEDONIA 33.68N 88.33W
09/23/2009 LOWNDES MS PUBLIC

FLOODING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD SHUQUALAK 32.98N 88.57W
09/23/2009 NOXUBEE MS PUBLIC

A FEW COUNTRY ROADS FLOODED NEAR TOWN.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD DUCK HILL 33.63N 89.71W
09/23/2009 MONTGOMERY MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE ROAD WAS REPORTED TO BE COVERED WITH WATER.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E PRESTON 32.88N 88.74W
09/23/2009 KEMPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL VEHICLES FLOODED AND ROADS UNDER WATER AROUND
KELLIS STORE AND THE SCIPLES MILL COMMUNITIES. A BUILDING
AROUND THE MILL HAS KEPT RECORDS OF HIGH WATER MARKS
SINCE IT WAS FOUNDED AND THE CURRENT MARK IS THE 2ND
HIGHEST NEXT TO THE FLOOD OF 1983.


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [241020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 241020
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E PRESTON 32.88N 88.74W
09/23/2009 KEMPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL VEHICLES FLOODED AND ROADS UNDER WATER AROUND
KELLIS STORE AND THE SCIPLES MILL COMMUNITIES. A BUILDING
AROUND THE MILL HAS KEPT RECORDS OF HIGH WATER MARKS
SINCE IT WAS FOUNDED AND THE CURRENT MARK IS THE 2ND
HIGHEST NEXT TO THE FLOOD OF 1983.


&&

$$

CME

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240821
SWOD48
SPC AC 240820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

24/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH DEPARTURE OF INITIAL TROUGH OFF THE E COAST...NEXT
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY...FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
D4 INTO D5 /SUN SEP 27TH INTO MON SEP 28TH/. AN ASSOCIATED...STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.


THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY D7 /WED SEP 30TH/...IN ADVANCE OF NEXT TROUGH
INTENSIFYING OVER THE WRN STATES. THE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...ENHANCING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR TSTMS --SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE-- BY
D8 /THU OCT 1ST/. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT DELINEATION OF AN AREA.

..MEAD.. 09/24/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240712
SWODY3
SPC AC 240709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE ACCELERATING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING...UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE TRAILING EXTENSION SETTLES MORE SLOWLY SWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES. E OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WEDGE FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.


...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

A VERY NARROW WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST SATURDAY OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OWING TO EWD PROGRESSION OF
COLD FRONT FROM THE W AND COOL...STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES. THUS...DESPITE
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NARROW NATURE OF WARM SECTOR. BOTH
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT...THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL WIDEN...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL GULF STATES...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL SHEAR.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
S OF RETREATING WEDGE FRONT E OF THE APPALACHIANS. HERE
TOO...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO
THE N OF REGION WITHIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

PORTIONS OF REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ONCE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

...LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MIDWEST...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS INVOF MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM. HERE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AND SHOULD
SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AREA.

..MEAD.. 09/24/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240533
SWODY2
SPC AC 240532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC INTO
WRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N OF MID/UPPER HIGH
RETROGRADING WWD THROUGH FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AN E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL INTERSECT THIS FORMER BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE SERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME MORE
WEDGE FRONT OR "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONTAL PROPERTIES WHILE SAGGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 40S/ WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEB SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
KS.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER NEB INTO NRN KS /OWING
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER/...BEFORE INCREASING TO
30-40 KT THROUGH 6 KM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING OCCUR...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE
LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS...

SIMILAR TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
COMPARATIVELY STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W/NW WITH ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/
EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LLJ DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD EXTEND OF AN MEANINGFUL AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO THE OH RIVER. MOREOVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 09/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240520
SWODY1
SPC AC 240517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING ACROSS SERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LINGER FROM NRN NEB OR SRN SD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.


...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD THROUGH SRN MN
AND NRN IA BENEATH NERN PERIPHERY OF THERMAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE IN VICINITY OF MOIST AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT DIABATIC
WARMING OCCURS. HOWEVER...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SW OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER.
NET RESULT IS THAT ONLY MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST BUT
DEEP CONVERGENCE OVER THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AREA. ELY DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 09/24/2009

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KOHX [240506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 240506
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1206 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW LAWRENCEBURG 35.19N 87.40W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE TN EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED PERSON TRAPPED ON TOP OF CAR
AFTER IT FLOODED IN THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
LAWRENCEBURG.

0212 AM FLASH FLOOD LAWRENCEBURG 35.25N 87.34W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE TN EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER WEST
POINT ROAD IN THE CITY OF LAWRENCEBURG.


&&

$$

JBW

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